1. 6 June PME Topic “Outsmart Your Own Biases”
Purpose: Discuss techniques for managing biases in order to improve decision making
REF: Outsmart your Own Biases, HBR 2015
Idea in Brief
The Problem. Cognitive biases muddy our decision making. We rely too heavily on intuitive, automatic judgements, and even when we try to use reason, our logic is often lazy or flawed.
The Cause. Instead of exploring risks and uncertainties, we seek closure—it’s much easier. This narrows our thinking about what could happen in the future, what our goals are, and how we might achieve them.
The Solution. By knowing which biases tend to trip us up and using certain tricks and tools to outsmart them, we can broaden our thinking and make better choices
Issues for Discussion
Think about the future
Make three estimates
Think twice
Use ‘premortems’
Take an outside view
Think about objectives
Seek Advice
Cycle through your objectives
Even the smartest people exhibit biases in their judgements choices. It’s foolhardy to think we can overcome them through sheer will. But we can anticipate and outsmart them by nudging ourselves in the right direction when it’s time to make a call.
Application (Sea Services)
What is the danger of not recognizing biases?
To the decision maker?
To the organization?
What strategies exist to effectively balance outsmarting biases and maintaining operational tempo?
How does this article relate to decision space? Why do leaders value decision space?
Is there a business case for managing biases?
What is the correlation between improving decision making and mission accomplishment?
Terms of Reference
Bias is an inclination or outlook to present or hold a partial perspective, often accompanied by a refusal to consider the possible merits of alternative points of view. (Wikipedia)
System 1 thinking – automatic judgements that stem from associations stored in memory—instead of logically working through the information that’s available. (Soll, Milkman, and Payne, HBR May 2015)
System 2 thinking – deliberate reasoning gone awry. (Soll, Milkman, and Payne, HBR May 2015)