1. Spending Review 2004 IFS Press Briefing
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2. Public spending
Carl Emmerson
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3. Total spending growth
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Source: HM Treasury

4. Breakdown of spending growth
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Source: HM Treasury

5. Winners and losers? (3 years)
Average DEL increase = 4.1 per cent
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Source: HM Treasury

6. Winners and losers? (2 years)
Average DEL increase = 3.4 per cent
6.8
7.1
11.3
5.8
6.0
5.9
3.7
2.0
–1.2
5.1
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Source: HM Treasury

7. Plans and outturns: TME?
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Source: HM Treasury

8. Plans and outturns: DEL?
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Source: HM Treasury

9. Plans and outturns: AME?
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Source: HM Treasury

10. Civil service numbers over time
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Source: HM Treasury; IFS calculations

11. Civil service numbers over time
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Source: HM Treasury; IFS calculations

12. Admin spending
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Source: HM Treasury; IFS calculations

13. Admin spending: 10th time lucky?
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Source: HM Treasury; IFS calculations

14. Conclusions Slower spending growth in 06-07 & 07-08
NHS and defence relatively protected, slowdown in spending growth in all other areas
Greater efficiency growth needed for public services to improve at same rate
Previous projections have:
Underestimated growth in total public spending
Overestimated administrative savings
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15. The new child poverty targets
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Alissa Goodman

16. Background
“The Government’s long-term economic ambition is to halve child poverty by the end of the next decade as the Government moves forward with its commitment to end child poverty in Britain within the next twenty years”
Pre-Budget Report, 1999
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17. The new child poverty targets
Relative low income
“Halve the number of children in relative low-income households between and on the way to eradicating child poverty by 2020”
Material deprivation
Target will be set in 2006 when data becomes available
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18. Meeting the target
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19. Moving up the EU-15 league?
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Source: European Community Household Panel, 2001

20. More public spending needed?
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Child tax credit will need to be up-rated with earnings growth beyond 2005
Not factored into SR2004 projections for AME?

21. Growth in social security spending
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Note: Includes expenditure on tax credits
Source: HM Treasury

22. More public spending needed?
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Child tax credit will need to be up-rated with earnings growth beyond 2005
Not factored into SR2004 projections for AME?
Longer-term policies to change underlying income distribution also necessary

23. Conclusions Very ambitious target
Returns child poverty to pre-Thatcher era
Full costs not included in SR2004?
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24. Spending Review 2004 IFS Press Briefing
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