1. Using Models for Reactivation
To Model or Not to Model
Using Models for Reactivation

2. Presenters
Steve Veto
V.P. of Consulting Services
Aegis Premier Technologies
1490 W. 121st Ave., Suite 201
Westminster CO 80234
PH:
Roger Hiyama
SVP, Client Services
Wiland
1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 600
Alexandria VA 22314
PH:
Jan Parrott
Direct Mail Manager
Sisters of St. Francis
St Francis WI
PH:

3. Subsequent Activity (25-36 Mos) Lapsed 2+Yr Reactivated
Reactivation Models
Why mail to a Lapsed Donor?
Subsequent Activity (25-36 Mos)
Donors
Gifts
Revenue
Avg Gift
GPD
RPD
Conversion Rate
LTV / Donor
Donor Segment
New Donors (2014)
2,991
5,189
$65,730
$12.67
1.73
$21.98
27.03%
$16.48
New
New Donors (2015)
3,370
6,092
$80,564
$13.22
1.81
$23.91
26.18%
$18.36
New Donors TOTAL
6,361
11,281
$146,294
$12.97
1.77
$23.00
26.57%
$17.49
Reactivated Lapsed 1 (2014)
1,909
3,018
$44,823
$14.85
1.58
$23.48
42.35%
$26.74
Lapsed 1Yr Reactivated
Reactivated Lapsed 1 (2015)
1,999
3,238
$47,246
$14.59
1.62
$23.64
41.38%
$25.74
Reactivated Lapsed 1 TOTAL
3,908
6,256
$92,070
$14.72
1.60
$23.56
41.85%
$26.22
Reactivated Lapsed 2+ (2014)
1,460
2,294
$35,992
$15.69
1.57
$24.65
33.20%
$21.83
Lapsed 2+Yr Reactivated
Reactivated Lapsed 2+ (2015)
1,408
2,222
$37,922
$17.07
$26.93
32.30%
$21.87
Reactivated Lapsed 2+ TOTAL
2,868
4,516
$73,914
$16.37
$25.77
32.75%
$21.85

4. Use of traditional RFM segmentation can be effective … up to a point
Traditional RFM Selection for Lapsed Names
Use of traditional RFM segmentation can be effective … up to a point
Recency and Frequency drive response; Monetary drives revenue
Recency and Frequency become relatively unimportant after 37+ months
That’s where external information becomes very important

5. What is a Reactivation Model?
To Model or Not to Model?
What is a Reactivation Model?
A reactivation model is a program that examines the organizations current active database (00-12 month responders) and typically compares it against items like previous response behavior, buying tendencies, gender, religion, political voting tendencies, home ownership vs. rental, number of automobiles, last response outside the organization, etc.
Some models look at over 400 different characteristics or items, and applies weights to each item based on how many active donors match up against any particular item.
A MODEL summary weight is assigned to each lapsed name that is processed against the Model.

6. Score = Ax + By + Cz What is a Model? (simple terms)
A Primer on Modeling
What is a Model? (simple terms)
Multivariate Scoring Equation
Score = Ax + By + Cz
X, Y, Z = Significant variables
A, B, C = weight or significance
Model then broken down into segments
01 = top segment
No model
Model

7. What is a Significant Variable?
Modeling Overview
What is a Significant Variable?
Consider the flipping of a coin
If you flip it, 100 times --- it should come up 50 heads and 50 tails
If you flip it 100 times and it came up 55/45, you’d think that to be a reasonable
But if you flipped it 1,000 times and it came up 550 heads and 450 tails, you’d likely think that to be significantly different

8. The Power of Coop Data

9. The Power of Coop Data

10. Different Types of Models for Reactivation
Profile Models
Response Models
Response-Driven
Revenue - Driven
Key Differences Between Responders and Non-Responders
Look-a-Like/
Clone

11. Significant Variables in a Model

12. Examples of Significant Variables in other Catholic Models

13. Scoring Equation/ Model
List Optimization Models
Client Database
Lapsed portion
Scoring Equation/ Model
Scored Lapsed

14. Profile vs. Response Models for Reactivation1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
More names at the top
Doesn’t provide as much differentiation
Use only if response models aren’t possible
Differentiates well
For Quality – use revenue driven model
For Quantity – use response driven model

15. What type of weight or code is actually applied to each lapsed name.
Reactivation Models
What type of weight or code is actually applied to each lapsed name.
Each Model is a little different in applying the weights.
Some models have 10 segments or deciles, others may have 20 or even 40 segments
Other Models use 3 or 4 digit weight codes where the higher codes are the most likely to respond.
note: For this presentation, we will be using the DECILE weights.

16. Why use Models with Reactivation?
Reactivation Models
Why use Models with Reactivation?
The use of MODELS has proved to improve the reactivation response rates by determining those donors most likely to respond vs. those least likely. Usage of Models will reduce your reactivation cost.
By applying the model weights, you can mail the top 1/3 of the lapsed donors 3 times instead of mailing the whole file once and you will have a much higher response rate giving you a higher volume of reactivated names with a lower overall cost.
You still should include at least deciles 04 to 07 in some mailings within the year.
Note: A reactivated name is typically worth more to your organization after 3 years than a new name.

