1. The Agility Imperative: Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors
presented to
Defense S&T Symposium
Preparing the military for the Unpredictable
April 2010
Dr. David S. Alberts
Director, Research OASD/NII

2. Questions to be Addressed
What are the root causes for the lack of predictability?
What are the implications for Command and Control?
Is there a future for Command and Control?
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

3. Roots of Unpredictability
The root causes of a lack of Predictability
A lack of understanding
Irreducible uncertainty
A lack of information
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

4. Roots of Unpredictability
A lack of Predictability can be a result of:
A lack of understanding
Irreducible uncertainty (stochastic properties)
A lack of information
Complexity
Limits understanding
Increases uncertainty
Increases the need for information
Increased Complexity Increased Unpredictability
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

5. Sources of Mission Complexity
21st Century Missions are Complex Endeavors
Complexity of the Task and Environment +
Complexity of ‘Self’ =
Complex Endeavor
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

6. Task and Environment
Humanitarian Assistance
Counter Terrorism
Peace Keeping
The success of 21st Century Missions requires a multi-dimensional effects space
- political, social, economic, military
The complexity of the mission is a result of the interactions between and among the effects, particularly across dimensions, and the uncertainties associated with a cascading effects chain.
Stability Operations
Disaster Relief
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

7. Complexity of Self
Self = A large number of heterogeneous, independent entities that differ significantly with respect to:
Culture, values and norms;
Laws, policies, rules, and regulations;
Practices and processes;
Levels of trust;
Language;
Information and communications capabilities;
Approach to organization and management.
The complexity of ‘Self’ comes from the nature of the interactions between and among the participating entities and the dynamics of the situation that affect entity willingness, constraints, perceptions, and capabilities.
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

8. Questions to be Addressed
What are the root causes for the lack of predictability ?
What are the implications for Command and Control?
Is there a future for Command and Control?
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

9. Implications for Command and Control
increases
Complex
Endeavors
Unpredictability
challenges basic assumptions re:
Command
challenges basic assumptions re:
Control C2
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

10. Challenges to Basic C2 Assumptions
Unpredictability
The unexpected will occur with greater frequency
The effective lives of plans will be shorter – they may expire within the planning cycle.
Critical information and expertise necessary to understand the situation will not be available
Traditional approaches to decision making under uncertainty will be less applicable
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

11. Challenges to Basic C2 Assumptions
Unpredictability
The unexpected will occur with greater frequency
The effective lives of plans will be shorter – they may expire within the planning cycle.
Critical information and expertise necessary to understand the situation will not be available
Traditional approaches to decision making under uncertainty will be less applicable
The most appropriate response to Complexity
and the associated increases in uncertainty and risk is
Agility
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

12. Implications for Command and Control
increases
Complex
Endeavors
Unpredictability
challenges basic
assumptions re: Command
challenges basic
assumptions re: Control
Agile C2
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

13. Challenges to Basic C2 Assumptions
Complex Endeavors
There will not be a unified chain of command.
Entities will each have their own intent.
The situation will be, in part, unfamiliar to all entities.
There will be multiple planning processes.
Critical information and expertise necessary to understand the situation will be non-organic.
Actions, to be effective, will require developing synergies between and among entity actions.
There is a difference between Entity Command and Control
and Collective Command and Control
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

14. Implications for Command and Control
increases
Complex
Endeavors
Unpredictability
challenges basic
assumptions re: Command
challenges basic
assumptions re: Control
Agile
New Approaches
to C2
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

15. Agility and the C2 Approach Space?
What is Agility?
Agility and the C2 Approach Space?
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

16. Essence of Agility: Why do we need Agility
Success must be achieved / maintained in light of
Success = effectiveness, efficiency, survivability
Dynamic environment
Complexity and chaotic environment
Unknown futures
Unpredictable states
Rapidly changing situations
New, diverse circumstances
Unexpected events
Unfamiliar situations
Changing tasks, purposes
Loss, Damage, Threats
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

17. Essences of Agility: What Needs to be Agile
The concept of agility can be applied to
People
C2 Approaches
Organizations
Processes
Systems
Architectures
Policy
Doctrine
Tactics
Acquisition
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

