1. Heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
Chair: Costas Papanicolas
Speaker: Panos Hadjinicolaou
PHOEBE 1

2. Observed global warming
> 0.7 degrees Celsius
Persistent
“Unprecedented”

3. MENA: Middle Eastern and Maghreb countries (“Greater Middle East”)
Mediterranean

4. 20th century observed warming
Strong (~0.5o )
Fast (within 20 years)
Widespread (in all sub-domains)
Tanarhte et al., J. Geophys. Res., 2012

5. 21st century IPCC summer temperature
4o-6oC by 2100 with business as usual scenario RCP8.5
> 1.5o-2oC warming by 2050 (= Paris agreement goals) even with stabilisation scenario RCP4.5
Lelieveld et., Clim. Change, 2016

6. 21st century temperature extremes
By 2100, with business as usual scenario RCP8.5:
Dramatic increase of heat extremes
Heatwave duration increases x 10 times
Max. temperatures during hottest days reach 50oC
Lelieveld et., Clim. Change, 2016

7. MENA climate change hot spot
Hot desert climate intensifies and becomes more extreme
More frequent and intense heat waves (strong health impacts) 
Max average temperature during hottest days can exceed 50oC
Heat stress combines with other environmental stresses in urban locations (UHI effect and air pollution)
Habitability for humans may be compromised (migration)

8. Auxiliary material

9. References
Klingmüller, K., Pozzer, A., Metzger, S., Stenchikov, G. L., and Lelieveld, J., (2016) Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, , doi: /acp
Lelieveld, J., Hoor, P., Jöckel, P., Pozzer, A., Hadjinicolaou, P., Cammas, J.-P., and Beirle, S., (2009) Severe ozone air pollution in the Persian Gulf region, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9,
Lelieveld, J., Hadjinicolaou, P., Kostopoulou, E., Chenoweth, J., El Maayar, M., Giannakopoulos, C., Hannides, C., Lange, M., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., Xoplaki, E., (2012) Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, Climatic Change, 114, , DOI /s
Lelieveld, J., Hadjinicolaou, P., Kostopoulou, E., Giannakopoulos, C., Pozzer, A., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., (2014) Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century, Regional Environmental Change, 14 (5),
Lelieveld J., Proestos Y., Hadjinicolaou P., Tanarhte M., Tyrlis E., Zittis G., (2016) Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century. Climatic Change, doi: /s
Tanarhte, M., Hadjinicolaou P., and Lelieveld J., (2012) Intercomparison of temperature and precipitation datasets based on observations in the Mediterranean and the Middle-East, Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D12102, doi: /2011JD017293
Zachariadis, T., and Hadjinicolaou, P., (2014) The effect of climate change on electricity needs – a case study from Mediterranean Europe, Energy, 76, , Special Issue SDEWES 2013: Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Zanis, P., Hadjinicolaou, P., Pozzer, A., Tyrlis, E., Dafka, S., Mihalopoulos, N., and Lelieveld, J., (2014) Summertime free-tropospheric ozone pool over the eastern Mediterranean/Middle East, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14 (1),

10. 20th century observed drying
> 50 mm less annual rainfall
Spatially variable
More wet Arabia
Tanarhte et al., J. Geophys. Res., 2012

11. Lelieveld et., Clim. Change, 2016
21th century rainfall
Low robustness (inter-model agreement) for rainfall projections
Drying in Mediterranean, North Africa
(very likely)
More rain over Middle East
(probably)
Lelieveld et., Clim. Change, 2016

12. Frequencies of summer (JJA) maximum temperature anomalies (%)
Lelieveld et al., Reg. Env. Change, 2014
Blue is reference period (centered around 0oC) and red is end-of-century