1. The Confluence of Water Resources and National Security Where, why and how policy currents converge. Daene McKinney & Steve Pitman Transboundary Water Resources

2. Water Resources National Security Water in the landscape (above and below ground) with current or potential value to the community and the environment. - Western Australia Water and Rivers Commission Condition of a nation’s safety from threats, especially threats from external sources. - McGraw Hill Online

3. Two Perspectives: Water Resources professionals: When and how will national security affect water resources? National Security professionals: When and how will water affect national security?

4. Analysis: Why, when & how have links developed? CAUSES Can we predict future occurrences? Can we predict future occurrences?INDICATORS

5. River Basin Case Studies River Basin Case Studies  Jordan Syria, Israel, JordanSyria, Israel, Jordan  Nile Ethiopia, Sudan, EgyptEthiopia, Sudan, Egypt  Indus India, PakistanIndia, Pakistan  Tigris-Euphrates Turkey, Syria, IraqTurkey, Syria, Iraq

6. Jordan Basin  Post WWI – Mandates  1948 – State of Israel  1950’s – plans  1960’s – conflicts  1967 – Six Day War  PLO attacks  1980’s threats  1990’s treaties  2000’s 2nd Intifadeh www.glowa-jordan-river.de

7. Jordan Basin  Politically charged  Population 10M+ double in 30 yearsdouble in 30 years  Already “water stressed”  Boundary issues  Allocation inequities www.glowa-jordan-river.de

8. Nile Basin  Interested in 3 of 9 basin countries  Egypt Lowest riparianLowest riparian Most dependentMost dependent Most powerfulMost powerful Big US aid recipientBig US aid recipient  Ethiopia Contributes mostContributes most Uses leastUses least PoorestPoorest  Sudan – in between www.thewaterpage.com

9. Nile Basin  Colonial cash-crop economies  1929 Treaty  Century Storage Scheme  1959 Treaty  Aswan High Dam  Cold War politics  Civil wars www.thewaterpage.com

10. Indus Basin  1859-1915 - British build canals for flood control and irrigation  1947 – Partition India – key headwatersIndia – key headwaters Pakistan – bulk of canals and farmlandPakistan – bulk of canals and farmland  1948 – India cuts flow, Pakistani crops fail, Pakistanis call for war  1952-60 – World Bank mediation  Indus Water Treaty earthtrends.wri.org www.iucn.org

11. Tigris-Euphrates Basin  Earliest water conflicts  Turkey Source of both riversSource of both rivers GAP - $30B projectGAP - $30B project  Syria very dependent on Euphrates  Iraq totally dependent on both rivers  1975 – Crisis between Iraq and Syria  1990 – Ataturk Dam earthtrends.wri.org

12. Analysis National Security-Water Resources Linkage Common Factors:  Arid areas w/ irrigated agriculture  Power imbalance (economic/military)  Presence of non-water disputes  Non-joint development  Outside influences*

13. CAUSES National Security-Water Resources Linkage  Jordan Basin Conflict exists before water disputesConflict exists before water disputes One state alters status by occupying territoryOne state alters status by occupying territory  Nile Basin Lower riparian completely dependentLower riparian completely dependent Powerful country publicly announces linkPowerful country publicly announces link  Indus Basin Water policy of one state affects interest of lower riparianWater policy of one state affects interest of lower riparian  Tigris-Euphrates Actions fuel unease over future possibilitiesActions fuel unease over future possibilities

14. (Old) INDICATORS National Security-Water Resources Linkage  Unilateral development of international river –Postel & Wolf  Change in political boundaries creating new riparians -Wolf  Existing mechanisms unable to cope with changes -Wolf

15. Postel & Wolf : Foreign Policy – September/October 2001

16.  Previous retrospective indicators 1.Unilateral development of a basin 2.Change in political boundaries creating new riparians  New predictive indicators 3.Significant non-water-related tensions exist in the basin 4.At least one basin state’s water resources are vulnerable or nearly fully utilized (New) INDICATORS National Security-Water Resources Linkage

17. Indicating Linkages Between Water Resources and National Security  At least one indicator from each column implies conditions are present for a water resources-national security policy linkage  Three or four indicators present signifies higher likelihood of policy linkage  Uzbekistan found itself in the position where all four applied, so what did they do?

18. Syr Darya Basin

19. Uzbek National Security Policy Related to Water  Water became a National Security Policy issue  Decision taken to regarding water resources Two new reservoirs built and infrastructure modernizedTwo new reservoirs built and infrastructure modernized Invest hard currencyInvest hard currency New water management regimeNew water management regime Required relinquish (some) authorityRequired relinquish (some) authority  Provided sufficient new storage to capture winter Kyrgyz releases  Uncoupled the basin-wide interconnection between the countries  Provided a secure source of water for economic development