1. Progress on modelling emission scenarios
Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Progress on modelling emission scenarios

2. I. Emission scenarios for the Kiev 2003 report
Objective: Explore ancillary benefits of Kyoto implementation options in Europe

3. Scenarios for the Kiev report
Energy scenarios developed with RIVM/IMAGE/TIMER model, for groups of countries
5 alternative energy scenarios:
BL: Baseline: No constraints on GHG emissions
UA: Unilateral implementation of Kyoto/Marrakech cuts on GHG, EU bubble
TFU: 10% reduction of GHG in Europe
TWB: International trading of GHG reductions, banking of 80% of the ‘hot air’ emissions of the Former Soviet Union
TWOHA: International trading, no ‘hot air’ allowed

4. Emission controls assumed
Energy and emission statistics for used to calibrate RAINS database
Emission controls assumed:
Gothenburg Protocol / NEC Directive
LCP Directive
Fuels Directives
Auto-Oil 2

5. SO2 emissions 2010

6. NOx emissions 2010

7. Preliminary conclusions
LCP Directive will over-fulfill NEC Directive for SO2
More optimistic assumptions about structural changes will lead to lower emissions in accession countries
For 2010, differences in air pollution impacts of implementation alternatives of Kyoto Protocol are limited, given the present legislation on air pollution

8. II. Emission projections for the northern hemisphere up to 2020

9. Emission legislation (1)
Europe: Gothenburg Protocol of CLTRAP EU legislation: National Emission Ceilings Directive (2000)
Former Soviet Union (FSU): Action implied by Gothenburg Protocol for European part of Russia
North America (US + Canada): US Clear Skies Initiative Ozone Annex of Canada-U.S. Air Quality Agreement

10. Emission legislation (2)
China: 10th Environmental 5-years Plan
East Asia (Japan, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, etc.): Review of national legislations
South Asia (India): Essentially uncontrolled
Mexico, Middle East, North Africa: Not included in this analysis

11. SO2 emissions

12. NOx emissions

13. VOC emissions

14. CO emissions

15. Conclusions
“Classical” anthropogenic air pollutants (NOx, CO, VOC, SO2) unlikely to grow in the northern hemisphere in next 20 years
(Controlled) increase in developing countries compensated by controls in industrialized countries
But: “safe” air quality levels will not be achieved
In industrialized countries only limited potential for further technical emission controls will remain
Developing countries started to control mobile sources; for stationary sources only SO2 controlled