2. Supporting NEPA -- Sustainability Risk
7 Apr 04
Supporting NEPA
Sustainable Range Planning Tool
Paul Loechl
Chris Conrad
7 April 2004
USACE ERDC CERL: Developing a range sustainability risk assessment tool.
To be used by installation staff to analyze the long-term sustainability risk of a particular range on a specific piece of terrain.
As we began to develop the tool; it became obvious that what we were doing and what one did in a NEPA analysis had many areas of overlap.
This briefing provides an overview of the risk tool and how it could assist in environmental analyses and the training range decision process.
Of potential interest to NEPA practitioners as well as training, range, and environmental professionals.
US Army Corps
of Engineers

3. Supporting The NEPA Process: Outline
Supporting NEPA -- Sustainability Risk
7 Apr 04
Supporting The NEPA Process: Outline
Sustainable Range Planning
Range Sustainability Risk
Range Risk Design Tool
NEPA Connection
Future Potential
An outline of the briefing.
First, we are using the Facilities (FCC), Activities, and Tasks list, for each of the 108 FCCs currently supported, developed by AEC for getting the range community involved well in the Army’s EMS building process (this was one of the graphics on our poster in New Orleans.
Second, our tool supports the development of aspects and impacts for these activities as the project level, and at the planning, O&M, and closure stages.

4. Sustainable Range Planning: Background
Supporting NEPA -- Sustainability Risk
7 Apr 04
Sustainable Range Planning: Background
Mission Focus: Training soldiers
“Encroachment”
Sustainability
Range Manager’s Priorities
R&D: Risk Tool: Purpose
The Army has a major range modernization and construction program – ongoing for last 3 or 4 years. Will continue.
Sustainable Range Program: focus is training.
Trainers have a valid concern about sustainability (ability to use the range).
Increasing capabilities of weapons, increasing doctrinal area required to train a given size unit. But decreasing freedom to use current training areas. Development: the famous Ft Benning map.
Encroachment: a current term: backwards (Encroachment to the trainer is when his mission is constrained by law or by someone complaining that he is encroaching on their interests. (E.g., noise, contaminated water, polluted air).
Sustainability: our definition is congruent with AEPI, FORSCOM, Bruntland Commission: focus is on long term degradation of resources. Concern is not simply current law.
Research concept initiated by a set of Range Manager’s priorities expressed in graphical format for the ARSIG. The matrix indicated the most pressing environmental issues confronting trainers and range officers.
The Army has applied some R&D resources to develop a range risk assessment tool: part of a larger set of R&D requirements to improve range sustainability.

5. Range Sustainability Risk
Training activity impact
Resource degradation
Training value degradation
Maintenance costs
Legal/regulatory constraints
Range Closure
Range Cleanup

6. Supporting NEPA -- Sustainability Risk
7 Apr 04
Range Risk Tool Design
Purpose
Assessment of sustainability risk
Proposed range, specific location
Used by installation staff
Supports decision-making
Method
Artificial Intelligence
Knowledge-based
Interactive
Mission focus
Responding to a science and technology objective.
This tool is one of a series of research objectives intended to improve range sustainability.
We anticipate that our tool will be used by range managers as well as environmental staff, and DPW folks, including the master planner. It can be used for specific projects that have made it onto the Army Master Range Plan (AMRP) and for planning purposes as master planners, range staff, and others look to modernize and/or transform their range complexes to accommodate new kinds of ranges (battle area course (BAX), convoy courses, Home Stations, changing mission due to BRAC, the Army Compatible Use Buffer (ACUB) process for acquiring development rights to land around the installation boundary or outright purchase, or Army 2020.

7. Sustainability Risk Paradigm
Environmental
Resources
Effects
Mitigation
Externalities
Management

8. Risk Equilibrium Analog
Physical
Impact
(Stressor)
Mitigation
Resource
Vulnerability
(Receptor)
Risk
M = Installation environmental management capacity
E = Externalities (community and other stakeholders)

9. Risk Parameters Stressor (Range activity)
Receptor (Environmental resources)
Mitigation
Management
Externalities
Resource significance

10. Supporting NEPA -- Sustainability Risk
7 Apr 04
Range Risk Tool
Matching stressor and receptor
Quantitative
Input mix:
Data Bases
Local Expertise
Reports
Matches stressor (aspect) with receptor (impact)
Purpose is to express sustainability risk: method is quantitative.
An expert system (AI) gathers data and expertise from a variety of sources; usually not connected in any other way.
Provides a set of reports to the user. Does it tell him anything he didn’t already know: maybe not, but it organizes the knowledge and provides him with a method (e.g. a report) with some credibility to help him interact in the range planning process.

11. EXTERNAL DATA AND MODELS EXTERNAL DATA AND MODELS
Ammo
Toxics
Environmental
Parameters
Capacity
Models
RISK TOOL
RISK TOOL
Standard
Range
Design
Ammo
&
Activity
Environmental
Conditions
Mitigation
Potential
Closure
Externalities
&
Management
ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS
Q & A
Range
Requirement
Adjust
Design
Potential
Location
Sustainability
Risk
Factors
Iterate
INSTALLATION
INSTALLATION

12. Supporting NEPA -- Sustainability Risk
7 Apr 04
Inference Engine
Each range type provides a different set of standardized aspects (stressors).
Each range location provides a unique set of environmental resource vulnerabilities.
Mitigation will vary according to physical capability and capacity, resource priority, training tradeoffs, etc.
Each installation has its own set of community hot issues, resource and training priorities.
Bottom row: risk expression for particular resources.
Right column: expression of risk according to activity set.
Mathematics is relatively simplified at this point (probability theory and simple statistics).

13. A New Range: the Process
Supporting NEPA -- Sustainability Risk
7 Apr 04
A New Range: the Process
Range Requirement
Range MILCON Process
Range design
NEPA Analysis
Construction
Monitoring - mitigation
A long (6-yr) process from requirement to construction.
NEPA analysis, often mechanical and too-late

14. Supporting NEPA -- Sustainability Risk
7 Apr 04
Intent of NEPA
Decision-support
Interdisciplinary
Analytical
Place-based
Environment focused
Mission-oriented
Risk Tool
1. Early in the research we noticed a tight congruence between what we were doing and the NEPA intent.

15. NEPA Decision Process MDMP Analog
Staff estimate
Alternatives
Recommendations
Support the decision
Avoid “going black” with environmental resources
Early in the process

16. Value of the Tool to NEPA
Supporting NEPA -- Sustainability Risk
7 Apr 04
Value of the Tool to NEPA
Identify issues
Scoping
Planning tool
Alternative identification
Analysis
Initiates data collection
Assists with [data → information] process
NEPA intent w/o “NEPA” process
Some mechanistic advantages: procedural.
NEPA intent as a decision support tool rarely functional unless there are significant, controversial issues.
Purpose of this tool is to give a quick review of potential environmental vulnerabilities that might constrain the use of the range for its intended purpose.

17. Range Risk Analysis Benefits Future Potential Fast, low-cost analysis
Introduces environmental considerations early
Interactive: aids analysis and decision-making
Future Potential
GIS integration
Expert Systems
Fuzzy Logic

18. Supporting NEPA -- Sustainability Risk Sustainable Range Planning Tool
7 Apr 04
Sustainable Range Planning Tool
Paul Loechl
Chris Conrad
7 April 2004