1. B.V. Jackson H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington, M. Tokumaru
Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences,
University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, USA
H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington,
Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, USA
M. Tokumaru
Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University, Nagoya , Japan
A. Gonzalez-Espararza, J. Mejia-Ambriz, O. Chang
George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, and NASA-Goddard Spaceflight Center, USA
D. Odstrcil
George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, and NASA-Goddard Spaceflight Center, USA
S. Hong, J. Kim
Korean Space Weather Center, National Radio Research Agency, 198-6, Jeju, South Korea
Where necessary I will add comments
B. Lee, J. Yi, J. Yun
SELab, 8, Nonhyeon-ro 150-gil, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, South Korea
M.M Bisi
RAL Space, Science & Technology Facilities Council, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Oxford, Didcot, Oxfordshire, OX11 0QX, England (UK)
Masayoshi

2. Introduction: IPS Space Weather Predictions IPS Tomographic Analyses:
Used primarily with ISEE IPS observations, Other data sets can fill in, or be primary, depending on amount and quality.
WIPSS (World InterPlanetary Scintillation Systems)
Analysis:
Combined analysis from multiple IPS data sets, 3D-MHD
forward modeling.
Magnetic field component forward-modeling – Br, Bt:
Part of the model package developed at UCSD.
Interesting Developments: GSM Bx, By, Bz
My talk will proceed this way

3. Today’s Forecast Analysis
Where necessary I will add comments
Masayoshi

4. Today’s Forecast Analysis
Where necessary I will add comments
Masayoshi

5. IPS Heliospheric Analyses ISEE (STELab)
DATA
IPS Heliospheric Analyses ISEE (STELab)
Density inhomogenieties in the solar wind on the order of 150 km size from point radio sources produce an intensity pattern variation on the ground that travels away from the Sun with the solar wind speed. This pattern, measured and correlated between different radio sites in Japan allows a determination of the solar wind speed by translating this value to the line of sight perpendicular. The fuzz observed correlates from one radio site to another.
IPS line-of-sight response
ISEE IPS array systems

6. UCSD IPS Predictions

7. IPS line-of-sight response Sample outward motion over time
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21,
Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction.
ISEE IPS
This shows how the UCSD IPS time-dependent Computer Assisted Tomography (C.A.T.) analysis works. The 327 MHz IPS line of sight weighting provides a weight for each source observation on a spherical source surface below each line. As material moves outward from the Sun, it follows a very specific modeled path and expansion that is weighted differently at different times. The full mathematical treatment can be found in Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21,
Sample outward motion over time

8. Space Weather Predictions using IPS
Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction.

9. IPS line-of-sight response
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21,
Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction.
ISEE IPS
This shows the line of sight traces on a Carrington map at the source surface (lower right). The line of sight weighting provides a weight for each source observation on the source surface. The full mathematical treatment can be found in Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21,
14 July 2000
13 July 2000

10. UCSD Kinematic IPS Model
IPS Prediction (KSWC)
UCSD Kinematic IPS Model

11. IPS Prediction (KSWC) IPS-Driven ENLIL
IPS-Driven ENLIL

12. More Details
Magnetic Field

13. CSSS model Source surface Br field component sample
(Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19.)
CSSS model
Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353.
Source surface Br field component sample
Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field using photospheric measurements and a horizontal current model.
2. Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region.
3. Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines.

14. Current UCSD IPS Br, Bt predictions

15. But what is really wanted is Bz

16. I have often wondered where the Bz in-situ field comes from
I have often wondered where the Bz in-situ field comes from. The Parker spiral analysis does not indicate how a normal field (north-south) can occur, and yet the field exists and is ever-present in the heliosphere.

17. Extrapolated Bn closed field component for CR 2056
(Jackson, B.V., et al., 2015, ApJL, 803:L , doi: / /803/1/L1.)
CSSS model
Closed field
Extrapolated Bn closed field component for CR 2056
Extrapolated Bt field component for CR 2056
Extrapolated Br field component for CR 2056
About 1/50th of the static flux r-1.34 fall-off

18. WIPSS Organization Name
2) All participants agreed to share their data and host
websites to present their data in real time as soon as it becomes available.
3) At this time a new member joined the group of
organizations that provide access to their IPS
data set in real time from the world’s largest
(70,000 m2) radio array currently operating;
the 110 Mhz system at Pushchino, Russia.
Organization Name
WIPSS
(Worldwide InterPlanetary Scintillation Stations)

19. (as of the Recent Morelia Remote Sensing Workshop, 20-24 October 2015)
Standard Data Format
(as of the Recent Morelia Remote Sensing Workshop, October 2015)

20. As: ftp://ftp.stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp/pub/vlist/STEL2015.dat
Standard IPS Format
Ascii – Fixed Format
As: ftp://ftp.stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp/pub/vlist/STEL2015.dat
Date MidObsUT Dur. Site Freq BW Source Size RA-J2000 Dec-J2000 Limb Dist.
:57: STEL C E
Lat. PA Elong Vel. V-err g-value g-err Method Vel. V-err g-value g-err Method
St. CC St. PS
Date MidObsUT Dur. Site Freq BW Source Size RA-J2000 Dec-J2000 Limb Dist. Lat. PA Elong Vel. V-err g-value g-err Method Vel. V-err g-value g-err Method
:57: STEL C E St. CC St. PS
New item
Used by UCSD tomo.
G-value, error

21. View from MEXART, Mexico Ecliptic Plane Projection
“Image” of the Sky
View from ISEE, Japan
View from MEXART, Mexico
Ecliptic Plane Projection

22. (Carrington Rotation 2156.7) MEXART Ecliptic Cut 11/03/2014 03 UT
MEXART Analysis (72 L.O.S.)
(Carrington Rotation )
MEXART Time Series 11/02 – 11/
MEXART Ecliptic Cut 11/03/ UT
correlation 0.434
A Hammer-Aitoff display showing the STELab source locations. The source value is indicated relative to the model background value.

23. Combined ISEE (~1200 L. O. S. ), and MEXART (72 L. O. S
Combined ISEE (~1200 L.O.S.), and MEXART (72 L.O.S.) Analysis (Carrington Rotation )
Combined Time Series 11/02 – 11/
MEXART Ecliptic Cut 11/03/ UT
MEXART Ecliptic Cut 11/03/ UT
ISEE-MEXART Ecliptic Cut 11/03/ UT
correlation 0.965
A Hammer-Aitoff display showing the STELab source locations. The source value is indicated relative to the model background value.

24. Summary: IPS Space Weather Predictions WIPSS:
Incorporation of other systems into the tomographic analysis is now available, and helps other IPS sites standardize and edit their own data sets. The term has caught on and, and hopefully will provide a uniform front for IPS space weather work.
Interesting Developments:
The IPS analysis is a really-great test-bed for many different types of space weather forecasting that include:
1) 3D-MHD predictions.
2) Bz analysis.
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