1. IMPACT OF MIGRATIONS AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT - SUMADIJA AND POMORAVLJE, SERBIA - Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia and Regional Economic Development Agency for Sumadija and Pomoravlje (REDASP)

2. SORS participates at the project in partnership with Regional Economic Development Agency for Sumadija and Pomoravlje.
Our main goal was to produce population projections for the region of Sumadija and Pomoravlje , by age and gender.
The region of Sumadija and Pomoravlje NUTS3 level consists of Sumadija District with 7 municipalities and Pomoravlje District with 6 municipalities.
The method used for population projections was analytical cohort-component method.
PROJECTIONS WERE DONE IN FIVE VARIANTS:
1) low, 2) middle, 3) high, 4) variant of constant fertility and mortality and 5) variant of zero migration balance.

3. RESULTS OF POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR SUMADIJA AND POMORAVLJE
The Republic of Serbia 2011 – average age 42,2

4. RESULTS OF PROJECTIONS IN ALL VARIANTS SHOW THE FOLLOWING TRENDS:
Decrease – total population, and age groups 0-14% and 15-64%
Increase life-expectancy, average age, population age groups 65+% and 80+%.

5. SORS → POPULATION PROJECTIONS +
PARTNERSHIP WITH SORS
SORS → POPULATION PROJECTIONS +
REDASP → QUALITATIVE INPUT AND LSG OWNERSHIP OF PS RESULTS =
MMWD TOOLS INTEGRATED IN POLICY PLANNING TO FACE DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES

6. What we have done
Motivated national, regional and local stakeholders and involved item in the process – Ministries of economy and education, SEIO, NARD, RDAs, local self-governments, NES, Regional Chamber of Commerce, Social welfare center, Center for professional upgrading, SCOs
Encouraged Cross-sector dialogue and aproach (round tables and inter-sector review of policy scenario / qualitative dimension)
Collected qualitative input to qwantitative data processed by SORS
Knowlege exchange day and training material on migration impacts and policy scenario development provided for the stakeholders
Implementation of pilot initiatives (wp6) in the process of revision of local development and sector strategies
Policy scenario for Sumadija and Pomoravlje

7. DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS / BASE FOR POLICY SCENARIO
Continuous depopulation, in all variants of projections
All variants of projections show reduced number and share of youth younger than 15 – according to the variant of low fertility reduced for one quarter
Reduced number and share of persons years of age for 17% - according to variant of zero migration saldo, even for one fifth – emphasizes relevance of migration for future stability of labor market
Significant increase of share of old persons – only the synchronized effects of migrations and increasing fertility (high variant) can slower the effects of population growing older
Immigrations without growing fertility increase effects of population growing older
Consequences of low fertility (number of new borns) are the key challenge in the future on both stability of labor market and sustainability of welfare system
Significant increase of the rate of dependency – especially higher pressure due to older population. More persons 80 and older than 80.
Moderate trend of growing positive migration saldo followed by the low fertility trend CANNOT REDUCE CHALLENGES!

8. Main challenges
LABOUR MARKET in the Region is characterized by the following parameters:
Mismatch between supply and demand for labour force,
Increased disparity in qualification
Age and professional structure of the employed
High rate of youth unemployment and
High rate of people with lower and middle levels of education,
High long-term unemployment with large intra-regional imbalances of unemployment.

9. EDUCATION
The decline in the total population that leads to a decline of work capable population, imposes the need to improve the knowledge and skills of the existing labour force, especially of those who are just entering the labour market.
Raising the quality of the work force by education and training and social inclusion of individuals and groups who are socially excluded will have an increasing importance for the balance of the labor market. In this regard, it is very important to invest efficiently in education – from Functional elementary and vocational adult education and training to professional upgrading and development of new skills

10. SOCIAL SERVICES
After macro-economic conditions got worse after the global economic crisis and rising unemployment, living standards were deteriorated.
Consequently, number of beneficiaries of social services increased, in particular:
children affected by family situation
persons without income
old persons.
The absolute poverty line, after the global economic crisis, marked an increase that is continued until today.
MEASURES OF SOCIAL INCLUSION OF THE MOST VULNERABLE GROUPS ARE OF GREAT RELEVANCE TO LABOUR MARKET SITUATION.

11. FURTHER CHALLENGES FOR THE REGION
Lack of data/ records on migration, especially emigration
Disparity of standard statistical data, especially on education levels, in comparison with EU countries
Centralized system, slow integration of regional institutions
Lack of cross-sector approach in policy making
Policy making affected by instable political situation – at all levels
Not integrated evidence-based planning nor migration management
NEEDED
INTERNATIONAL NETWORKS AND USE OF SCIENTIFIC METHODS
EXPERT BODIES FOR MIGRATION MANAGEMENT INDEPENDENT OF POLITICAL SHANGES

12. T H A N K Y O U
SORS and REDASP
Serbia
October 13, 2014