2. 10 Public Opinion and Political Socialization
Pollsters use Google search results to track interest in the 2012 presidential candidates, Governor Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama.

3. 10
Video: The Big Picture
What do Americans think? Author Larry J. Sabato explains why public opinion polls may not be the most accurate way to learn how Americans feel about issues, and he reveals how experts can make pretty accurate guesses on how you’ll vote—without ever having met you.
TO THE INSTRUCTOR: To access the videos in this chapter, please enter your Pearson or MyPoliSciLab username and password after clicking on the link on the slide.

4. 10
Learning Objectives
Trace the development of modern public opinion research
10.1
Describe the methods for conducting and analyzing different types of public opinion polls
10.2
The Founders of the country recognized that “all government rests on public opinion.” In this chapter, we’ll learn the process of political socialization, which describes how Americans form their values and beliefs about politics. Pollsters and politicians take frequent polls to measure what Americans think about policies, even though most Americans have little knowledge about complex political matters.
Still, as we we’ll learn in this chapter, public opinion has a critical influence on what politicians do and say.

5. 10 Learning Objectives Assess the potential shortcomings of polling
10.3
Analyze the process by which people form political opinions
10.4

6. 10
Learning Objectives
Evaluate the effects of public opinion on politics
10.5

7. 10
Video: The Basics
How do people form opinions? In this video, we examine how we know what opinions the public holds, and how they come by those opinions. As we go along, you’ll discover that Americans aren’t always well informed about government and policies, but that they share core values.

8. Roots of Public Opinion Research
10.1
Roots of Public Opinion Research
The Earliest Public Opinion Research
The Gallup Organization
The National Election Studies
Public opinion is what the public thinks about an issue or a particular set of issues. Polls are used to estimate public opinion.
Almost since the beginning of the United States, various attempts have been made to influence public opinion about particular issues or to sway elections. Presidential polling has been around since 1916, and George Gallup was the first to use scientific polling methods to determine public opinion.

9. The Earliest Public Opinion Research
10.1
The Earliest Public Opinion Research
Polling to predict winner of elections
Polling to discover public opinions
Walter Lippmann’s Public Opinion
Literary Digest
Straw poll
Sample
As early as 1883, Americans used polling to try to predict the winners of presidential elections. But public opinion research didn’t really emerge as a science until the 1930s, following the publication of Walter Lippmann’s book Public Opinion in As political scientists gained interest in public opinion in politics and other walks of life, different methods to capture it were tried. The survey was the primary method.
The popular magazine Literary Digest was a pioneer in the use of the straw poll, an unscientific survey used to gauge public opinion, with initial success. That success ran out, however, when the magazine in 1936 predicted the defeat of President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who actually won in a landslide. It later became clear that the upper middle class had been overrepresented in the sample of Americans the magazine had surveyed.

10. 10.1 Is polling always accurate?
Not only did advance polls in 1948 predict the Republican nominee Thomas E. Dewey would defeat Democratic incumbent President Harry S Truman, but on the basis of early and incomplete vote tallies, some newspapers’ early editions published the day after the election declared Dewey the winner. In this photo, a triumphant Truman holds aloft the Chicago Daily Tribune.

11. The Gallup Organization
10.1
The Gallup Organization
George Gallup
Dissertation on how to measure the readership of newspapers
Expanded research to study public opinion about politics
Increased use of polling to market products and candidates
Newspapers—like the Chicago Daily Tribune held by President Harry S. Truman with the famous “Dewey defeats Truman” that got the 1948 presidential election predictions wrong—probably wished they’d hired a pollster named George Gallup. Gallup wrote his dissertation at the University of Iowa on how to measure the readership of newspapers. He later expanded his research to include public opinion about politics.
Soon businesses and politicians were using polling to discover what the market wanted. The Gallup Organization continues to predict the winners of presidential elections.

12. 10.1 FIGURE 10.1: How successful has the Gallup Poll been?
Figure 10.1 shows how close the Gallup Organization has come to predicting the outcome of presidential elections since 1936.

13. 10.1
Video: In Context
How did the emergence of scientific polling in the twentieth century change our democracy? In this video, Columbia University political scientist Robert Y. Shapiro outlines the history of polling and the emergence of public opinion as a major factor in American politics.

