1. 2013 Wisconsin Health Trends: Progress Report
  September 2013

2. How to Interpret the Report
The Wisconsin Health Trends: Progress Report is useful for examining how the rates of specific health indicators have changed over the past year, compared to long term trends. Here is a guide to understanding the numbers and graphs provided in this report.
The known data points for the 10 years prior to the current year are graphed and a best fit linear regression is added to the graph. A decreasing line indicates improvement.
The line is extended in order to show the expected value if Wisconsin continued with the same trend as in the previous 10 years ( ).
3. The current observed value (green dot) is shown along with its 90% statistical confidence interval. Comparing this point to the expected trend line provides a comparison of how well
4. Wisconsin is doing currently compared to what was expected.
The difference is calculated as: Percent Difference= ((observed value-expected value)/ expected value)) ×100
For the infant death rate example above, the baseline trend shows that infant mortality rates decreased 0.8% per year (i.e. an improving trend). This is good news for Wisconsin. The trend is improving and the current rate (2010, the most recent year of data available), is 9.4% less than expected (5.7 vs. 6.3). This indicates that Wisconsin performed much better than expected. This would indicate that Wisconsin may continue to improve in the future.

3. Trend and Current Progress
How to Assess Baseline
Trend and Current Progress

4. Health Outcomes
All baseline trend lines for health outcomes are color coded to represent the progress a certain indicator has over a ten year span. Progress can be coded two shades of green denoting improvement, yellow which represents no change, and two shades of red that denoting a worse progress trend. All current rate circles are also color coded to represent the current state of an indicator. Current rates are depicted as red circles, denoting worse progress, a yellow circle denoting no difference, or two green circles denoting better progress.

5. Health Factors
All baseline trend lines for health factors are color coded to represent the progress a certain indicator has over a ten year span. Progress can be coded two shades of green denoting improvement, yellow which represents no change, and two shades of red that denoting a worse progress trend. All current rate circles are also color coded to represent the current state of an indicator. Current rates are depicted as red circles, denoting worse progress, a yellow circle denoting no difference, or two green circles denoting better progress.

6. Premature Death Health Outcome Trends
The current rate for adult premature death is 5,758 deaths, which is higher than the expected baseline trend predicts. Premature death rates are making better progress as the general trend seems to be an overall decline in adult premature death rates over a ten year period.

7. Low Birthweight Health Outcome Trends
The current rate for births less than 2500 grams is 7 percent, which is lower than the expected baseline trend predicts. Low birthweight percentage rates are making worse progress as the general trend seems to be an overall increase in low birthweight rates over a ten year period.

8. Self-Reported Health Health Outcome Trends
The current rate for adults with fair or poor health is 14.7 percent, which is higher than the expected baseline trend predicts. Adults with fair or poor health rates are making worse progress as the general trend seems to be an overall increase in adults with fair or poor health over a ten year period.

9. All Ages Death Health Outcome Trends
The current rate age-adjusted death rates per 100,000 population is 717, which is higher than the expected baseline trend predicts. Age-adjusted death rates are making better progress as the general trend seems to be an overall decline in age-adjusted death rates over a ten year period.

10. Infant Death Health Outcome Trends
The current infant death rate per 1,000 live births is 5.7 deaths, which is lower than the expected baseline trend predicts. Infant death rates are making better progress as the general trend seems to be an overall decline in infant death rates over a ten year period.

11. 1-24 Year Old Death Health Outcome Trends
The current death rate among 1-14 year olds per 100,000 population is 15.4 deaths, which is higher than the expected baseline trend predicts. Death rates among 1-14 year olds per 100,000 population are making better progress as the general trend seems to be an overall decline in death rates over a ten year period.

12. 25-64 Year Old Death Health Outcome Trends
The current death rate among year olds per 100,000 population is 60.1 deaths, which is expected when looking at the baseline trend prediction. Death rates among year olds per 100,000 population are making better progress as the general trend seems to be an overall decline in death rates over a ten year period.

13. 65+ Year Old Death Health Outcome Trends
The current death rate among adults age per 100,000 population is 117 deaths, which is higher than the expected baseline trend predicts. Death rates among year olds per 100,000 population are making better progress as the general trend seems to be an overall decline in death rates over a ten year period.

14. Health Behavior Trends
Adult Smoking
Health Behavior Trends
The current rate of adult smoking is 18.2 percent, which is expected when looking at the baseline trend predictions. Adult smoking rates are making better progress as the general trend seems to be an overall decline in death rates over a ten year period.

15. Health Behavior Trends
Adult Obesity
Health Behavior Trends
The current rate of adult obesity is 27 percent, which is lower than the expected baseline trend predicts. Adult obesity is making worse progress as the general trend seems to be an overall increase in adult obesity percentages over a ten year period.

16. Adult Excessive Drinking
Health Behavior Trends
The current adult excessive drinking rate is 21 percent, which is lower than the expected baseline trend predicts. Adult excessive drinking rates are making better progress as the general trend seems to be an overall decline in death rates over a ten year period.

17. Health Behavior Trends
Teen Birth Rate
Health Behavior Trends
The current teen birth rate per 1,000 females aged is 26.5 births, which is lower than the expected baseline trend predicts. Teen birth rates are making better progress as the general trend seems to be an overall decline in death rates over a ten year period.

18. No Health Insurance (0-17)
Clinical Care Trends
The current rate of individuals under 18 years of age without health insurance at any point during the last year is 6 percent, which is higher than the expected baseline trend predicts. Uninsured rates among individuals under 18 years of age are making better progress as the general trend seems to be an overall decline in death rates over a ten year period.

19. No Health Insurance (18-64)
Clinical Care Trends
The current rate of individuals between years old without health insurance at any point during the past year is 15 percent, which is higher than the expected baseline trend predicts. Uninsured rates among year old individuals making no progress as the general trend seems to be fairly consistent over a ten year period.
Slides 20 and 21 have different language to describe the y axis in the graph!!

20. Social and Economic Trends
High School Drop-Out
Social and Economic Trends
The current high school drop-out rate is 2.2 percent, which is lower than the expected baseline trend predicts. High school drop out rates are making worse progress as the general trend seems to be an overall increase in drop-out rates over a ten year period.

21. Social and Economic Trends
Unemployment Rate
Social and Economic Trends
The current unemployment rate is 6.9 percent, which is lower than the expected baseline trend predicts but steadily increasing over a ten year trend. The unemployment rate is making worse progress as the general trend seems to be an overall increase in unemployment rates over a ten year period.

22. Social and Economic Trends
Children in Poverty
Social and Economic Trends
The current rate of children living in poverty is percent, which is expected when looking at the baseline trend predictions. The percentage of children living in poverty is steadily increasing over a ten year trend. Children living in poverty is making worse progress as the general trend seems to be an overall increase in child poverty over a ten year period.

23. Social and Economic Trends
Violent Crime Rate
Social and Economic Trends
The current rate of violent crime per 100,000 is 252 crimes, which is lower than the baseline trend predicts. The violent crime rate displays an increasing baseline trend line over a ten year period with a lower rate than expected. Violent crime rates is making worse progress as the general trend seems to be an overall increase in violent crime rates over a ten year period.

24. Physical Environment Trends
Air Pollution
Physical Environment Trends
The current rate of air pollution is 10 ug/m3, which is lower than the expected baseline trend predicts. Air pollution rates are making no progress as the general trend seems to be fairly consistent over a ten year period.

25. Funding for this project was provided by the UW School of Medicine and Public Health from the Wisconsin Partnership Program.

26. Contact Information University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute Department of Population Health Sciences University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health 575 WARF Building 610 Walnut Street Madison, WI  
For additional information, the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute contact information has been provided.