1. WRF-based Hurricane Simulation in the Environmental Data Cube Support System
John Holdzkom, Steve Lowe
Thomas Nehrkorn, John Galantowicz
George Modica, John Henderson, Mark Leidner
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.
Mark Horn
AgileSRC for AER, Inc.
Usual introduction.

2. Outline EDCSS Overview Definition of Problem Details of Approach
WRF Modeling Capability
Hurricane Simulation
EDCSS Production and Samples
Summary / Questions 2

3. EDCSS Program Environmental Data Cube Support System
U.S. DoD initiative to ensure consistent and coupled environment representations (data, products, effects) available to DoD Modeling and Simulation exercises
A “consumer oriented” approach, building products to specifications of a wide variety of participants
Existing capabilities are the result of DoD investment
All technology is US DoD owned and delivered open-source for maximum reuse 3

4. EDCSS Concept Definition Environmental Data Cube Support System
Build an Integrated
Environment Representation …
2. Produce a full suite of support products …
3. Distribute during event execution
I.E.R.
National
Providers of …
Data, Models,
Effects,
Expertise
we can build a scenario based on the impacts the senior leaders and exercise using weather as a stimulant
User
Domain
Simulation
Domain
Control Domain 4 4 4

5. Consumers and Products
Gridded data (binary, CSV)
Pre-computed effects (hypercube)
Weather charts
Satellite imagery (IR/VIS/WV)
KML overlays
Forecast data and messages
Observations
Satellite imagery
Simulation
Domain
Control Domain
User
Domain

6. EDCSS Support – Pacific Command
PACOM-09 Support
PACOM Senior METOC officer specified desired scenario
Typhoon passage through exercise area
Followed by benign conditions
Produced full suite of EDCSS products
Over 9,000 total products
Satellite, Radar, METAR/TAF, Grib forecasts, CSV, “TV”-style graphics
Daily weather briefing to training audience by PACOM Senior METOC Officer
Environment played in Navy’s JSAF simulation 6

7. Event Support Site
METAR LLHA Z 27004KT 10SM FEW016 21/20 Q0997 RMK SLP053 LAT328N LON0350E
METAR LLJR Z 29007G19KT 10SM FEW016 17/17 Q0946 RMK SLP075 LAT319N LON0352E
METAR LTAF Z 08004KT 10SM SCT015 22/21 Q0999 RMK SLP021 LAT370N LON0353E
Event support site is auto-generated by EDC Production.
Provides html pages for browsing and/or downloading products.
Hosted on EDC Distributor, which also offers these same products via web services. 7

8. Integrated Environment Representation
Integrated Environment Representation is the base from which all products are generated
Source options:
Historical archives (eg, NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalysis)
Resolution too coarse
Useful for finding desired conditions
Operational forecasts and products (eg, “live”)
No control of scenario on exercise dates
Modeled historical scenarios
Based on reality
Provides a high-fidelity resource
Scenario aligned with exercise objectives

9. Environment Representation Production Sequence
Project
Conditions,
Place/Time,
Products
4. Custom Product
Generation
Data
Effects
Text
Imagery
5. Product
Distribution
& Integration
Integrated
Environment
Representation (DATA)
Conditions,
Place/Time,
Data
1. Search historical archives
2. Access / Build
Environment Representation
3. Value-Add to meet Customer Requirements ?
COSINE Infrastructure
Utilities
Algorithms
Run model to generate high-fidelity
representation O(5 km , 20 min)
Interpolation
Transformation
Terminology
Units
Fill Values
Derived Content
Vertical Extent
Regional
Archives
(Re-use)
Global
Low-Fidelity
Archives 9 9

10. WRF Modeling Capability
AER maintains a WRF modeling capability for multiple government and commercial projects
Model deployed on 40-node IBM cluster
Integrated with EDCSS
Model initialization based on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis
Single run for a specified time period, or
Repeated, overlapping runs to limit error growth
Data assimilation to utilize synthetic observations to help “steer” scenario towards customer requirement 10

11. EDC-WRF Interface WRF control information from EDCSS
Includes a limited amount of required information, e.g.
geographic area of interest
horizontal resolution
time period
Limited set of choices for WRF configuration
Large number of possible options reduced to a smaller menu of fixed WRF setups
Prevents choice of inconsistent/invalid options by “naïve” users
Simplifies interface design
Use the user-defined info from EDCSS to provide basic inputs to model; use our expertise to determine how best to use the EDCSS info
Interface is essentially: what do you want to run (where, for how long, resolution); we build the ‘how do you run’
We anticipate the user not having multiple years of experience in running mesoscale models; we will think for the users
Because of endless number of requested scenarios, only a limited number of preselected configurations are supported.
Because of the modular and flexible design, adding others is not difficult 11 11

12. Hurricane bogusing
Hurricane bogusing using readily available software components:
WRF V2.2:
observation preprocessor, 3dvar analysis, WPS preprocessor, WRF
24km horizontal resolution, 3dvar assimilation of bogus surface pressure observations derived from best track data
Typhoon Zeb (Oct 1998) 12

13. Typhoon Zeb Simulation
Red = best track
Green = modeled track 13

14. EDCSS Production Fog/Haze Cloud Layers BlowingSand Wind Gust . . . .
EDCSS Production Site
Satellite
Imagery
Data
Hypercube
WRF
resource
Value-adding
derivations
Effects
Product
Generation
Imagery
Graphics
(KML)
Messages
METAR/TAF
System
Impacts
Fog/Haze
Cloud Layers
BlowingSand
Wind Gust 14

15. EDCSS Products 15

16. EDCSS Product Portfolio
Satellite/Radar (Google Earth)
Satellite
Probability of Detection
Radar 16

17. EDCSS Product Portfolio (Cont)
CSV
FTUS80 KWBC
EQBA TAF 1509/ KT 9999 SKC QNH2963INS
BECMG 1513/ KT 9999 SKC QNH2963INS
BECMG 1601/ KT 9999 SKC QNH2972INS
BECMG 1613/ KT 9999 SKC QNH2961INS T35/1609Z T17/1521Z=
GRIB
TAF
METAR EQBA Z 05007G18KT 10SM CLR 17/12 Q0944 RMK SLP112
METAR EQBF Z 09014KT 10SM CLR 00/M05 Q0799 RMK SLP189
METAR EQBI Z 11004KT 10SM CLR 09/05 Q0736 RMK SLP113
METAR 17

18. EDCSS Product Portfolio (Cont)
Soil moisture content
Systems impact (stop light chart)
Ocean wave dir/height
“TV” weather graphics 18

19. Summary
EDCSS goal is to provide consistent environmental data, products, and effects for all participants in modeling and simulation exercises
All products derived from an Integrated Environment Representation
Guarantees consistency between all products
Modeling historical scenarios provides needed fidelity and control
Products built to consumer requirements 19

20. Thanks !
This work was performed as part of the EDCSS program, sponsored by Air Force Weather and the DoD Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office (MSCO).
Atmospheric & Environmental Research, Inc.
1510 Breezeport Way, Suite 600
Suffolk, VA 23435
for more info. 20