1. Large scale modelling of the distribution
of butterfly biodiversity in Europe
using the BioVeL portal on the EGI infrastructure
Yuliya Fetyukova, Hannu Saarenmaa, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland; Matthias Obst, Sarah Bourlat, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden;
Renato De Giovanni, Reference Center on Environmental Information, Campinas SP, Brazil;
Alan Williams, Norman Morrison, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK,
Francisco Quevedo, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
20 May 2014
University of Helsinki, EGI Community Forum 2014

2. Butterfly distribution modelling
Species distribution modelling allows determining variation among species and their shifts over time as responds to climate and environmental changes.
Butterflies are good and viable biological indicators:
- well documented;
- easy to identify and monitor;
- butterflies and moths comprise 5% of terrestrial biodiversity;
- react quickly to changes.
Study case steps: - modelling historical and current species distribution;
- estimate future climatic changes on species;
- computation of habitat suitability shifts
- compute trends in change of abundance, and estimate Essential Biodiversity Variables

3. Ecological niche modelling
General principles of Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) method

4. BioVeL Ecological niche modelling
The BioVeL project is creating a set of workflows (series of data analysis steps) and Web Services for scientists to perform different analyses in the fields of ecology, taxonomy, phylogenetics and metagenomics.
Data
Species occurrence data of all Butterflies in Europe*
344 species occurrence data sets
GBIF Data Portal
Environmental layers
WorldClim repository
Tools Data Refinement Workflow, DRF
Ecological niche modelling workflow, ENM The ENM Statistical Workflow, ESW BioVeL portal data sweep function for batch processing
* Karsholt, O. & Razowski, J. (Eds.), The Lepidoptera of Europe: A distributional checklist, 380 pp, Apollo Books, Stenstrup, Denmark

5. GBIF species occurrence data
344 GBIF species occurrence data sets have been processed by BioVeL workflows
Europe mask: decimalLatitude: [32, 72]; decimalLongitude: [-10, 40]

6. Species occurrence data
Erynnis tages [Dingy Skipper] georeferenced data
BioSTIF: Biodiversity Spatial Temporal Interactive interface
1776 occurrences
Erynnis tages: Species distribution in 1960 – 1990

7. Historic species distribution
Erynnis tages species distribution in 1960 – 1990
Algorithm:
Maximum entropy
Terrestrial layers :
- Annual mean temperature;
- Annual precipitation;
- Maximum temperature of warmest month;
- Minimum temperature of coldest month.
- Altitude in meters
Overall coverage:
74.8%
Overall intensity:
10.7%

8. Habitat suitability shifts by 2050
Erynnis tages: diffLayer = predictionLayer – historicalLayer
Cells with colors from green to red indicate an increase
and from green to blue a decrease of predicted potential for a species.

9. Shift vectors SHIFT vectors: 1 Erynnis tages 622.42 km3
SHIFT vectors:
1 Erynnis tages km
2 Spialia sertorius km
3 Carcharodus alceae km

10. Coverage and Intensity statistics
increase(+)/
decrease(-)
in coverage, %
intensity , %
intensity 2050, %
in intensity, %
Erynnis tages
74.77
84.14
9.37
10.75
10.26
-0.48
Spialia sertorius
63.45
78.69
15.23
6.05
4.71
-1.34
Carcharodus alceae
83.46
97.34
13.89
16.64
20.09
3.45
species
Essential Biodiversity Variable of overall butterfly distribution change
STACK of 344 maps

11. BioVeL portal & ENM wfs EGI deployment of ENM related services:
- parallelized computation and hence scalable workflow execution
Portal sweep data functionality:
- batch processing of large amount of species

12. THANK YOU!