1. The Role of Theory in Criminology

2. What is a Theory?

3. Why Have Theory? Answers the question, why?
Make sense of the facts we observe
Predict what may happen in the future
Shape and direct scientific research
Shape and direct policies to reduce crime

4. Examples of Theories

5. Crime Theory and Common Sense
“It’s all in the genes”
“He’s from the wrong side of the tracks”
“She got in with the wrong crowd”
“What he needs is a good stiff kick”
“It’s the parents fault”
“We’ve got to stop coddling criminals”
“It’s the music she listens to”
“How else could he hope to get rich?”
“His teachers expected him to fail, so he did”
Current events

6. What is Criminological Theory?
Articulated propositions
Specify the relationships between variables
Unarticulated propositions
Assumptions about human beings
Cognitive (empirical) validity
Does the theory fit with research results?

7. Specifying the Relationships Between Variables
Direct (causal) effect
A affects C directly
Indirect (mediated) effect
A affects C by affecting B
B is the mediating variable A C A B C

8. Specifying the Relationship Between Variables
Interaction effect
The relationship between A and C differs depending on B A C B
- B conditions the relationship A and C
- B moderates the relationship A and C

9. Specifying the Relationship Between Variables
Correlation, not causation
A and C are correlated but not causally related A C

10. Specifying the Relationship Between Variables
Exogenous variables
Not explained by the causal diagram or model
Endogenous variables
Explained by the causal diagram or model

11. Causal Diagram

12. A Basic Issue
Is criminal behavior caused or is it the product of free will?
If caused, are criminals biologically different than non-criminals, or is it their social experiences that matter most?