17. How often should you update the names in the MODEL?
Reactivation Models
How often should you update the names in the MODEL?
Originally, we updated the lapsed pool quarterly. But in the last year, we have begun updating it every 60 days as we have increased our reactivation mail quantities year to year.
NOTE: The COOP Mart gets updated and refreshed every 2 weeks so the scoring of the names will vary; we recommend scoring immediately before you mail !

18. How often do you tweak the model.
Reactivation Models
How often do you tweak the model.
That really depends on how much you are using the model and how your results are looking mailing after mailing.
Our Aegis clients are typically reviewing their models annually and test into new models without fully abandoning their current model.
If your creative changes, you’ll want to build new models.

19. Do MODELS work for Package Themes?
Package or Theme based models?
Do MODELS work for Package Themes?
Yes, MODELS can be used for selecting the best names to mail for a package theme. An example would be Seasonal card packages vs. Deceased Enrollments vs. Mission themed packages.
We have experienced some great success in using a custom MODEL to drive the best lapsed names into a Theme mail plan.

20. Healing Package

21. Memorial Package

22. Sample test mailing all 10 Deciles from the MODEL
Reactivation Models
Sample test mailing all 10 Deciles from the MODEL
Christmas Cd Reactivation
Lapsed Model : Lapsed Model
Segment
Description
Mail Date
Qty
Donors
$ Resp
Total Donated
Total Cost
%Resp
Avg.Gift
Gross /
ROI
Mailed
Letter
101
SEG01
09/09/2016
2,214
168
171
$2,517.00
$1,403.68
7.72%
$14.72
$1.14
1.79
102
SEG02
2,286
128
$1,850.00
$1,449.32
5.60%
$14.45
$0.81
1.28
103
SEG03
2,334
115
$1,332.77
$1,479.76
4.93%
$11.59
$0.57
0.90
104
SEG04
2,483
117
$1,342.00
$1,574.22
4.71%
$11.47
$0.54
0.85
105
SEG05
2,611
$1,181.00
$1,655.37
4.40%
$10.27
$0.45
0.71
106
SEG06
2,678
139
$1,568.00
$1,697.85
5.19%
$11.28
$0.59
0.92
107
SEG07
2,748
111
$1,279.00
$1,742.23
4.04%
$11.52
$0.47
0.73
108
SEG08
2,625
$1,128.00
$1,664.25
3.96%
$10.85
$0.43
0.68
109
SEG09
2,827
$1,324.00
$1,792.32
4.07%
$11.51
0.74
110
SEG10
3,667
122
$1,332.00
$2,324.88
3.33%
$10.92
$0.36
0.57
 Totals
26,473
1,234
1,237
$14,853.77
$16,783.88
4.67%
$12.01
$0.37
0.88

23. A closer look at the response rates
Reactivation Models
A closer look at the response rates
Christmas Cd Reactivation
Lapsed Model : Lapsed Model
Segment
Description (Decile)
%Resp
Donors
101
SEG01
7.72%
102
SEG02
5.60%
103
SEG03
4.93%
104
SEG04
4.71%
105
SEG05
4.40%
106
SEG06
5.19%
107
SEG07
4.04%
108
SEG08
3.96%
109
SEG09
4.07%
110
SEG10
3.33%
 Totals
4.67%

24. A closer look at the response rates in a Chart
Reactivation Models
A closer look at the response rates in a Chart

25. A closer look at the response rates in a Chart
Reactivation Models
A closer look at the response rates in a Chart
By mailing the first 3 deciles 3x instead of mailing all 10 deciles once,
you will increase your percent of response and lower the cost of
Reactivation, thereby acting as good stewards.

26. Here is a look at an appeal with Recency added
Reactivation Models
Here is a look at an appeal with Recency added
Seg-01 is Decile-01 where we got a 3.44% response vs. Seg-02 where we got a 2.99%.

27. Here is another look at an appeal with Recency added
Reactivation Models
Here is another look at an appeal with Recency added
In this sample we have Seg-01 and seg-02 pulled out for both the month
lapsed and the 37-plus month lapsed.
The percentages in the right hand column tell the story. Recency plays a roll but
the model can find good names in the month buckets.

28. Final Sample is response in a model being tested:
Reactivation Models
Final Sample is response in a model being tested:

29. Do models work with Acquisition?
Reactivation Models
Do models work with Acquisition?
Yes, models can be used when selecting names from a coop list.
Again, just like selecting the best lapsed names based on your existing active donors, you can use the model to select the best coop names.

30. Reactivation and Acquisition Models
Known MODELS for Reactivation and Acquisition programs in the Religious environment to look into:
Wiland
Apogee
IBehavior
DonorBase
Target
Path2Response (new)

31. Thank You ! Thank You Steve Veto Roger Hiyama Jan Parrott
V.P. of Consulting Services
Aegis Premier Technologies
1490 W. 121st Ave., Suite 201
Westminster CO 80234
PH:
Roger Hiyama
SVP, Client Services
Wiland
1800 Diagonal Road, Suite 600
Alexandria VA 22314
PH:
Jan Parrott
Direct Mail Manager
Sisters of St. Francis
St Francis WI
PH:

32. Reactivation Models
Questions