1. MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF OUR TIME IN THE 21ST CENTURY
More lectures at Disasters Supercourse -
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

2. CREATING PARADIGM SHIFTS THAT WILL ACCELERATE THE TRANSITION FROM BEING DISASTER PRONE TO BEING DISASTER RESILIENT

3. THE CHALLENGE OF THE 21ST CENTURY
Protecting and preserving PEOPLE and COMMUNITIES from the potential disaster agents of natural hazards

4. A SNAPHOT OF OUR WORLD 7 billion people, and growing while…
Living and competing in an interconnected global economy,
Producing $60 trillion of products each year, and
Facing complex disasters every year that can adversely impact a community’s 3 S’s, 5E’s, and 1H.

5. THE 3 S’s
SAFETY (from the potential disaster agents of recurring natural hazards)
SECURITY
SUSTAINABILITY

6. THE FIVE E’s
ECONOMY
ENERGY
ENVIRONMENT
ECOLOGY
EDUCATION

7. THE 1 H
HEALTH CARE

8. A DISASTER is ---
--- the set of failures that occur when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.    

9. THE THREE CONTINUUMS OF EVERY DISASTER
PEOPLE
COMMUNITY
RECURRING EVENTS (AKA the potential disaster agents of Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

10. FIVE INTER-CONNECTED WEAK-LINKS CAUSE DISASTERS
UN--PREPARED
UN—PROTECTED
UN---WARNED
UN--ABLE TO RESPOND
UN--RESILIENT

11. LIKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS during THE 21ST CENTURY
Increasing morbidity, mortality, homelessness, and economic losses from recurring natural hazards striking non-disaster-resilient communities
Threats related to global climate change
Environmental degradation and pollution of air, water, and soil
Endangerment and extinction of plant and animal life

12. liKELY CAUSES OF COMPLEX DISASTERS during THE 21ST CENTURY
Poverty
Chronic hunger
Health care needs
Increasing risk of pandemic disease
Large-scale migration of people
Endangered plant and animal life
Conflict and terrorism

13. AN UNDESIRABLE LEGACY OF THE 21ST CENTURY
Before we realize it, we could share in an unnecessary and irreversible reduction in the quality of life on Planet Earth if we fail to design and implement a global strategy for disaster resilience.

14. THE “BEST SOLUTION SET” IS THE FRAMEWORK OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
To anticipate and plan for the full spectrum of what can happen, and build capacity FOR preparedness, protection, early warning, emergency response, and recovery in every community.
To inform, educate, train, and build equity in all sectors of the community,

15. WHEN YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO IT, --- JUST DO IT!
Communities working strategically can implement a realistic set of scientific, technical, and political solutions to reach the elusive goal of disaster resilience --- within EXISTING administrative, legal, and economic constraints, --- NOW.

16. STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY
THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CREATING A PARADIGM SHIFT FOR COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE ENCOMPASSES
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS
INTEGRATION OF SCIENCE AND PUBLIC POLICY
PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EM. RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY

17. RECOVERY FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE ARE INTERCONNECTED
PREPAREDNESS
AND EARLY WARNING
PROTECTION
ALL ELEMENTS ARE INTERRELATED
RECOVERY
EMERGENCY RESPONSE

20. THE GLOBAL AGENDA: COMMUNITY DISASTER RESILIENCE
EXPERIENCES WITH PREPAREDNESS
EXPERIENCES WITH PROTECTION
EXPAND PARTNERSHIPS FROM TO THE PRESENT (E.G., IDNDR, AND ISDR)
GLOBAL BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE
EXPERIENCES WITH EMERGENCY RESPONSE
EXPERIENCES WITH RECOVERY

21. FACTORS THAT FACILITATE PARADIGM SHIFTS
PUBLIC AWARENESS OF EACH PROBLEM AND THE BENEFIT/COSTS OF ITS SOLUTION SET.
A COMMON AGENDA PROMOTED BY PARTNERSHIPS THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
INCENTIVES FOR POLITICAL LEADERS AND SCIENTISTS TO ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT PUBLIC POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE.

22. CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES
POLICY CHANGE 1: FOCUS ON THE NATURE AND APPROPRIATENESS OF ACTIONS BY GLOBAL PARTNERS AND THE WAYS TO ENLIST SUPPORT AND RESOURCES FOR THE FIVE PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE.

23. CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES
POLICY CHANGE 2: FOSTER CHANGE BY INTEGRATING POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES FOR PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY BASED ON EXISTING LEGAL MANDATES.

24. CHANGES BASED ON A LARGER SOCIAL CONSTRUCT OF THE ISSUES
POLICY CHANGE 3: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PARTNERSHIPS UNTIL YOU CAN SOLVE THE PROBLEMS FACED BY LOCAL COMMUN ITIES IN EVERY REGION.

25. TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
TURNING POINTS: Partnerships for Preparedness, Protection, Early Warning Emergency Response, and Recovery
THE KNOWLEDGE BASE
CAPACITY BUILDING
CONTINUING EDUCATION
Best Practices for Mitigation and Adaptation
Gateways to a Deeper Understanding
Real and Near- Real Time Monitoring/Communication
Vulnerability and Risk Characterization
Anticipatory Actions for all Events and Situations
Situation Data Bases
Interfaces with all Real- and Near Real-Time Sources
Cause & Effect Relationships
Close Gaps in Knowledge and Implementation
Seek out, Enlighten, and Enable “Partnerships”
Transfer Ownership of the Knowledge Base
Transfer Ownership of Emerging Technologies
Move Towards A Disaster Intelligent Community
Engage Partners in MMA Learning Experiences
Enlighten Communities on Their Risks
Build Strategic Equity Through “MMA” Scenarios
Multiply “Partnerships” by Regioal/global Twinning
Update Knowledge Bases After Each MMA Scenario

26. YOUR COMMUNITY COMMUNITY GOALS RISK ASSESSMENT ACCEPTABLE RISK
HAZARD MAPS
INVENTORY
VULNERABILITY
LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENT
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
DISASTER RESILIENCE
YOUR COMMUNITY
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR:
PREPAREDNESS, EARLY. WARNING, PROTECTION
EM. RESPONSE
RECOVERY
COMMUNITY GOALS
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS