1. Global Environmental Changes: Technology and the Future of Planet Earth
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
College for Seniors, 10 April 2006

2. Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Radiative forcing
Simulations of global climate and future climate change
“Dangerous anthropogenic inter ference with the climate system”?
“Climate surprises”
Summary

3. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

4. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2006

5. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2040
2006

6. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Stabilization at 550 ppm

7. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
(fossil intensive)
2100

13. “Nobody believes that the US economy can still be petroleum based in 2050, yet there is no national plan”
Mark Kushner, Dean
Iowa State University College of Engineering
President’s Council Meeting
13 January 2006

16. El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

20. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

21. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

22. Associated Climate Changes
Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr
Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere
Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15%
Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions
Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere
Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents
Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges
Snow cover decreased by 10%
Earlier flowering dates
Coral reef bleaching
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

23. NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.

24. Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent.
(Illustration from NASA) (

25. Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature V V V
Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436,

26. Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature V V V
Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436,

28. Tropical Weather
Weather Underground:

30. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
From Jerry Meehl
This slide shows the time evolution of globally averaged surface air
temperature from multiple ensemble simulations of 20th century climate
from the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM) compared to observations.
The simulations start in the late 19th century, and continue to the year
The temperature scale at left is in degrees Centigrade, and
temperature anomalies are calculated relative to a reference period
averaged from 1890 to The black line shows the observed data, or
the actual, recorded
globally averaged surface air temperatures from the past century. The
blue and red lines are the average of four simulations each from the
computer model. The pink and light blue shaded areas depict the range
of the four simulations for each experiment, giving an idea of the
uncertainty of a given realization of 20th century climate from the
climate model. The blue line shows the average from the four member
ensemble of the simulated time evolution of globally average surface air
temperature when only "natural" influences (solar variability and
volcanic eruptions) are included in the model. Therefore, the blue
line represents what the model says global average temperatures would
have been if there had been no human influences. The red line shows the
average of the four member ensemble experiment when natural forcings AND
anthropogenic influences (greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide,
sulfate aerosols from air pollution, and ozone changes) are included in
the model. Note that this model can reproduce the actual, observed data
very well only if the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic
factors are included. The conclusion that can be drawn is that
naturally occuring influences on climate contributed to most of the
warming that occurred before WWII, but that the large observed
temperature increases since the 1970s can only be simulated in the model
if anthropogenic factors are included.
This confirms the conclusion of the IPCC Third Assessment Report that
most of the warming we have observed in the latter part of the 20th
century has been due to human influences.
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

31. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
From Jerry Meehl
This slide shows the time evolution of globally averaged surface air
temperature from multiple ensemble simulations of 20th century climate
from the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM) compared to observations.
The simulations start in the late 19th century, and continue to the year
The temperature scale at left is in degrees Centigrade, and
temperature anomalies are calculated relative to a reference period
averaged from 1890 to The black line shows the observed data, or
the actual, recorded
globally averaged surface air temperatures from the past century. The
blue and red lines are the average of four simulations each from the
computer model. The pink and light blue shaded areas depict the range
of the four simulations for each experiment, giving an idea of the
uncertainty of a given realization of 20th century climate from the
climate model. The blue line shows the average from the four member
ensemble of the simulated time evolution of globally average surface air
temperature when only "natural" influences (solar variability and
volcanic eruptions) are included in the model. Therefore, the blue
line represents what the model says global average temperatures would
have been if there had been no human influences. The red line shows the
average of the four member ensemble experiment when natural forcings AND
anthropogenic influences (greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide,
sulfate aerosols from air pollution, and ozone changes) are included in
the model. Note that this model can reproduce the actual, observed data
very well only if the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic
factors are included. The conclusion that can be drawn is that
naturally occuring influences on climate contributed to most of the
warming that occurred before WWII, but that the large observed
temperature increases since the 1970s can only be simulated in the model
if anthropogenic factors are included.
This confirms the conclusion of the IPCC Third Assessment Report that
most of the warming we have observed in the latter part of the 20th
century has been due to human influences.
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

32. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
From Jerry Meehl
This slide shows the time evolution of globally averaged surface air
temperature from multiple ensemble simulations of 20th century climate
from the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM) compared to observations.
The simulations start in the late 19th century, and continue to the year
The temperature scale at left is in degrees Centigrade, and
temperature anomalies are calculated relative to a reference period
averaged from 1890 to The black line shows the observed data, or
the actual, recorded
globally averaged surface air temperatures from the past century. The
blue and red lines are the average of four simulations each from the
computer model. The pink and light blue shaded areas depict the range
of the four simulations for each experiment, giving an idea of the
uncertainty of a given realization of 20th century climate from the
climate model. The blue line shows the average from the four member
ensemble of the simulated time evolution of globally average surface air
temperature when only "natural" influences (solar variability and
volcanic eruptions) are included in the model. Therefore, the blue
line represents what the model says global average temperatures would
have been if there had been no human influences. The red line shows the
average of the four member ensemble experiment when natural forcings AND
anthropogenic influences (greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide,
sulfate aerosols from air pollution, and ozone changes) are included in
the model. Note that this model can reproduce the actual, observed data
very well only if the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic
factors are included. The conclusion that can be drawn is that
naturally occuring influences on climate contributed to most of the
warming that occurred before WWII, but that the large observed
temperature increases since the 1970s can only be simulated in the model
if anthropogenic factors are included.
This confirms the conclusion of the IPCC Third Assessment Report that
most of the warming we have observed in the latter part of the 20th
century has been due to human influences.
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

33. Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

34. The planet is committed to a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

35. The planet is committed to a warming over the next
50 years regardless of
political decisions
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

36. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

37. 40% Probability 5% Probability
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

38. Climate Change
Projected for 2100
Rapid Economic
Growth
Slower Economic
Growth

39. Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment ( Cambridge University Press (

40. IPCC Summary for Policy Makers
An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system
Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate

41. IPCC Summary for Policy Makers, cont’d
There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities
Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries

42. For the Midwest Warming will be greater for winter than summer
Warming will be greater at night than during the day
A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples the probability of a heat wave
Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer now than in 1950)
More precipitation
Likely more soil moisture in summer
More rain will come in intense rainfall events
Higher stream flow, more flooding

43. Climate Surprises
Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)
Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

46. Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (~3 ft) rise in sea level
Kennedy Space
Center
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami

47. What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System”?
James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies:
* Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2
* 1 oC additional rise in global mean
temperature

48. El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

49. El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
Imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

50. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

51. Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying areas
Kennedy Space
Center
Impact of a 1-m
rise in sea level
on low-lying areas
Projected sea-level rise
In 21st century:
0.5 to 1.0 m
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment ( Cambridge University Press (

52. North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Principal Investigator
Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University
Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK
Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada
Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA
Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy
Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada
Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA
Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA

53. NARCCAP Plan A2 Emissions Scenario GFDL CCSM HADAM3 CGCM3 MM5 RegCM3
link to EU
programs
CGCM3
current
future
Provide boundary conditions
MM5
Iowa State/
PNNL
RegCM3
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
CRCM
Quebec,
Ouranos
HADRM3
Hadley Centre
RSM
Scripps
WRF
NCAR/
Note: AGCM time slices to be included, too. Initial phase involves driving RCMs with reanalysis output.
Reanalyzed climate ,

54. Climate Model Resolution
global
regional (land)
regional (water)
Only every second
RCM grid point is
shown in each
direction

55. Application of Climate Change Scenarios
Crop pathogens
Habitat/climate for invasive species
Soil or aquatic ecosystems
Hardiness zones for trees
Freshwater availability
Lake-level changes
Recreation changes
Space-heating/power demands
Crop yields
Soil carbon levels
Soil erosion
Bird migration patterns
Dairy cow milk production
Heat stress in beef cattle
Snowpack/reservoir performance

56. Summary
Climate change is real and we need to be doing something about it to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”
Mitigation will have no effect for 50 years, so we need to develop adaptation strategies for the short term
The longer we wait, the fewer our options
Regional patterns of warming will be complicated
Climate surprises can’t be discounted
We need dialog between scientists and the private sector to develop both adaptation and mitigation strategies

57. For More Information
For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:
Contact me directly: