1. ACT Enrollment Managers Conference
Chicago, Illinois
Before we get started, WICHE would like to thank ACT and the College Board for their generous financial support of Knocking at the College Door. Without their partnership and collaboration, these projections would not be possible.
AT THE COLLEGE DOOR
Tuesday, July 18, 2017
#Knocking2016

2. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates
Public and Private High School Graduates
Nation
Four Geographical Regions
50 States and DC
First-time projections for Guam/Puerto Rico
Public by Race/Ethnicity
For over 40 years, WICHE has produced projections of the numbers of high school graduates. We do the projections for public and private high school graduates for the nation, four geographical regions, 50 states and DC. For the first time, we made projections for Guam and Puerto Rico. We also do projections by race/ethnicity for public high school graduates.
I’d also like to mention a few details about the data.
We use most recent available data from federal data sources.
U.S. Department of Education public data files
Common Core of Data (National Center for Education Statistics)
Number of births by state and race/ethnicity through 2014, to predict the general trend of youth population through school year
Private School Universe Survey (PSS) for private schools
Race/ethnicity data are for Publics only
Most recent available enrollments data were for school years to
Most recent high school graduates counts were for to
We provide robust detail in the publication, but what this means is that our projections begin in the past – with school year by and large.
Methodology is relatively simple: We use a cohort survival ratio method. Which means that we observe, mathematically, the ratio of the number of students who are in a grade one year compared to the number in the earlier grade the year prior. We use an average from the most recent five years, and give the greatest weight to the most recent year.
We do not explicitly model or quantify the various factors that influence how students progress through school, such as grade retention or early promotion, movement between schools, locales or states, economic or other environmental factors. They are implicit in the enrollment and graduate counts and progression ratios.
You can find detail about the data and methodology in the appendix of the publication.

3. U.S. High School Graduates
The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade
The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population
Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share
So, let’s begin with the national trends for high school graduates.
The big national headlines are that despite the recent improvements in the official high school graduation rate, the sheer number of youth is moderating. This leads to a slowdown and even declines in the number of high school graduates. And, underlying the limited growth and eventual decreased number of high school graduates are long-predicted decreases in the number of White youth – including those who attend and graduate from private schools -- and growing non-White student populations.

4. Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, School Years to (Actual) through to (Projected)
This figure shows the long-term trend of high school graduates to 2013, in grey, are actual counts. Past that, in black, the projections through are shown.
After 15 years of steady increases—from 2.52 million in 1996 to 3.47 million in 2013 (the latest year that confirmed graduate counts are available)—it appears that the annual number of U.S. high school graduates will level out at around 3.4 to 3.5 million graduates.
WICHE’s projections indicate that the number of graduates per year, nationally, will average around 3.4 million through 2023, before peaking at 3.56 million prior to This peak, fueled by an increase in the number of non-White high school graduates, represents a 3 percent increase in the number of graduates over the previous high of 3.47 million graduates in 2013.
Beyond 2026 or so, the number of high school graduates will decline as fewer children born during the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery enter high school through the early 2030s. The number of high school graduates is projected to drop 8 percent after 2025, to 3.25 million.
And, as we release these projections, there is no indication of a sustained upward trend in births to suggest a sudden increase in high school graduates after that point.

5. U.S. High School Graduates
Compared to SY
(Thousands)
640 Hispanic
184 Asian/Pac. Isl.
32 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
474 Black
298 Private Schools
1,839 White
+151
White
+58 -9
Hispanic
-34
White public school graduates are projected to decrease by 17 percent by the early 2030s, about a quarter million fewer graduates than in In barely a decade and a half ago around 2000, Whites represented 70 percent of all high school graduates. They are projected to be 52 percent of public school graduates by the end of the projections. Unforeseen increases in the number of non-White high school graduates could tip the balance to majority-minority within the span of these projections.
Hispanic high school graduates are the primary growth population, increasing almost 50 percent by 2025, from 640,000 in 2013 to almost 900,000. During the growth years, the additional number of Hispanic graduates more than offsets the declines of White graduates. But then even Hispanic graduates are projected to decrease in number between 2025 and the early 2030s, as a result of the recent birth declines, which were greatest among Hispanics.
Asian/Pacific Islander graduates are the only population projected to increase throughout, but they are only about 5 to 7% of the total number of graduates nationally, so their numbers don’t shift the overall trend of decline.
Black high school graduates are about 15 percent of the national total and they will be relatively steady in number throughout the projections.
The numbers for American Indian/Alaska Native students nationally are very small compared to other students populations, but overall there is a decline.
High school graduates from private religious and independent schools are projected to decrease by about 26 percent, to about 80,000 graduates, in reflection of their largely White student demographic, but also due to significant contraction among religious schools over the last decade or so.
We couldn’t produce separate counts for Hawaiian/Pacific Islander graduates or two or more races graduate, because of data limitations. But recent years indicated Hawaiian/Pacific Islander graduates are about 7 percent of the combined Asian total, or about 10,000 high school graduates in recent years. Graduates of multiple races have represented between 1 to 3 percent of non-Hispanic public high school graduates in recent years.
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private schools

6. Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity, School Years to (Actual) through to (Projected)
Private
Overall, there are projected to be consistent declines in the number of White public high school graduates in the coming years. And, robust growth of graduates of color (or, technically, "non-White" public high school graduates). This figure illustrates the changing distribution of graduates between and , the last confirmed year, in the lighter shades. And then out to 2032, in the darker shades. The primary racial and ethnic groupings are indicated by the colors here, throughout our charts.
Hispanics include any individuals with Hispanic origins, regardless of their race. And all race categories are non-Hispanic by definition.
Here one sees that barely a decade and a half ago around 2000, Whites represented 70 percent of all high school graduates. (That is, 69 percent of public high school graduates, plus approximately 76 percent of private high school graduates). White public high school students decrease to 52 percent of public school graduates by the end of the projections.
With the share of White public high school graduates projected to hover around 52 percent in the last projected years, the racial/ethnic makeup of the nation's high school graduating classes is nearing the tipping point between majority and minority. Unforeseen increases in the number of non-White high school graduates could tip the balance within the span of these projections.
Robust growth in the number of non-White public school graduates—Hispanics and Asian/Pacific Islanders in particular—will act as a counterbalance to the declining numbers of White graduates, even though they are starting from a substantially smaller numerical base compared to Whites, and therefore even this growth is not projected to mitigate the overall flattening trend driven by the decreases in the number of Whites.

7. White High School Graduates in Decline
Compared to SY
1,839,000
-114,000
Shown here is the long-predicted decline in the number of White public high school graduates that began in 2007.
By around 2025, when the nation is projected to see some overall increase in the number of high school graduates, there will be about 110,000 fewer White public high school graduates than there were in 2013.
By 2030 the number of White public school graduates is projected to decrease by 17 percent compared to where it starts here in , a decline of more that ¼ of a million graduates.
-252,000

8. Hispanics Are the Primary Growth Engine
Compared to SY
+277,000
+151,000
640,000
This shows Hispanic high school graduates, the primary growth engine, numerically speaking. The number of Hispanic high school graduates is projected to increase by 50 percent or more from the first projected year shown here, to the high point of almost 920,000 graduates around 2025.
This is an increase of almost 280,000 graduates in the 12 years between 2013 and The number of Hispanic public high school graduates is then projected to decline back to around 785,000 in the early 2030s, a 14 percent contraction over these five to seven years.
This decline is related to the decline in birth rates that occurred in recent years and was sharpest among Hispanics.

9. Steady Increase of Asian/Pacific Islander High School Graduates
Compared to SY
+58,000
+26,000
184,000
There is also steady increase projected for the number of Asian/Pacific Islander public high school graduates, shown here. About 40,000 more Asian/Pacific Islander public high graduates are expected by the early 2030s compared with 2013, increasing from 185,000 to 240,000, representing an increase of up to 30 percent.
This represents a relatively smaller increase than the magnitude of growth projected for Hispanic public high school graduates. By the end of the projections, however, Asian/Pacific Islander public high school graduates are the only student population projected to continue to gain, while all other populations are expected to begin declining after the high point around 2025.
We were not able to produce separate projections for the Hawaiian/Pacific Islander portion of the Asian/Pacific Islander combined total. But, the available data indicate this separate population is about 7 percent of the combined total, for the nation and most states.

10. Black High School Graduates Decline Slightly
Compared to SY
474,000
-2,900
-34,000
The number of Black public high school graduates recently reached a high of around 480,000 in 2010 through 2012, just before the starting year shown here. But between now and the early 2030s, the number of Black, non-Hispanic public high school graduates is projected to gradually decline by about six percent.
Their numbers will vary between 467,000 and 440,000 over the next 15 years.
There are two additional student populations not separately charted for this presentation.
American Indian/Alaska Native public high school graduates represent about 1 percent of the total number of public high school graduates currently, or about 32,000 graduates annually in recent years. Their numbers are projected to decline in every year of the projections, to about 23,000 by the early 2030s.
It was not possible to produce reliable projections from the available data for public high school graduates of two or more races. The available data indicate that students of two or more races represented 1 to 3 percent of all non-Hispanic public high school students in the years between and This represents almost 52,000 graduates in , which increased 27 percent over three years to 66,000 graduates in It may take several years for these numbers to stabilize enough to allow projections to be computed.

11. U.S. Private High School Graduates, School Years to (Actual) through to (Projected)
302,168
The number of high school graduates from private religious and nonsectarian schools is projected to decline at an even greater rate than the overall trend --- from 302,000 in the last year for which confirmed graduate counts are available for private schools, shown here where the grey line ends, to about 220,000 by the early 2030s—a decrease of 80,000 graduates, or 26 percent.
We do not have race/ethnicity for Private school graduates. But other recent data show that about 76 percent of Private school graduates, nationally, are White.

12. Converging Populations, 2013-14 to 2031-32
(52%)
(48%)
One way of interpreting these trends is to talk about the coming switch to “majority-minority” graduating classes nationally– which is when the number of White graduates will be less than the sum of all other races of graduates. This is a major demographic shift in itself, so a useful view of the trends. White graduates were 70 percent of all high school graduates in 2000, barely 15 years ago. They are projected to be 52 to 53 percent of high school graduates by the early 2030s. Unforeseen increases in the number of high school graduates from other racial/ethnic groups could shift the balance within the span of these projections.
However, since we only have race/ethnicity for public schools, this chart doesn’t account for the 10 percent of the graduates who are from private schools. And, it places Asian graduates in the non-White category, which is technically correct but maybe of limited use given Asian graduates are typically more similar to White students in terms of educational achievement and attainment.
Only showing race/ethnicity for public school graduates (90% of total graduates)

13. Significant Regional Variation
The national projections mask significant variation by region and among the states.
The national projections mask significant variation by region and among the states.

14. Regional Divisions
This slide is here to demonstrate to the audience how we define the regions.( It’s important to note that North and South Dakota are part of the WICHE region (the Census regions have the Dakotas in the Midwest). You can go through this slide fast.)

15. Significant Regional Variation
Total Public and Private High School Graduates, to
1,352,600
SOUTH
862,000
776,820
WEST
MIDWEST
647,036
Here we see those regional differences. The number of graduates for each region you see here is the region’s high point.
The Northeast and Midwest reached their high points for high school graduates in school year The number of graduates from these regions have already begun decreasing and will continue to decline throughout the projected years.
The West region – which includes North and South Dakota because they are WICHE member states -- produces about 30 percent of the nation’s high school graduates. The West has long produced the most diverse classes of high school graduates and the greatest number of Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander graduates. But by the early 2020s the South region will surpass the West in the number of Hispanic high school graduates, and will rival the West in terms of diversity.
NORTHEAST

16. South Region High School Graduates
Compared to SY
(Thousands)
229 Hispanic
39 Asian/Pac. Isl.
12 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
268 Black
96 Private Schools
590 White
+137K
+99K
+31K
-5K
These charts show the trends of increase or decrease by race/ethnicity.
The South is the engine of growth for high school graduates. It is the only region that is projected to experience an increase in the number of high school graduates over 2012 numbers, for every year of the projections.
The South’s share of the nation’s graduates was 43 percent in the last confirmed year, Around 2025, it is projected that states in the South will generate almost 47 percent of the nation’s high school graduates, about 1.35 million. After this high point, the South is projected to produce about 45 percent of the nation’s high school graduates through the end of the projection period—an average of 1.25 million high school graduates per year.
-22K
Asian/Pacific Islander
-41K
Private schools
Private schools
-46K

17. West Region High School Graduates
Compared to SY
(Thousands)
278 Hispanic
86 Asian/Pac. Isl.
14 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
42 Black
54 Private Schools
356 White
+65K
+3K
+2K
-4K
-8K
The West’s share of the nation’s graduates is projected to be about 30 percent of the total throughout the projection period. The West is projected to reach its new high point in with about 860 thousand high school graduates. It will remain the second-highest-producing region behind the South during the course of these projections, although it is expected to drop back slightly to about 784 thousand graduates by the early 2030s.
-14K
-37K
-39K

18. Midwest Region High School Graduates
Compared to SY
(Thousands)
56 Hispanic
23 Asian/Pac. Isl.
4 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
88 Black
64 Private Schools
527 White
+39K
+22K
+12K
Thousands
-9K
-17K
The number of high school graduates in the Midwest and Northeast regions is, generally speaking, in decline. In school year , the Midwest generated 22 percent of the nation's high school graduates (about 762,000 graduates). By the early 2030s, the Midwest is projected to have 93,000 fewer high school graduates, a decline of 12 percentage points compared to
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private schools
-75K
-82K

19. Northeast Region High School Graduates
Compared to SY
(Thousands)
76 Hispanic
37 Asian/Pac. Isl.
2 Am. Ind./Alaska Native
76 Black
84 Private Schools
365 White
+45K
+35K
+17K
Thousands
-10K
Hispanic
Hispanic
-25K
Black
Black
The trend is broadly the same for the Northeast, which produced around 639,000 graduates in percent of the national total. By the early 2030s, the number of high school graduates in the Northeast is projected to decrease by about 72,000 graduates, a decline of 11 percentage points compared to
Whereas there will be moderate increases of high school graduates in the South and West in the next 10 years before heading into the slump caused by the recent decline in birth rates, the decline in high school graduates in the Midwest and Northeast is projected to play out consistently year-over-year without pause.
These regions both have increases of non-White graduates, particularly Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander graduates. But, not in great enough numbers to offset the declines of White graduates.
Asian/Pacific Islander
Asian/Pacific Islander
Black
Private schools
Asian/Pacific Islander
Private schools
-60K
-94K

20. State Variation in Percent Change of High School Graduates, 2013- 2025
Nation: 4.7%
Of course, there is considerable variation by state, even from the regional trends. I’ve used maps to depict whether each state will have fewer or more graduates overall, at two points in time.
Warmer gold colors indicate larger graduating classes than 2013, white means relatively the same in number, and blue means fewer graduates.
This map is for 2025, which is the year of the next highest number of graduates for the nation, and the majority of states predicted to have larger graduating classes in 2025 than 2013.
Between the projected growth in high school graduates is about 4.7 percent for the nation.
See Knocking pages for Top 10 States & state annual change.

21. State Variation in Percent Change of High School Graduates, 2013-2030
Nation:
-4.0%
And this map is for 2030, where you see a lot of ‘cooler’ color, which most states predicted to have fewer graduates than currently.
Between the projected change in high school graduates for the nation is -4.0 percent – which almost replaces the previous growth in high school graduates from
See Knocking pages for Top 10 States & state annual change.

22. Top 10 States with a Majority of U.S. High School Graduates
In 2013
From 2013 to 2025
From 2025 to 2032 CA
456,000
-25,000
-5%
-37,000
-9% TX
314,000
61,000
19%
-6,000
-2% NY
212,000
2,000 1%
-14,000
-7% FL
176,000
17,000
10%
-16,000
-8% IL
153,000
-10,000
-18,000
-13% PA
146,000
-4%
-8,000
-6% OH
135,000
-12%
-9,000 MI
111,000
-10% NJ
109,000
-12,000 NC
101,000
9,000 9%
The point here is that there is quite a bit of variation between the states – even between the top ten highest producers. Let’s glance at the situation for the 10 states that produce about 55% of the nation’s grads.
Out through 2025, you see growth for several large southern states. And decreases of varying amounts for the other of these large states.
Then, all of these top 10 states are projected to lose in number of graduates past 2025.
See pp , and Appendix A Data Tables of Knocking full report

23. College Enrollment of Traditional Age Students
Black & Hispanic Rates Up 10% by 2014 from 1995, but Lag Whites by 5%
Asian
65.4
62.5
52.9
Black
So, what do these trends mean for college enrollment? We don’t make projections of college enrollment. But, current rates of enrollment in college soon after high school give an idea at least in the short term. This chart shows the rates by subpopulation. As Hispanic graduates gain in number, their lower rates of enrollment and persistence suggest that college enrollment levels will be suppressed even more than what we can expect given there will also be overall decreases in the number of high school grads.
And the chart on the right shows the rates by family income levels. And we’ll look at the correspondence of race, income and high school grads in a few slides.
51.6
Hispanic
NCES Digest of Education Statistics Percent of year olds who completed HS in a given year enrolled in college by October of that year.

