1. Industry information K Coetzee May 2017
Report presented at Milk SA members meeting 31 May 2017

2. Contents International economy International dairy situation
SA economic situation
SA dairy situation

3. Global economic growth and expected growth, 2010 – 2018*
Source: IMF WEO update April * Projection

4. FAO food price indices, Jan 10 – Apr 17
Source: FAO, 2017

5. Global cow milk production, 2007 - 2015
Source: IDF, October 2016

6. CNIEL , February 2015, May 2017; EU, Australia, Uruguay = 3 months
Milk production growth in major dairy exporting countries and South Africa, .
CNIEL , February 2015, May 2017; EU, Australia, Uruguay = 3 months

7. Per capita global dairy consumption and world population, 2005, 2008 - 2015
Source: IDF October 2016

8. GlobalDairytrade® Auction Sale price index Jan 99 – May 17
Source: gDt Index, 2017

9. International prices, Jan 10 – May 17 (US$/ton)
Source: USDA, May 2017

10. International prices, Jan 10 – May 17 (Rand/ton)
Source: USDA, May 17; Reserve Bank, 2017

11. Producer prices in selected countries, February 2017
Country
Feb-17
12 month
moving average
United States
39.77
35.26
Italy
38.77
36.91
Finland
35.10
34.63
Belgium
34.01
27.73
United Kingdom
33.59
26.99
New Zealand
33.53
30.34
Ireland
33.11
23.37
France
32.83
31.66
Germany
31.82
26.89
Denmark
31.33
25.03
Prices based on 4,2% fat; 3,4% protein. Prices in Euro/ 100 kg of milk USA Class III
Source: LTO, April 2017

12. European producer price trends
Source: LTO, April 2017;

13. International producer price indices* (Jan 12 – Feb 17)
Source: USA Hoards Dairyman; New Zealand LTO, Uruguay Inale; SA MPO;
Argentina, Brazil CLAL.
* Indices based on own currencies.

14. SA economic activity, Jan 10 – Mar 17
Source: SA Reserve Bank, May 2017

15. SA economic growth,
Source: Stats SA May 2017

16. Consumer price inflation Jan 07 – Apr 17
Source: Stats SA, May 2017

17. Interest rates, Jan 08 – Apr 17
Source: Stats SA, SA Reserve Bank, April 17

18. Household income and debt, 1982 – 2016
Source: SA Reserve Bank, Apr 2017

19. Retail sales growth at constant 2012 prices, Jan 08 – Feb 17
Source: Stats SA, May 2017

20. Monthly raw milk purchases, Jan 2014– Apr 2017
Milk supply ( 000 Ton)
2011 =
2012 =
2013 =
2014 =
2015 = 3 173
2016 =
Source: – Feb 2017 Milk SA returns;
Mar – Apr 17 , Milk SA estimates

21. Raw milk supply per day per month, Jan 2014 – Apr 17
Source: 2014, - Feb 2017 Milk SA returns;
Mar – Apr 17 , Milk SA estimates

22. Calculated Milk: maize + soybean price ratio, Jan 03 – May 17
Source: MPO calculations; “Feed price” = 70% YM1, 30% Soy, Safex nearest month prices, Producer price MPO survey

23. Change in quantity sold Change in retail prices
Percentage change in retail sales quantities for major dairy and other food products for the 12-month period from January 2016 to December 2016 compared to the period from January 2015 to December and the changes in prices from December 2015 to December 2016
Product
Change in quantity sold
Change in retail prices
Pre-packaged cheese
10.8
16.1
Maas
9.2
7.9
Flavoured milk*
5.5
12.3
Yoghurt
3.7
10.4
Cream
13.5
Bread
3.2
22.1
Short-life juice
1.1
Coffee
0.6
11.5
Instant cereal
-0.7
Margarine
13.4
Maize meal
-1.8
40.1
Rice
-2.0
12.0
Butter
-2.1
28.0
Long life milk*
1.0
23.4
Fresh milk
-3.9
19.7
Tea
-4.6
28.9
Cream cheese
-5.3
16.5
Source: SAMPRO based on Nielsen report

24. Changes in the quantities of retail sales of specific dairy products
Sales in the
month of
December 2016
versus the
sales in the
December 2015
3 months from October 2016 to
3 months from
October 2015 to
6 months from July 2016 to December 2016
6 months from
July 2015 to December 2015
9 months from
April 2016 to December 2016
April 2015 to December 2015
12 months from
January 2016 to
January 2015 to
percent
Fresh Milk
-4.4
-3.8
-4.0
-3.6
-3.9
UHT milk
-26.7
-15.4
-8.4
-3.1
1.0
Flavoured milk
-9.8
-3.3
0.9
5.5
Yoghurt
-7.4
-4.3
-0.5
1.2
3.7
Maas
1.7
0.4
4.2
6.3
9.2
Pre-packaged cheese
-2.2
7.8
9.5
10.9
10.8
Cream cheese
-9.7
-7.9
-8.0
-7.1
-5.3
Butter
-21.8
-6.8
-5.0
-2.1
Cream
5.7
2.5
1.6
2.3
Source: Nielsen supplied by SAMPRO

25. Changes in the average retail prices of specific dairy products
PRODUCT
December 2016 versus
November 2016
 (1 month ago)
September 2016
(3 months ago)
June 2016
(6 months ago)
March 2016
(9 months ago)
December
2015
(12 months ago)
June 2015
(18 months ago)
December 2014
 (24 months ago)
Percent
FRESH MILK
1.1
0.4
4.7
11.3
19.7
12.8
15.4
UHT MILK
-1.0
-0.5
12.3
23.4
6.0
8.3
FLAVOURED MILK
0.0
3.2
2.8
10.3
11.4
18.3
YOGHURT
-1.4
0.1
3.9
6.8
10.4
10.1
14.2
MAAS
-2.6
5.6
7.9
5.2
5.0
PRE-PACKAGED CHEESE
1.2
3.0
8.6
16.1
7.5
13.5
CREAM CHEESE
4.2
3.4
7.8
16.8
16.5
12.4
20.5
BUTTER
4.0
8.2
23.8
28.0
31.6
41.0
CREAM
6.2
15.7
16.0
13.6
Source: Nielsen supplied by SAMPRO

26. Change in quantity sold Change in retail prices
Percentage change in retail sales quantities for major dairy products for the 12-month period from April 2016 to March compared to the period from April to March and the changes in prices from March 2016 to March 2017
Product
Change in quantity sold
Change in retail prices
Fresh milk
-3.3
12.4
Long-life milk
-2.1
13.2
Flavoured milk*
-3.1
Yoghurt
-0.5
9.3
Maas
4.0
7.9
Pre-packaged cheese
10.6
9.2
Cream cheese
-8.4
17.8
Butter
-4.4
26.7
Cream
1.3
12.1
Source: SAMPRO based on Nielsen report

27. Producer, processor and retail price indices, Jan 12 – Apr 17
Source: Stats SA

28. Cumulative net imports of dairy products, Jan 2012 – Mar 2017
Source: SARS as supplied by SAMPRO

29. Annual production + net imports, 2004 - 2016
Source: Milk SA, SAMPRO
Note: Stock changes excluded
BLNS excluded

30. Thank you