1. Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Update on CPC Activities
Douglas Le Comte
NASA JPL Project Kickoff Meeting
Lincoln, NE
April 24-25, 2007

2. Advancing the Science of Monitoring and Forecasting
The U.S. Drought Monitor
Major component of NIDIS and the Portal
The Seasonal Drought Outlook
Working toward more objective tools
A major component of NIDIS and an early warning system

3. Availability of Drought Products at CPC
and NOAA
Select “Drought Assessment”
From the home page
NOAA Drought
Information Center /
Sel

4. NCEP NIDIS INITIATIVES
Funded by the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) through the Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA). 
Through the CPPA support, the NCEP NIDIS thrusts have established strong partnerships between NWS OHD, EMC, CPC, the NASA Hydrological Sciences Branch at Goddard, as well as several key universities (e.g. University of Washington, Princeton University) and the Land Team of NESDIS/ORA. 
Some of these partnerships will transition and test seasonal scale drought monitoring and prediction products in the NCEP-CPO Climate Test Bed.

5. NCEP NIDIS INITIATIVES
Multi-Model Ensemble NLDAS:
(i) EMC will implement four NLDAS systems at NCEP based on different models (Vic, Sac, Noah and Mosaic) and run in near-real time.
(ii) CPC will evaluate the NLDAS’s, consolidate them into a multi-model ensemble, and distribute products to users.
(iii) The multi-model ensemble will reduce uncertainties in the products.

6. New Monitoring Tool: Regional Reanalysis Moisture Output

7. The U.S. Drought Outlook
Designed for a general
audience and not for specific
hydro or ag decision-making
A schematic designed to provide a broad indication of drought trends for the following 3 ½ months
Four categories: improve, some improvement (e.g., better soil moisture but continuing water supply shortages), persist/worsen, development/onset
Issued same time as the CPC long lead outlooks on 3rd Thursday of the month, but with updates if needed (may change to twice/month schedule)
Incorporates forecasts from all time periods (days, weeks, months)… it is a zero lead forecast.
Starts with the most recent U.S. Drought monitor D1 areas
Hopefully, you know a lot more than I do about the NAEF and how it will improve forecasts, since I’m pretty clueless here.

9. Principal Drought Outlook Inputs
2-Wk Soil Moisture
CPC Long-Lead
Precip. Outlook
Constructed Analogue Soil Model
Palmer 4-mo
Probabilities
Medium-Range Fcst

10. Selected Forecast Tools
Soil Moisture Fcst
UKMET Seasonal
CPC ECCA

11. Toward NIDIS and Improved Forecasts
A 2-path approach: 1) Improved schematic forecasts and 2) quantified probability forecasts of drought indices
Improved statistical and dynamic seasonal forecasts of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture
Research leading to improved understanding of the underlying causes of drought (e.g., air-sea and ground-air interactions)

12. NCEP NIDIS INITIATIVES
Long Term Plans :
Support Seasonal Drought Outlook by providing objective ensemble (drought) forecasts.
Employ both dynamical and statistical forecast tools in the ensemble.
Forecast Variable: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months.

13. Sample Objective Drought Forecast
This product from Princeton
features probability soil
moisture forecasts from both
statistical and numerical models.

14. Near-term Changes in DO
Phase 1: Change text on forecast map to clarify purpose and valid period (done in latest forecast)
Phase 2: Eliminate ad hoc updates and publish an additional DO on the 1st Thursday of each month
Phase 3: Change categories on the map, eliminating the “some improvement” category and adding an “intensification” category. Produce a complementary map with probabilities

15. Prototype Revised DO Map

16. Prototype Drought Probability Change Map