24. College Enrollment of Traditional Age Students
Even Greater Variation by Income
Upper 20%
Middle 60%
62.5
Lower 20%
So, what do these trends mean for college enrollment? We don’t make projections of college enrollment. But, current rates of enrollment in college soon after high school give an idea at least in the short term. This chart shows the rates by subpopulation. As Hispanic graduates gain in number, their lower rates of enrollment and persistence suggest that college enrollment levels will be suppressed even more than what we can expect given there will also be overall decreases in the number of high school grads.
And the chart on the right shows the rates by family income levels. And we’ll look at the correspondence of race, income and high school grads in a few slides.
NCES Digest of Education Statistics Percent of year olds who completed HS in a given year enrolled in college by October of that year.

25. College Enrollment Projections to 2024
Total (Thousands)
By Age Group (Thousands)
We don’t make projections of future college enrollments. But the Federal education agency, NCES, does, and these are their most updated college enrollment projections out through 2024.
This shows the current enrollment slowdown, with steeper declines of students 25 or older – the dotted lines.
The black and grey lines are traditional age students And they track closely with what we predict for high school graduates—pretty flat for several more years and then increasing slightly approaching the year 2025.
But NCES projects even greater rates of increase for older students over the next five years.
Now--moving back to a few statistics about school age youth that may indicate what is to come.
NCES Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

26. College Enrollment Projections to 2024
2010
to 2015
to 2019
2019
to 2024
All students
-4% 7%
18 to 24 3% 4% 6%
25 or older
-14%
12% 9%
This table provides a simple view of the previous chart. As you can see between the overall decline in college enrollment is in large part from the decline in Adult students (25 or older) – However, looking from 2010 to 2019 and then 2019 to 2024 – adult college students are projected to have larger increases of growth
Now--moving back to a few statistics about school age youth that may indicate what is to come.
NCES Projections of Education Statistics to 2024

27. Increasingly Likely 1st Generation Students
Children Age 5-17 by Parents’ Highest Level Educational Attainment, U.S., 2015
The coming waves of high school graduates will include increasingly more first generation students. This is the distribution of American children, ages 5 to 17 in 2015, by the highest level of education of at least one of their parents. The lighter bar portions are children with a parent having an Associate’s or higher degree. The darker bar portions are children with parents with some college education or other lower level of attainment.
70 percent of children of Asian race live with a parent with a college degree, 61 percent of White children do, 35 percent of Black children do, and 25 percent of Hispanic children live with a parent with a college degree.
Since this reflects children ages 5-17 in 2015, it is a fair sense of high school graduates over the next years
==================
There are greater educational Gaps for Parents than for Adults y.o.  All Races, 41% || Asian/PI , 61% || White, 46% || Black, 29% || Hispanic, 21% || Amer. Ind., 24%
NCES 2015 Digest of Education Statistics From ACS data. Children grouped by child’s race/ethnicity.

28. Increasingly from Lesser Means
Income Distribution of Households With Children, U.S.,
Each bar segment is 20%, up to 95%
Medians
 All Households
 HHs with children
Given current circumstances, coming waves of high school graduates will have increasing numbers of youth from families with incomes below the average.
These are estimates of family income for households including children aged 18 or younger. In each bar, the segments of varying height represents the income range for 20 percent of the households.
We also show median income, or the average, for families with children and the median of all households regardless of children.
These data indicate that a much higher percent of Black and Hispanic families have incomes lower than the overall median family income—and much lower than White or Asian families.
And, the median overall income for households with children is higher than the overall population median—even more with Asian and White-headed families. Black and Hispanic families do not appear to have that same advantage.
[Each bar ends at 95 percent of households, because the highest incomes are basically theoretical in income estimates. These data are grouped by the race/ethnicity of the responding householder, so there are likely some nuances for households that have adults of more than one race or ethnicity.]
Wealth and assets by households’ race/ethnicity -- median wealth for Black and Hispanics -- overall not limited to families – is about 10x less than the White median.
American Community Survey PUMS Five-Year Estimates

29. www.knocking.wiche.edu Report State Profiles Download Data
You can obtain the projections in a variety of formats by going to our website at
You can get PDF copies of the report or order a hard copy of the report.
You can download the projections as an Excel file on the Data page. And, you can view State, Regional and National Profiles about the projections and including other contextual indicators such as academic preparation, educational attainment and family incomes by race/ethnicity for the state.

30. www.wiche.edu/knocking #knocking2016 Want to Learn More? Joe Garcia
President, WICHE
Demarée Michelau
Vice President,
Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE
Peace Bransberger
Senior Research Analyst , Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE
#knocking2016