1. The UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP
Jim Kinter
George Mason University
Fred Carr, University of Oklahoma
Gilbert Brunet, UK Met Office
WWOSC User, Applications and Social Science Program Session PS321 - August 19, 2014

2. UCAR* Community Advisory Committee for NCEP*
UCACN Goal:
Helping NCEP establish clear leadership in the world as
The Nation’s trusted source, first alert,
and preferred partner for
environmental prediction services
* UCAR: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
* NCEP: National Centers for Environmental Prediction

3. NCEP = Part of Larger Community
Weather & Climate Enterprise
Academia
Private Sector
NOAA
OAR
NESDIS
NOS
NMFS
NWS
NCEP
Regional Offices

4. U.S. National Weather Service
L. Uccellini
L. Furgione
(including WFOs, CWSUs, RFCs)
NCEP
Office of Director – W. Lapenta

5. UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP
Structure
Established by UCAR in 2011 in response to recommendation of 2009 UCAR Review of NCEP
Membership: members (3-year terms, renewable once), including experts in each of the diverse areas of responsibility of the NCEP Centers, drawn from academia, NGOs, the private sector and Federal and state agencies, and selected by UCAR, in consultation with the (co-)Chair(s) of the UCACN and the Director of NCEP
Responsibilities
Every 5 years, conduct a comprehensive review of NCEP or other major strategic planning task
In years between reviews, monitor progress of the Centers w.r.t. NCEP strategic plan and the previous review recommendations.

6. Current UCACN Members
Member, Affiliation Term Expertise Alan Blumberg, Stevens Inst OPC, NHC, EMC (MMAB) Lance Bosart, U. Albany 2016 HPC, NHC, SPC Gilbert Brunet, UK Met Office 2015 EMC, OD* Fred Carr (Co-Chair), U. Oklahoma 2015 AWC, HPC, NHC, SPC, OD John Dutton, Prescient Weather 2015 CPC, EMC, NCO Jim Kinter (Co-Chair) , COLA & GMU 2015 CPC, EMC, NCO, OPC, OD Bill Kuo, NCAR 2016 EMC, NCO Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State U HPC, SPC, OPC Tsengdar Lee, NASA 2015 EMC, NCO Warren Qualley, Harris Corp AWC Karen Shelton-Mur, FAA 2015 SWPC TBD 2017 NHC * OD = Office of the Director (NCEP)

7. UCACN Findings
The 2009 UCAR Review formulated 263 recommendations to NCEP (OD and 9 Centers). Review reports are public:
NCEP is performing well in its primary mission of providing products and services in support of protecting life and property in a timely manner.
Many of its service centers are recognized as world leaders in their particular missions and in making real-time weather and climate data, codes, and other products freely available.
Much of NCEP’s recent progress was due to the strong leadership of the NCEP Director (Uccellini), which has been recognized and commended by UCACN. New NCEP Director (Lapenta) also committed to strategic thinking.

8. UCACN Findings (2)
NCEP is under-resourced for its mission. EMC, in particular, is not equipped to fulfill its vision to provide world-leading models with its current structure and broad portfolio.

9. Leadership Opportunities
In order to help the US become a Weather-Ready nation, NCEP has the opportunity to provide leadership on several crucial issues confronting the Weather and Climate Enterprise:
Unique to NCEP and US NWS:
Warn on Forecast; Impact-based Decision-Support Services
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
Open Environmental Information Services initiative
NWS role in FAA NextGen
Beyond weather and climate: Remit for forecasting ecosystems, air & water quality, space weather, decadal climate, etc.
Typical of NMHS agencies in the 21st century:
High-performance computing, IT security, data mgt., etc.
Improved data assimilation and linkages to observing systems
Climate Services

10. UCACN Recommendations What NCEP Needs To Do
Develop new strategic plan, including partnerships, with foci:
Unified atmospheric, oceanic and coupled modeling system in concert with other parts of NOAA and the weather & climate enterprise
Next generation atmospheric and oceanic data assimilation and ensemble systems - e.g., (coupled) hybrid EnKF-4DVar; NMME
Ocean, coastal and SS&I modeling
Ecological forecasting capabilities
Strengthen test beds (including IT) to accelerate R20 and O2R
Work on Impact-based Decision-support Services (IDSS) via its service centers
Initiate Open Environmental Information Services activities
Build a first class Statistical Forecasting Group to address increasing importance of ensembles and probabilistic forecasting
Support Visiting Scientist Programs - Universities; NOAA labs
Hire outstanding NCEP Chief Scientist (with budget authority) and Directors of CPC, EMC, and WPC

11. UCACN Recommendations What NWS/NOAA/DOC Need to Do
NCEP should be resourced commensurate with its broad mission to ensure improvement of the critical services it provides the nation
Ensure that NCEP has adequate computational and IT resources for both operations and R&D 
Provide mechanisms to attract and retain talented scientists at NCEP
Encourage NCEP’s collaboration with the Earth system modeling community to design and implement the next generation models for weather, climate and oceans
Develop a strategic multi-agency plan for sustaining the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
Create a grants program for weather and NWP in OAR

12. Weather and Climate Interface
Develop a strategic plan for a unified atmospheric, oceanic and coupled modeling system in concert with other parts of NOAA and the weather & climate enterprise, which includes the next generation Climate Forecast System
Consider how best to use the NMME forecasts at shorter leads, e.g., for 1-10 days (enhanced ensemble) and 2-4 weeks (probabilistic)
Evaluate methods of creating ensembles for long-lead weather and short-term climate prediction
Consider reforecasts for validation and calibration of weather and climate forecast ensembles
Investigate HPC and data mgt. resources trade space for resolution, ensembles, improving physics, DA, reanalysis and reforecasts
Evaluate, with strategic partners, NCEP’s role in the Earth System Prediction Capability, s/w framework being led by USN

13. Storm Surge and Inundation
Develop science-based strategic plan for SS&I and oceanographic modeling in general; plan move toward next-generation models, including external partnerships
Consolidate under NCEP the oceanographic NWP missions and resources that are currently spread all over NOAA
Enhance staff to address oceanographic, IT issues
Dedicate more IT resources to SS&I to support the more sophisticated models (and their ensembles) that are needed

14. Regional Modeling
Increased partnerships with OAR and others are very positive
Consolidate regional/mesoscale/stormscale NWP modeling
Evaluate requirements for global and regional models
Move toward one regional (N. America) model w/hourly updates
Provide Centers with storm-scale CONUS forecasts and ensembles
Evaluate “trade space” in allocation of computing resources
Long-term: Unified, community-based systems (possibly two systems for global and storm-scale)

15. Other Challenges / Opportunities
HPC: 2015 computer upgrade and future computing architecture (r)evolution
Space Weather: Managing space weather issues among NWS, NESDIS, NASA and Air Force
Weather and Climate Enterprise (1): Defining role of NCEP vs. private sector in regional/global modeling
Weather and Climate Enterprise (2): More effectively involving academia in addressing issues relating to all of the above

16. Going Forward … Actions are needed in the areas of:
Observations – optimal mix of new obs. systems needed, incl. both satellite and ground-based profiling; OSSEs and OSEs needed, possibly via testbeds; continuous evaluation of value, and more effective use of all obs (e.g. recommendations from NRC “From the Ground Up” report and NASA decadal survey)
Data assimilation – transition to superior scheme (hybrid EnKF - 4DVar), accelerate incorporation of new data streams
Modeling – e.g. recommendations from NRC, “When Weather Matters” and “Second to None” reports; e.g. NCEP/OAR/Univ. coop. re parameterizations (revised physics to match increased resolutions)
Computing resources – X increase over next 5-10 years, balancing operations vs. R&D and FLOPS vs. storage/bandwidth/security/archives
Culture – NCEP needs a credible in-house R&D component that partners effectively with the rest of the modeling community

17. Any questions?
Thank you!