1. Department of Meteorology and Hydrology Myanmar
Forecast for WINTER Season
MYANMAR
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology
Myanmar 1

2. verification of the consensus forecast issued by SASCOF-9
Content
Climate of Myanmar
El-Nino/La-Nina
Condition
verification of the consensus forecast issued by SASCOF-9
Forecast for Northeast Monsoon season (Nov& Dec,2017) & (Jan and Feb,2018)

3. Climate of Myanmar Annual Rainfall & Heavy Rainfall episode
Main Influence & Season
Criteria for Heavy Rainfall (Dry Zone)
RF—38mm/24hr and more
Southwest monsoon
Northeast monsoon
Rainy
Winter
Summer
Seasons
Monsoon System
Criteria for Heavy Rainfall (others)
RF—77mm/24hr and more

4. El Nino and La Nina Condition

5. 2016 NW Monsoon Condition and verification of the consensus forecast issued by SASCOF-9 for Northeast monsoon season

6. Definition of Normal, Above & Below of normal (Precipitation)
Normal : Average amount of previous 30 years (at least) rainfall
data (Between -20 % and +20 %)
Above Normal : > (+ 20%) of the Normal
Below Normal : < (- 20%) of the Normal
% Departure : (Actual/Normal)*

7. Mean Temperature in November (1981-2010)
Actual Mean Temperature in November,2016

8. Mean Temperature in December (1981-2010)
Actual Mean Temperature in December,2016

9. Mean Temperature in January (1981-2010)
Actual Mean Temperature in January,2016

10. Mean Temperature in February (1981-2010)
Actual Mean Temperature in February,2017

11. Consensus Temp Outlook for the 2016 Northeast Monsoon
And Actual Temp for Myanmar in NE Monsoon Season
During the season, normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region.
Normal-NDJF
Actual-NDJF

12. Above Normal Minimum temperature in Chin, Bago, Kayah and Mon
About normal in the Remaining Regions and States during winter season.
In 2016 winter season,
Below
Above

13. Normal Rainfall in October
( )
Actual Rainfall in October, 2016

14. Normal Rainfall in November
( )
Actual Rainfall in November, 2016

15. Normal Rainfall in December
( )
Actual Rainfall in December, 2016

16. Below Normal Above Normal Normal
Percentage Departure Rainfall in Nov, 2016
Percentage Departure Rainfall in Oct, 2016
Percentage Departure Rainfall in Dec, 2016
Normal
Above Normal
Below Normal

17. Verification with Actual and Consensus Outlook for the 2016 Northeast Monsoon Rainfall
rainfall distribution is below normal and normal during the 2016 northeast monsoon season (Oct – Dec) over Myanmar.
Above Normal Below

18. Temperature and Rainfall Forecast for Northeast Monsoon Season (October-December), 2017

19. ECMWF
Below Normal Rainfall in southern and Eastern Myanmar
others normal

20. NOAA/CPC
Slightly above Normal Rainfall in the whole country

21. Normal
Above Normal

22. nmme
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
Above Normal

23. Forecast for 2018 Northeast Monsoon Season (Oct, 2107 to Feb,2018)
forecast for NDJF,
Below Normal
Normal
Above Normal

24. Lower Myanmar: Normal Temperature
NOAA/CPC
Lower Myanmar: Normal Temperature
Upper Myanmar :Above Normal Temperature

25. Normal Temperature in the whole Myanmr

26. Above
Normal
Above : Upper Myanmar
Normal : Lowe Myanmar

27. Temperature forecast for 2017 NE Monsoon Season(Oct to Dec)
Above : Upper Myanmar
Normal : Lower Myanmar