1. HYDROCARE Actions & Activities Report and
PP8 – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,
Germany
2.1 Compilation of Meteorological Observations,
2.2 Analysis of Variability and Extremes
and
2.3 Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling
Uwe Böhm, Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Hermann Österle, Peter C. Werner
HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

2. Action 2.1 – Compilation of Meteorological Observations
Working Schedule
Specific Task
2006
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Setup of a common list of the requested parameters and length of time series
supply of meteorological data from the project participants to PIK’s data base
Quality control and homogeneity analysis
Filling of gaps and homogenisation of time series
Data sets update and technology provision
Deliverables
Homogenized data records, updated station data set
(to be delivered starting in Dec. 2006)
Action 2.1. Compilation of common meteorological database for the CADSES region
HYDROCARE
, Bratislava

3. Results of the first half year
1. Setup of a common list of the requested parameters and length of time series (I-IV.2006)
Results:
* very limited feedback on the circulated data questionnaire
* suggestion: concentration on precipitation and near-surface temperature
* 30-year period for the length of time series suggested
2. Supply of meteorological data from the project participants to PIK‘s database (IV-VII.2006)
* 10 Slovak stations supplied to project‘s database, (1951(87)-2005, daily),
* data from Poland, Italy, Greek (in progress)
* 750 additional German precipitation stations received from DWD ( )
* 300 additional stations extracted from the synoptical dataset DS512 for the
CADSES region ( , incomplete series)
Action 2.1. Compilation of common meteorological database for the CADSES region
HYDROCARE
, Bratislava

4. Conclusions based on the actual achievments: Compilation of a common dataset on the basis of station observations with sufficient spatial and temporal coverage is not possible Alternative: Compilation of a gridded dataset of daily temperature and precipitation with 0.5° resolution Basis for gridded dataset: Daily Re-Analysis from ECMWF + observation from available stations + gridded monthly data from the global Potsdam Climate Data Set (PCDS) for land areas.
 Ongoing work for activity
2. Supply of meteorological data from the project participants to PIK‘s
database (IV-VII.2006):
Re-Analysis (ERA40) extracted from ECMWF archive ( )
Action 2.1. Compilation of common meteorological database for the CADSES region
HYDROCARE
, Bratislava

5. Results of the first half year (cont.)
3. Quality control and homogeneity analysis (VI-X.2006)
First results:
- 750 German and 10 Slovakia stations controlled and homogenized
- ERA40 compared with observation data (German stations):
Temperature:
* ERA40 is 0.3°K to warm,
* correlation of ERA40 to observation: (summer) (winter)
Precipitation:
* ERA40 is 20-25% to dry (winter better as summer),
* correlation of ERA40 to observation: 0.5 (summer) (winter)
* years 1972, are 40-50% too moist
Action 2.1. Compilation of common meteorological database for the CADSES region
HYDROCARE
, Bratislava

6. Conclusions Activities in action 2.1 started
and processed as scheduled.
At the beginning of 2007 all project partners
will have access to a gridded data set
of temperature and precipitation
Thank‘s for your attention
Action 2.1. Compilation of common meteorological database for the CADSES region
HYDROCARE
, Bratislava

7. Working Schedule Action 2.2
Action Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records
Working Schedule
Specific Task
2006
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Adaptation of statistical methodologies for data diagnosis
Compilation of a common data set for the CADSES regions
Analysis of data records for individual extreme indicators
Higher-order multivariate data analysis
Deliverables
Quantitative Indicators for climatic extremes, natural variability and trends
(gridded data set, technical reports, to be delivered 2007)
HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

8. Statistical Methodologies for Data Diagnosis
Action Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records
Statistical Methodologies for Data Diagnosis
Review of statistial methods for extremes
Screening of candidates for characterizing precip.
(high/low, transferability)
Application of the Standarized Precipitation Index to a German test region
HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

9. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) pilot study
Action Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) pilot study
Time series of the first principal component scores and the reconstructed time series by retaining the main periodic components for the Elbe basin (about 40% expl. variance due to periods between 4.8 and 6.9 years)
Loading patterns of the principal components of the Standardized Precipitation Index SPI on 24-month time scale in the Elbe basin
(all loadings: 80% explained variance)
HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

10. Working Schedule Action 2.3
Action Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling
Working Schedule
Specific Task
2006
2007 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Compilation of forcing data for a regio- nal climate model from analyses
Model evaluation using station observations and adaptation to the region
Reconstruction of past climatic condi- tions
Analysis of model results for extremes and their dynamics
Deliverables
Area-wide spatial homogeneous and high-resolution (~ 10 km) dynamic extreme indicators on a grid
(technical report, gridded data set, drought indicators, to be delivered starting in Dec. 2006)
HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

11. Compilation of Regional Climate Model Forcing Data
Action Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling
Compilation of Regional Climate Model Forcing Data
Development of a new, generalized preprocessing tool
Compilation of forcing data for a 10-year climate reconstruction test run (coarse grid, 0.44° lat/lon)
Compilation of forcing data for a 40-year reconstruction started (fine mesh, 0.165° lat/lon)
HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

12. Model Evaluation and Adaptation
Action Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling
Model Evaluation and Adaptation
Enhancement of a multi-run simulation environment (SimEnv) to perform optimization experiments
Evaluation of a 10-year climate reconstruction using reanalysis data
HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

13. Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling
CLM results
ERA15 analyses interp.
CLM results
ERA15 analyses interp.
Averaged Mean Seal Level Pressure [hPa]
Area Averaged Mean Seal Level Pressure
HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

14. Estimated (Application form) (Additional scientist
Incurred Expenses
Action –
Expenses per Action
Action 2.1
Action 2.2
Action 2.3
Budget lines
Incurred
Estimated (Application form)
BL1 Co-ordination
BL2 Personnel
5.748,91
10.224,17
(Additional scientist
2th HY 2006)
4.679,50
23.428,25
22.239,17
BL3 Meetings
BL4 Travel and accommodation
0,00
260,00
(changed)
53,90
(+465,00)
520,00
BL5 Promotion
(+160,00)
160.00
(+165,00)
160,00
(+325,00)
305,00
BL6 Ext. expertise and audit
(+300,00)
300,00
BL7 Others
BL8 Small scale investments
HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia

15. Thank You !
HYDROCARE 2nd Assembly of Partners 27th – 28th June, 2006, Bratislava, Slovakia