14. The American National Election Studies
10.1
The American National Election Studies
Focuses on attitudes of the electorate
How voters voted
Party affiliation
Opinions of parties and candidates
Surveys before and after mid-term and presidential elections
Efforts to measure public opinion have benefited from social science surveys, such as the American National Election Studies, or ANES, which is funded largely by the U.S. government through the National Science Foundation.
ANES asks citizens how they voted, what their party affiliation is, and their opinions of parties and candidates. The ANES conducts surveys before and after mid-term and presidential elections, and has compiled long-term studies of the electorate.

15. Video: Thinking Like a Political Scientist
10.1
Video: Thinking Like a Political Scientist
Uncover some of the new questions being asked by political scientists regarding public opinion. In this video, Columbia University political scientist Robert Y. Shapiro examines some of the new public opinion trends that are being researched.

16. Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion Polls
10.2
Conducting and Analyzing Public Opinion Polls
Designing the Survey and Sample
Contacting Respondents
Analyzing the Data
Those who conduct polls must first determine what questions they want answered and how to phrase those questions. Then they must determine the sample, or subset, of the group whose attitudes they wish to measure. Finally, they have to figure out how to contact respondents. The different types of polls include telephone polls, in-person interviews, and Internet polls. And once the results are in, they must be analyzed.

17. Designing the Survey and Sample
10.2
Designing the Survey and Sample
Determining the content and phrasing of the questions
Wording is crucial
“Push polls”
Selecting the sample
Population
Random sampling
Stratified sampling
Before pollsters can ask anyone anything, they must ask themselves a number of critical questions first. When it comes to the content and phrasing of the poll, special care must be taken in constructing the question; differently phrased questions could lead to different answers.
Especially in politics, sometimes the intent of the poll is to skew the results by negatively phrasing the question. These are called push polls, and they might ask a respondent: “If you knew Candidate X beat his wife, would you vote for him?” Reputable pollsters avoid push polls.
Once the questions are selected, pollsters must determine the population whose attitudes they want to gauge. If it’s simply the population at large, pollsters might use a random sampling. If they’re looking at specifics in income, family size, or ethnicity, they might use stratified sampling, which is based on U.S. Census data that provide the number of residences in an area and their location.

18. Contacting Respondents
10.2
Contacting Respondents
Telephone polls
Random digit dialing survey
Despite the increase in cell phones and decrease in landlines, telephone polling is still the chief form of polling used in surveys, especially during campaign season. The most common type of telephone poll is the random digit dialing survey, in which a computer selects a phone number for dialing.

19. How are polls conducted?
10.2
How are polls conducted?
Telephone polls are the most common type of poll. This photograph shows survey researchers who work at a phone bank.

20. Contacting Respondents
10.2
Contacting Respondents
Telephone polls
Tracking polls
Sometimes campaigns use tracking polls, in which a small sample of people are polled every 24 hours. These allow campaigns to measure short-term developments and the effects of certain campaign strategies.

21. 10.2 FIGURE 10.2: What does a daily tracking poll look like?
Figure 10.2 shows the day-to-day fluctuations in public opinion on electoral contests.

22. Contacting Respondents
10.2
Contacting Respondents
In-person interviews
Exit polls
Internet polls
Scientific polls versus unscientific Web polls
Some polls, however, such as the American National Election Studies, use in-person interviews. The most common of these types of polls are the exit polls that are conducted as citizens emerge from voting on Election Day.
Finally, there are Internet polls. Some polling companies have devised scientific strategies to ensure that the results of Internet polling are legitimate, but they aren’t to be confused with so-called Web polls that allow anyone to weigh in on a topic.

23. 10.2
Analyzing the Data
Reveals implications for public policy and political campaigns
Data analyzed by computers
Subgroups of population, such as men versus women, age groups, or political ideology, may be analyzed
Reporting the data
News organizations or campaigns
Data gathered from the poll must be analyzed for meaning. This step reveals the implications of the data for public policy or for political campaigns. The data are crunched by computers, which may further break down the information by subgroups. This allows campaigns to see how their candidate is faring among women versus men, or in a certain age group.
Once the data have been analyzed, the results are generally reported. This could be done by the media or directly by a campaign.

24. Explore the Simulation: You Are a Polling Consultant
10.2
Explore the Simulation: You Are a Polling Consultant
In a country the size of the United States, public opinion polling is essential if representatives are to understand how their constituency feels about important issues. In this simulation, you’ll act as a polling consultant for a member of Congress and learn how to conduct accurate and reliable polls.

25. Shortcomings of Polling
10.3
Shortcomings of Polling
Survey Error
Limited Response Options
Lack of Information
Difficulty in Measuring Intensity
Lack of Interest in Political Issues
Polls may have several shortcomings that create inaccuracies. These include:
• survey errors
• not having enough respondent options to reflect public opinion on an issue
• polling those who lack the information necessary to accurately respond
• the inability to measure the intensity of public opinion on an issue
• the public’s lack of interest in political issues

26. Survey Error 10.3 Margin of error Sampling error
Natural errors in statistical measurement
Sampling error
Happens when a pollster draws an improper sample
Because polls are based on a sample that’s intended to reflect the general public, the results are close but not exact. Polls allow for a margin of error. Typically, the margin of error in a sample of 1,000 people is plus or minus about 4%. So if 52% of the people in a sample of 1,000 say they plan to vote for Candidate X, pollsters can predict that between 48 to 56 people support this candidate.
Another type of survey error is the sampling error. This occurs when pollsters fail to sample all elements of a population. For example, the poor and the homeless are generally underrepresented in polls.

27. Limited Response Option
10.3
Limited Response Option
Yes/No (Approve/Disapprove)
May not give respondents sufficient room to answer
“Feeling thermometer”
Respondents rate feelings 0-100
There are problems with limited response options in polls. Respondents who feel very strongly about an issue or are somewhat neutral about it may not be able to adequately—or accurately—respond to a poll that offers only yes/no or approve/disapprove options.
For that reason, some pollsters—including the American National Election Studies—use a feeling thermometer style of question, in which respondents rate from 0 to 100 their feeling on a given prompt.

28. Lack of Information and Difficulty Measuring Intensity
10.3
Lack of Information and Difficulty Measuring Intensity
Filter questions
Gauge how much respondents know about or have thought about an issue
Responses to personal questions/moral value questions
Feelings stronger about some issues
Depending on the issue, respondents may not have enough background information about an issue to accurately answer poll questions. In these cases, especially if the poll is about a complex policy or budgetary issues, the pollster may first ask a filter question to determine how much a respondent knows or has thought about the issue. Based on this response, up to 20% of respondents could be excluded from the rest of the poll.
Most people have opinions about personal or moral issues, such as drugs, crime, or abortion. When asked questions about these areas, respondents give fewer “no opinion” or “don’t know” responses.
Another shortcoming of polls is that they can’t measure the intensity of a respondent’s feelings. A person might say yes to a question about absentee ballot laws but not care that much. On the other hand, a person who responds to a question about the war on terror may have very strong feelings.

29. 10.3 Can polls measure intensity of opinion?
One of the greatest shortcomings of many public opinion polls is that they measure direction of public opinion, but not intensity. Here, members of the Westboro Baptist Church demonstrates intense opposition to homosexuality by protesting at a military funeral.

30. Lack of Interest in Political Issues
10.3
Lack of Interest in Political Issues
Many people lack an opinion on certain policies
Policies that don’t affect people directly
Policies that don’t involve moral values
Foreign policy
Less likely to generate interest
Domestic policy
More likely to generate interest
Many people have a difficult time forming an opinion on policies that don’t appear to affect them directly or aren’t connected to a moral value question. This is especially true with Americans and foreign policy. Domestic policies, such as those affecting health care, bank bailouts and employment are more likely to generate Americans’ interest.

31. 10.3
Explore Public Opinion: What Do Young People Think about Politics Today?
Would your answers to a poll be hampered by a lack of interest?
How much effect can you have on public policy? What do you think of the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street? Let’s explore these questions in more depth by completing this activity.

32. Forming Political Opinions
10.4
Forming Political Opinions
Demographic Characteristics
Family, Peers, and School
The Mass Media
Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers
Political Knowledge
The first step in forming opinions occurs through a process known as political socialization. Demographic characteristics—including gender, race, ethnicity, age, and religion—as well as family, school, and peers, all affect how we view political events and issues. The views of other people, the media, and cues from leaders and opinion makers also influence our ultimate opinions about political matters.

33. POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

34. POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION
AN ONGOING, LIFE-LONG PROCESS: ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION, BELIEFS, ATTITUDES, AND VALUES.
POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION HELPS US COMPREHEND THE POLITICAL SYSTEM.
HELPS US LEARN TO BE CITIZENS. (MEMBERS OF A POLITICAL SOCIETY)

35. AGENTS OF SOCIALIZATION PEOPLE & INSTITUTIONS WE COME IN CONTACT WITH THAT INFLUENCE OUR BELIEFS

36. Family, Peers, and School
10.4
Family, Peers, and School
Family influence #1 Agent of Political Socialization
Children learn political beliefs at early age
Political socialization in school
Peers are influential in middle or high school
Young children begin absorbing political views from their parents an an early age. As they grow into their elementary and middle school years, children become more influenced by their peers. Groups such as the Girl Scouts of America recognize the power of peers and have developed programs to give girls a favorable view of politics. Schools also play a significant role in political socialization. Public school students may start the day with the Pledge of Allegiance. In college, students are taught critical thinking skills to help them hone their political views.
Activity: Ask your students to consider the role of schools as agents of political socialization. Have them identify the numerous ways in which schools socialize children politically. Examples might include the pledge of allegiance, education about our political system, the inculcation of patriotism and nationalism, and so on.

37. FAMILY HAS STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON PARTY I.D. 98%
HOW DOES FAMILY INFLUENCE OUR BELIEFS?

38. AGENT #2- SCHOOLS & EDUCATION
HOW DOES THE EDUCATION WE RECEIVE IMPACT ON OUR POLITICAL VIEWS?
PEERS DO YOU & YOUR FRIENDS DISCUSS ISSUES? STUDIES SHOW WHEN PEERS ENGAGE IN POLITICAL DISCUSSION, POLITICAL ATTITUDES ARE FORMED AND SOLIDIFIED

39. STUDIES SHOW THE MORE FORMAL EDUCATION ONE RECEIVES, THE MORE KNOWLEDGE OF ISSUES AND EVENTS, THE MORE LIKELY TO PARTICIPATE

40. Demographic Characteristics
10.4
Demographic Characteristics
Race and ethnicity
Differences among and within races and ethnicities
Age affects political socialization
Aging increases your political participation and the strength of your party attachment.
Religion shapes political beliefs
Gender
Women historically more liberal than men
The views of African Americans and Hispanics on a variety of issues are often quite different from those of whites, particularly when it comes to the environment and health care.
Older people support programs like Medicare, while younger voters tend to resist higher taxes to pay for it. Conversely, older people tend to resist increases in taxes to pay for schools.
And religion is unquestionably a factor in political view formation, especially on hot-button social issues like abortion rights.

41. 10.4
TABLE 10.1: Do men and women think differently about political issues?
This table breaks down how men and women tend to think about certain political issues.

42. 10.4
How do you encourage young women to think about careers in politics?
This photograph shows members of a Girl Scout troop in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Girl Scouts has started a program, Ms. President, to encourage girls to think about public service. How else can we encourage women to think about careers in politics?

43. 10.4
FIGURE 10.3: What are the ideological identifications of first-year college students?
Nearly a majority of first-year college students describe themselves as middle of the road. The percentage of students identifying as conservative or liberal has remained relatively consistent since the 1990s. Liberal and far left students make up slightly higher proportions of first-year students than do conservatives. 43

44. The Mass Media 10.4 Traditional news sources Nontraditional news media
Americans are turning away from them
Nontraditional news media
Talk radio, online magazines, blogs
Cable and Internet
Often skewed
Instead of using news broadcasts on the major networks and daily newspapers as the major source of information, Americans are turning to TV talk shows, talk radio, online magazines, and blogs.
Cable and Internet news sources are often skewed. According to one study, Americans who get most of their news from cable news outlets such as Fox News and MSNBC are less knowledgeable about political issues than people who don’t pay attention to political news.

45. MOST GET INFORMATION FROM TELEVISION PEOPLE TEND TO GRAVITATE TOWARDS MEDIA THAT MATCHES THEIR VIEWS

46. Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers
10.4
Cues from Leaders or Opinion Makers
Political leaders use media to influence public
President uses media as a bully pulpit
Political leaders use the media to influence the political views of Americans. One of the reasons Americans may be swayed with relatively little effort is the general lack of deep conviction with which most Americans hold many of their political beliefs. And though the president may not be the influencer-in-chief, he can be very persuasive on political matters by using his “bully pulpit.”

