1. Charles L. Marohn, Jr. PE AICP @clmarohn | @strongtowns

2. SUPPORT A MODEL OF Development THAT ALLOWS AMERICA'S CITIES, TOWNS AND NEIGHBORHOODS TO BECOME FINANCIALLY STRONG AND RESILIENT

6. Initial cost to the public for new growth: minimal
Investment in the community….
Powerful Incentives
Initial cost to the public for new growth: minimal
Benefit to the public budget for new growth: substantial
The catch is that the public agrees to maintain the improvement forever.
…creates new growth…
…which increases tax revenue.

7. Invalid Assumptions The critical assumptions to this strategy:
Either growth continues at ever accelerating rates, or
The pattern of development ultimately generates more revenue than it costs to maintain.
Invalid
Assumptions

8. Local Street Project Road Improvement Project $6,600 cost per property
50% of costs assessed
37 years to recoup public contribution from adjoining tax base
Local Street Project

9. Local Road Rehabilitation
Road Maintenance Project
$354,000 total cost
79 years to recoup public expense from tax base
To break even requires a 46% increase in property tax rates
Local Road Rehabilitation

10. Industrial Development
Industrial Park Development
$2.1 million inflation-adjusted total cost
$6.6 million in improvements induced
Payback from current conditions happens in 29 years if all revenue devoted only to debt
Industrial Development

11. Growth Ponzi Scheme

12. Growth Ponzi Scheme

13. Growth Ponzi Scheme

14. http://andrewsullivan. theatlantic

15. Implications Serious implications for the future
The “Mechanisms of Growth” we have become accustomed to are waning.
Local governments are going to be forced to absorb the local costs of the current development pattern.
This can’t be done in the current pattern of development without large tax increases and/or large cuts in services.
Implications

16. What’s the solution?

19. Build it and they will come….

20. Build it and they will come….

24. High Return Investments

25. $1,136,500
$803,200

26. $1,136,500
$1,104,500
$803,200

27. -3%
$1,136,500
$1,104,500
$618,500
$803,200
-23%

28. High Return Investments
Auto Oriented $0.6 million/acre
Traditional Pattern $1.1 million/acre
High Return Investments

29. Buffalo 3-D Model Connecting Urban Design to Economics
Another way to look at how what’s built compares to its tax generation

30. Buffalo 3-D Model
Connecting Urban Design to Economics

31. Williamsville 3-D Model
Connecting Urban Design to Economics
Even in amherst we find that its most productive development tends to be small scale but urban, compact, and historic

32. Williamsville 3-D Model
Connecting Urban Design to Economics

39. STROAD STREET ROAD Slow traffic
Prioritze pedestrians, bikers, transit over automobiles
Intensify adjacent land use
Embrace complexity
Limit access
Segregate automobiles from other modes
Do not allow adjacent land use to degrade capacity
Simplify

40. What are the values we apply?
Engineer’s Approach Traffic Speed Traffic Volume Safety Cost Public’s Approach

41. Complete Streets accommodate pedestrians within an auto-dominated environment.

42. Productive Places accommodate automobiles within an environment dominated by people.

43. Innovation that happens from the top-down tends to be orderly but dumb.
Innovation that happens from the bottom-up tends to be chaotic but smart.