1. KEY 192A Engineering Key Community Seminar
August 28, 2017
The “Master Equation” for Resource Depletion and Environmental Impact from Human Activity
Anthony J. Marchese
Professor and Associate Dean
Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523

2. The Anomalous Age of Easy Energy
Peak Oil
Are we there yet?
The Anomalous Age of Easy Energy

3. The Master Equation Fossil Fuel Depletion (A Matter of WHEN…not IF)
FFC/GDP is fundamentally constrained by the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics!

4. Peak Oil
“Anomalous Age of Easy Energy” is Nearing its End

5. Peak Oil “Anomalous Age of Easy Oil” is Nearing its End
Campbell, C. J. (2012). The Anomalous Age of Easy Energy. Energy, Transport and the Environment, Springer.

6. Non-Conventional Liquid Fossil Fuels
Substantial Resources Still Exist for GTL or CTL
Enhanced oil recovery
Potential Liquid Hydrocarbon Production (Gbbl)
Brandt, A. R and Farrell, A. E. (2007). Scraping the bottom of the barrel: greenhouse gas emission consequences of a transition to low-quality and synthetic petroleum resources. Climate Change, 84, pp

7. Keeling Curve, CO2 at Mauna Loa
The Master Equation
Also works for Anthropogenic Greenhouse CO2 Emissions
CO2 Emissions
Keeling Curve, CO2 at Mauna Loa

8. U.S. Natural Gas Production
Shale Gas is a Vast Energy Source

9. Shale Gas Production:
A Very Recent Phenomenon!

10. Fracking Gets Most of the Attention
But there are Other Climate and Environmental Issues

11. Environmental Impacts of Oil and Gas
Effects are Local and Global

12. Methane Leakage from Natural Gas Supply Chain
Methane is a Potent Greenhouse Gas!
Good News: When combusted, natural gas releases less CO2 on a per unit energy basis than coal:
Coal: C + O2 → CO Natural Gas: CH4 + 2O2 → CO2 + 2H2O

13. Methane Leakage from Natural Gas Supply Chain
Methane is a Potent Greenhouse Gas!
Good News: When combusted, natural gas releases less CO2 on a per unit energy basis than coal:
Coal: C + O2 → CO Natural Gas: CH4 + 2O2 → CO2 + 2H2O
Alert: Natural gas is composed predominantly of methane (CH4), which is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2.

14. Methane Leakage from Natural Gas Supply Chain
Methane is a Potent Greenhouse Gas!
Good News: When combusted, natural gas releases less CO2 on a per unit energy basis than coal:
Coal: C + O2 → CO Natural Gas: CH4 + 2O2 → CO2 + 2H2O
Alert: Natural gas is composed predominantly of methane (CH4), which is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2.

15. Methane Leakage from Natural Gas Supply Chain
Methane is a Potent Greenhouse Gas!
Good News: When combusted, natural gas releases less CO2 on a per unit energy basis than coal:
Coal: C + O2 → CO Natural Gas: CH4 + 2O2 → CO2 + 2H2O
Red Alert: If more than a few percent of the natural gas leaks out before we burn it, then GHG emissions from natural gas could be worse than coal!

16. Natural Gas Infrastructure is Ubiquitous
Exploration, Production, Gathering, Processing, Transmission
Emissions from natural gas infrastructure are ubiquitous, potentially persistent and can occur upstream of processing (CH4, VOC’s, HAPs)
Transmission
Production
Gathering and Processing