1. Eugene Poolman RSMC Pretoria
Southern African SWFDP (Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project) Enhancing the early warning against weather extremes in Southern Africa
Eugene Poolman
RSMC Pretoria

2. The Concept of SWFDP
Dramatic developments in weather forecasting science over the past decades
Increasing gap in developing countries of application of modern forecasting technology (NWP, EPS) in early warnings
WMO initiated SWFDP concept to reduce this gap and improve EWS in developing regions using existing technology; ?

3. Main Project Activities
First SWFDP sub-regional project in Southern Africa from Nov 2006 to Nov 2007 in 5 countries
Involved 3 global centers, regional center and 5 national meteorological centers
Included 2 annual training sessions for forecasters building capacity in advanced forecasting technology
Success of demonstration project lead to rollout to all 16 Southern African countries from 2008 to 2010
Broadened hazards from heavy rain and strong wind to winter weather, high seas

4. Concept of Cascading Information
Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities;
SWFDP:
Concept of Cascading Information
Regional centre interprets information from global centres, Prepare guidance forecasts for NMHSs, run limited-area model to refine products
NMHSs issue alerts and warnings to Disaster Management and public

5. SA SWFDP Products Regional: RSMC Pretoria 5-day guidance daily
12 km UM LAM
Additional MSG products
Global:
NOAA, ECMWF,
Met Office
NWP products
EPS products
SWFDP Web Portal
National:
NMCs of all Southern African
countries
Improved forecasting
5 day lead-time on warnings when needed
Improved coordination with disaster management
Feedback on NWP, EPS, guidance

6. Examples of EPS Products from Global Centers

7. Examples of Regional NWP
RSMC Pretoria:
Unified Model SA12
RSMC La Reunion:
Aladin 10km

8. Examples of SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC Pretoria
RSMC prepares guidance every day for the next 5 days
Hazards include heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell, severe winter weather (snow, cold)
Guidance info made available through dedicated webpage

10. Example: Tropical Cyclone Favio
TC Favio caused widespread damage over Mozambique and Zimbabwe from Feb 2007
It provided the opportunity to test the SWFDP cascading process
It contributed to the lessons learned in the demonstration period

11. Improving the Lead-time of Warnings

12. Impact of Tropical Cyclone Favio
The model guidance correctly
indicated landfall 5 days in advance
where, and movement towards Zimbabwe
Both Mozambique and Zimbabwe’s NMCs issued
warnings 5 days in advance to disaster management departments
Mozambique:
Provinces were put on alert levels 2 to 3 days in advance
The public responded well and major loss of live were
prevented
Zimbabwe:
Public received early warnings by radio, TV and
newspapers 5 days in advance

13. Other Tropical Cyclone examples

16. Lessons from Southern African SWFDP
It proved that the technology gap can be effectively bridged through a practical, operational approach
SWFDP was successful because:
Its simplicity and operational focus (NMSs only needed internet)
It took the autonomy of countries in Southern Africa into account – nothing was imposed, they issue warnings according to their own criteria
It had direct benefit and participation of each role-player
It built capacity that could be directly used in an operational environment by all countries involved
Southern African SWFDP was successful in building the forecasting capacity and closing the technological gap
Comment from a disaster manager:
“I can see the increase in confidence of the forecasters…”

17. Challenges and Future Related to TIGGE
Emphasized the challenge of forecasting convective storms by NWP and EPS
These are the systems causing havoc particularly in tropical and sub-tropical regions = need for new products?
Looking forward
The need for keeping EWS in Southern Africa current with new developments
New technology: TIGGE GIFS, FFGS, etc
New applications : End-users, Disaster Management
Working towards multi-model EPS: TC tracks,etc
Working towards regional specific EPS products (thresholds, etc)
Keep in mind: research capacity is limited to few countries in the region

21. Thank you