1. Autonomous/Connected Vehicle – Joint Lee/Collier MPO October 20, 2017

2. Levels of Autonomous Vehicles

3. Automated Vehicle – Umbrella which includes both autonomous and connected vehicle technologies
Autonomous Vehicle – Use radar, cameras and computing abilities to perceive surroundings; activate steering, braking and acceleration without operator impact
Connected Vehicle – Employ vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to infrastructure communication to provide real time warning to human driver to avoid crashes, congestion, weather etc.
Working with local jurisdictions/public on project applications – identifying roadway and transit needs
- Developing Measures of Effectiveness
- Initial model alternatives
Finalizing and implementing Public Involvement Plan
Website update, content, other communications

7. Potential Benefits
Safety: 90% of crashes are caused by driver
error at an annual cost of $300 billion
Fuel Efficiency: Driverless cars will travel most fuel efficient way – projected to save from 25% -40% in fuel; lower level features lead to 10% savings
Congestion: Better utilization of existing infrastructure particularly freeways
Accessibility: Enhance mobility for people that can’t drive
Savings: Travel cheaper and more convenient
Data: Vehicles providing a large amount of travel data
Freight: Platooned vehicles
Reduced Road Rage/Consistent Speeds: Follow existing laws and regulations
Working with local jurisdictions/public on project applications – identifying roadway and transit needs
- Developing Measures of Effectiveness
- Initial model alternatives
Finalizing and implementing Public Involvement Plan
Website update, content, other communications

9. Issues for Deployment
Legal, liability, licensing, security and insurance questions
Cyber Attacks
Cost of Vehicles
Public fears and acceptance
Weather influence on sensors
Interaction with Bicyclists, Pedestrians, animals and non-autonomous vehicles
Cost of implementing infrastructure needed and
reduced transportation funding

10. Issues for Deployment (Cont.)
Detection issues and unpredictability
Different regulations in different areas
Crash data reporting
Increased issues from mixed fleet (potentially increased distraction)
Potential travel behavior (sprawl, VMT increase etc.)
Hype and rush to market

11. Survey Results (early 2017)
59% want autonomous features but 75% are afraid to ride in fully autonomous vehicles
44% would buy active safety features if less than $5,000

12. Projecting Automated Vehicle Use
IHS Automotive predicts that there will be 54 million self driving vehicles by 2035 and every car will be autonomous by 2050
Within three years will have several models with mass market by 2025

13. Insurance Industry Perspective
Reduce crashes by 80% by 2040
Level of automation may become a core dimension of driving risk
Premiums consumers pay could drop by as much as 60% in15 years with self driving
Liability shift to manufacturer
Repair cost expected to increase due to technology
Savings projected for autonomous vehicles per year:
Crashes – $488 billion
Production – $507 billion
Fuel from congestion – $11 billion
Productivity from congestion - $138 billion
Fuel cost savings - $158 billion

14. Financial Industry Perspective
Car Companies – 80 million sold each year at average $19,000 per vehicle is 1.5 trillion
Silicon Valley – 10 trillion miles traveled at $1.00 per mile equates to 100 $100 billion markets
Toyota - $250 billion in revenues took 70 years/Uber only at .4% now, at low increase to 1.7% would be $255 billion in 7 years
Utilization of vehicles – parked 96% of the time
Value of time – 10 trillion miles traveled at 25mph is 600 billion hours, global estimate is $1.80 per hour
Real Estate – One billion cars with 4 parking spaces per car that equates to 43,000 square miles of potential repurposed land

15. USDOT Guidance Plan for a mixed fleet for many years
Grants for autonomous vehicle projects need to be backed up with operations and maintenance funding for long term use of technology
Work on infrastructure improvements that separate autonomous/non-autonomous
Plan for turning a large amount of probe data from vehicles into useful data

16. Address in MPO LRTP Update
FHWA is recommending scenarios to measure impact (including economic and demographic changes) and to support informed investment
Update Goals and Objectives to include
Revise Intelligent Transportation System Plans
Change prioritization process to address benefits of CV technology
Include infrastructure and technological improvements in LRTP’s to accommodate driverless vehicles
Provide more education and awareness during public involvement activities

17. Current Planning Activities
Transportation Model will now be able to show travel impact based on projected percentage of autonomous vehicles
FDOT – Current study determining absorption rate for use in model
Also looking at impact of projections on funding

18. Electric Vehicle Trends

19. Recent Announcements
Volvo – By 2019 model year new car models will have an electric motor (fully electric, plug in hybrid or mild hybrid)
France and Britain – Ban the sale of diesel/gas cars and vans by 2040
India – Sell only electric cars by 2030
Bloomberg – Predicts by % of light duty vehicles sold will be electric (last years predictions was 34%)
Ford – fewer models but more electric – 13 new in next 5 years
GM – 20 new electric vehicles by 2023 & hydrogen fuel cells by 2020

20. Battery Trends
Since 2010 – Lithium-ion batteries have fallen 73% per kWh
By 2030 – Battery prices are projected fall another 70% through manufacturing improvements and doubling in battery power density
Charge distance – mile range
Fast Charge – 50% charge in 20 minutes

21. Transportation Funding
Electric vehicle Incentives are going away in some states, some are now charging registration fees (Washington, Georgia, Virginia) to make up revenue reductions

22. Questions or Comments
Working with local jurisdictions/public on project applications – identifying roadway and transit needs
- Developing Measures of Effectiveness
- Initial model alternatives
Finalizing and implementing Public Involvement Plan
Website update, content, other communications