18. Agility Agility is the ability to successfully cope
with changes in the environment (system)
e.g.
- degradation / loss of capability
- change in objectives
- change in coalition (self)
- …….
maintain acceptable level of
- performance,
- effectiveness,
- efficiency
NCW is much more than a way to do a given traditional military mission more effectively – it is, more importantly, a way to greatly increase the agility of an organization to respond to a variety of situations.
The ability to be agile is essential to meeting the security challenges of the 21st Century. Agility is, of course, less important if one can predict the threat and prepare for it – the approach we took for much of the 20th Century. However, we always seem to think we can predict more accurately than we actually can.
We in DoD. Like other countries, do threat / capability forecasts. This year we are looking out to 2021 – 17 years to 1987 – when
-- we were preparing for armored warfare in the Fulda Gap
-- the Mujahedin were regarded as freedom fighters
-- Saddam Hussein was considered a buffer against the Islamic Revolution in Iran
-- and no one had heard of the Internet
requires
Timely recognition
Appropriate response
Timely response
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

19. Essence of Agility: Mechanisms
Being agile includes the employment of one or more of
the following inter-related mechanisms
Adaptability
Flexibility
Responsiveness
Survivability
Resilience
Robustness
Requisite variety
Innovativeness
Learning
Fault Tolerance
Re-configurability
Re-engineering
Reflexive
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

20. Essence of Agility: Measuring Agility
Agility is not completely observable
Agility (or a lack of ) can be observed only after the fact (manifest)
Agility is potential until it is manifest
Thus, a measure of Agility must be able to measure both potential and manifest Agility
Indicants of Agility are also of interest.
Indicants measure the properties of an entity that are related to more or less agility.
Indicants may be easier to observe / measure
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

21. Essence of Agility: Requisite Agility
Agility is not an unlimited good
Improving Agility involves costs
The amount of Agility is a function of the situation
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

22. Agility and the C2 Approach Space?
What is Agility?
Agility and the C2 Approach Space?
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

23. Rethinking C2 The Mission Space and the C2 Approach Space
Virtually all endeavors will be complex
Situations will be dynamic
The more complex and dynamic the situation, the greater demands on C2
New, Agile Approaches to Command and Control
There are many ways to accomplish the functions associated with Command and Control
No one approach fits all missions or situations
The most appropriate approach will be a function of the endeavor
Entities will need to be able to utilize more than one C2 approach
The Collective needs to be able to adopt an appropriate C2 approach
The approach to C2 needs to change with changing circumstances
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

24. C2 Approach Space Distribution of Information Among Participants
Patterns of Interaction
Among Entities
Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

25. C2 Approach Space Traditional Military Organizations
Distribution of Information Among Participants
Patterns of Interaction
Among Entities
Traditional
Military
Organizations
Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

26. C2 Approach Space Edge Organizations Traditional Military
Distribution of Information Among Participants
Edge Organizations
Patterns of Interaction
Among Entities
Traditional
Military
Organizations
Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

27. ? B A A False Choice It’s not about how to get from A to B, but…
Distribution of Information Among Participants B
Edge Organizations ?
Patterns of Interaction
Among Entities
It’s not about how to get from
A to B, but… A
Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

28. C2 Agility Agile C2 Involves the ability to move around the
Distribution of Information Among Participants
Agile C2 Involves
the ability to move
around the
C2 Approach Space
appropriately
Patterns of Interaction
Among Entities
Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

29. What is your requisite level of Maturity?
The Real Choices
Endeavor Space
Approach to
Focus and Convergence
What is your requisite level of Maturity?
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

30. C2 Agility
C2 Agility is the ability to maintain effective C2 as a function of changing circumstances and stresses
Agility is an umbrella concept that includes:
Responsiveness
Robustness
Resilience
Being able to recognize and transition to the appropriate approach to C2 is an essential capability, but only one of the ways that we can make C2 more agile
NEC C2 is inherently more Agile than traditional approaches
– Flexibility
– Innovativeness
– Adaptability
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010

31. It’s all about Networks
Complex Endeavors are now the business of DoD
Complex Effects Space
More than just military effects
Interactions in effects space significant
Lack of understanding of cross-domain cause-effects
Inability to predict
Operating in a Network-Centric Environment
Many v. Few
Unfamiliar v. Familiar
Complex “Self”
“Self” is composed of a large number of heterogeneous entities
Different objectives, values, constraints
No single entity in charge
Entities have significantly different perceptions
Effects
Network
Networked
Self
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010