47. INTEREST GROUPS

48. PEOPLE ARE ATTRACTED TO GROUPS WITH SIMILAR VIEWS - GROUPS SUPPORT AND STRENGTHEN PARTY I.D. -GROUPS HELP INSPIRE POLITICAL PARTICIPATION

49. Political Knowledge 10.4 Gender gap
Also affected by education, number of children, and marital status
Political knowledge and political participation
Have a reciprocal effect on each other
Americans’ level of civic knowledge
Lower than 50 years ago
Political knowledge and political participation go hand in hand. Without knowledge about the political system, people can’t effectively participate. The more they participate, the greater their understanding about public affairs.
Most Americans have a low level of civic knowledge—lower, in fact, than it was 50 years ago. How do you respond to college students today knowing less about civics than high school students did 50 years ago? Americans know even less about foreign policy and geography.

50. 10.4 TABLE 10.2: What is the extent of Americans’ political knowledge?
This table notes the percentage of Americans who can’t identify the majority party in the House of Representatives, the Speaker of the House, the British Prime Minister, a photo of Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, or Israel on a map.
Activity: Public opinion surveys consistently reveal an astounding lack of public knowledge about politics. Ask your students to discuss whether the American political system is affected by such a low level of public information.

51. ASIAN AMERICANS IDENTIFY MORE WITH REPUBLICANS
And there’s a gender gap. Women know less than men about politics, unless the issues are of special interest to women. Political knowledge is also affected by factors such as education, number of children, and marital status.
CAUCASIAN MALES IDENTIFY WITH REPUBLICANS
LATINOS AND JEWISH MORE
DEMOCRATIC

52. REGION

53. GEOGRAPHY Solid South – Use to be DEMOCRATIC, shifting to REPUBLICAN North East – Generally DEMOCRATIC (MA, NY, RI, PA), REPUBLICAN (NH, ME, VT, CT) West – CA – DEMOCRATIC Middle America – REPUBLICAN Source: Miller & Shanks 2003

54. EVENTS

55. Political Socialization
Macro Level Political Socialization – how do politics transmit values, beliefs, opinions & behaviors to the mass public.
Name me 9 agents of political socialization
Micro Level studies ask: how & why do people become citizens
What does it mean to be a good citizen?
The citizen as loyal subject or patriot, the citizen as voter, the citizen as enlightened community participant

56. Political Socialization
Civic Engagement
Robert Putnam
Volunteering, voting, campaign participation, attending a town meeting, join a political party, contact a public official, keep informed about government & current affairs, political discussions, run for elected office.
Non – electoral civic engagement – volunteering in a soup kitchen, joining a neighborhood association, advocating on behalf of a person in need, buying “green” product to save the planet.
What makes a person in the 21st Century?
What disappeared?
- Why it matters?
- What caused it?
- Putnam's argument is it plausible?
Time burning activities – watching ?, surfing the internet, texting.

57. Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on Politics
10.5
Toward Reform: The Effects of Public Opinion on Politics
Public has become more of a critical player in national and international politics
Polling a key part of that involvement
Politicians pay close attention to public opinion. They tailor their campaigns or drive policy decisions based on what they know about the public’s views. This makes the public much more of a critical player in national and international policy. Focus on public opinion is due in part to the rise in the number of polls being conducted, analyzed, and reported. Political scientists say this shows how the public’s views, registered through public opinion polls, can affect policy.

58. Video: In the Real World
10.5
Video: In the Real World
Should politicians listen more to their constituents (who may not be educated about all of the issues), or to their own sense of what’s right and wrong? Hear real people weigh in on this question, and learn how presidents have dealt with it in the past.

59. 10
Discussion Questions
What role do polls play in policy making? Should public opinion be considered when the government makes policy decisions? How much influence should public opinion have?

60. 10
Video: So What?
Does a good president listen to his people or to his principles? Author Larry J. Sabato discusses why presidents sometimes need to choose their gut over public opinion—especially because figuring out what the public wants is never an exact science.

61. 10 Further Review: On MyPoliSciLab Listen to the Chapter
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