1. How to do R&D impact analysis and write the case studies
Liangzhi You, Catherine Ragasa

2. Outline Data requirements Possible sources of data
Outline of the case study write-up

3. Problem statement What are you aiming to evaluate?
To evaluate a technology
To evaluate the impact of R&D investment
To evaluate the impact of NARI
To evaluate the impact of a project
Scope
Impact of a single variety (compared to best available variety)
Impact of modern varieties (compared with best local variety)
Impact of research program (compared with best variety prior to program)
Timeframe (if analyzing system or research program; ex-ante and ex-post)
Scale
National, regional
Selected parts of the country (a small project or small competitive grants)
Spillover (part of the intended benefits and costs of the investments or incidental?)

4. Data Needs ADEQUATE UNDERSTANDING OF THE FOCUS COMMODITY
Production of the focus commodity (time series or growth rate)
Consumption of the focus commodity (time series or growth rate)
Market Price
Type of market for the commodity
Small open economy (price is dictated by world prices)
Closed economy (no trade)
Horizontal multimarket
Policies affecting the commodity
Tax/subsidy specific to the commodity
Fertilizer subsidy (50% of fertilizer price, and fertilizer price is 10% of cost, and 8% of value of output, therefore 4%)

5. Data needs (2) UNDERSTANDING OF FOCUS TECHNOLOGY
Single variety, series of varieties, technology package, agronomic practices
Counterfactual technology
For single variety, counterfactual the best older variety
For all modern varieties, counterfactual is the best traditional variety
For WAAPP-funded varieties, counterfactual is the best modern variety before WAAPP
Change in yield (new versus counter)
Other changes
Reduced production cost (Bt maize led to reduced pesticide cost)
Change in output price
Price premium (biofortified crops)

6. Data needs (3)
ADEQUATE UNDERSTANDING OF THE R&D PROCESS/BREEDING PROGRAM
R&D time lag (years to develop a technology)
R&D cost
Go back to what technology or series of technologies are being evaluated
What was the cost of developing those?
For example, WAAPP-released cassava varieties, total cost of WAAAP program in the country

7. Case Study of the Impact of Maize Research in WCA
Problem statement, scope, scale, and timeframe
Economic and poverty reduction impacts of maize research in West and Central Africa over the period 1971–2005
Ex post analysis

8. Data on Commodity Production data
Simplistic assumptions on consumption (no effect on consumption)

9. Data on Technology
Technology: focus on varieties (379 modern varieties released)
Yield: data from regional and on-farm variety evaluation trials to estimate the genetic yield gains attributable to maize research

10. Adoption (expert opinion)

11. Data on R&D investments

12. Other assumptions
Supply elasticity: (based on Mono province, Benin (Honfoga 1993))
No assumptions on demand elasticity, consumption
Policy (subsidies) is reflected in the growth rate in production and area of maize (no need to put as a separate parameter)
Price: world price of maize
Research lag (10 years for international research; 5 years for NARS)
Cost: (international); (NARS)
Benefits: Varieties released:
Focus on varieties (specify that improved agronomic practices may also be a product of the R&D investment made during that time period)

13. Enter the parameters in DREAM

14. Source of Germplasm (Attribution of Benefits)

15. Attribution of benefits

16. Poverty impacts

18. Sensitivity analysis Parameter changed Change
Effect of Net Benefit (B-C)
Effect on ROR
Yield gain
Reduced by half
-48%
-23%
Supply elasticity
From 0.45 to 1
-54%
-26%
Extension cost
Twice the research costs
-69%
Flow of benefits
To from
+31%

19. Generic outline of a case study
Introduction
Data Source
Method
Benefits
Costs
Rates of return
Sensitivity analysis
Conclusion and Implications

20. Introduction Motivation of the study
Why we are doing the study?
What development goal does it address?
Who will use this?
Background about the commodity and about the technologies
Commodity
Technology

21. Data Source All sources of information and data used
Survey (sampling method, sample size, etc.)
Rapid appraisal
Expert opinion
Secondary data
Focus group interviews
Or combinations
Specify assumptions made

22. Method Economic surplus approach (describe a bit)
Model (describe a bit)
Software: DREAM

23. Benefits Changes in producer’s income
Adoption (area planted or applied with the technology)
Yield advantage of new technology compared to counterfactual
Other advantages of new technology compared to counterfactual
Changes in price
Changes in prices paid by consumer
Attribution of benefits
Who invested and contributed?
Source of germplasm?

24. Rates of Return Costs Rates of Return (from DREAM) Poverty impacts
Stream of costs or investments
Rates of Return (from DREAM)
Comparing the flow of benefits with costs (considering time lag in research)
Internal rates of return
Poverty impacts

25. Sensitivity Analysis Very important
The idea is to change the assumptions or parameters used, depending on how reliable the available data are:
Assumption on adoption
Assumption on yield advantage
Assumption on elasticities
Assumption on price changes
Limitation of the study
Other benefits and costs that cannot be quantified (increase in scientist’s capacity, environmental impacts)

26. Conclusions and Implications
Why this study was conducted?
Brief summary of key findings
Implications
Practical recommendations (what do you think needs to be emphasized or changed?)