1. Geert Bruinooge Deputy Director-General Statistics Netherlands
International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends Ottawa, May 2009
Geert Bruinooge
Deputy Director-General
Statistics Netherlands

2. SESSION 4; Extrapolation, modelling, econometric and sampling techniques used in the preparations of rapid estimates

3. The professionalism of statisticians is judged by their capacity to combine a high degree of reliability with satisfactory rapidity free quote from: “Understanding NATIONAL ACCOUNTS”, OECD

4. Quote: “I want to know today, what happened yesterday” Central banker, February 2009

5. Different approaches Rapid indicators of monthly GDP
Economic models forecasting main economic variables
Surveys
Composite indicators
Separate indicators for parts of economy

6. Monthly estimates of GDP
Use of well established statistical methods
New rapid estimates for white spots
International effort to provide common methodology and framework

7. Economic models forecasting main economic variables
Forecasts may prove wrong
Exogenous data may contain errors
Model may be subject to error
Model may fail due to structural break in economic development
Forecasts may jeopardize public trust in NSI’s
NSI’s shouldn’t forecast but stop at now casts

8. Surveys
Surveys are useful for information on the present and near future state of the economy
Representative surveys with low sampling variability are costly and lack timeliness
Many NSI’s have to use data registers and administrations (VAT, wage tax)

9. Composite indicators
Composite indicators present already available data in consistent and coherent way
Composite indicators consist of coincident, leading and lagging indicators
Careful selection of variables

10. Separate indicators
Separate indicators linked to specific characteristics of countries
Examples:
Freight (by container, by air, by road)
Mobile call minutes
Visitor arrivals
New cars registration
Floor area under construction
Production of cement
ATM cash withdrawals, electronic payments
Careful selection of indicators based on sharp criteria

11. Concluding remarks Different approaches Promising results
Much work to be done
“Proof of the pudding is in the eating”
International comparability