1. Unit 3: Global Challenge and Change: Topic: World Population Trends

2. Year & Population… wowzers
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It had taken all of human history (well, we don’t know what the world was like pre-4000 years ago) until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in less than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987). During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.

3. Top Twenty most populated cities in the world:

4. How Fast is the World Population Growing Right Now?
Growing at a rate of around 1.10% per year.
Annual growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s, when it was a little above 2%.
Rate of increase almost halved since its peak of 2.19 percent, which was reached in 1963, to the current 1.15%.
The annual growth rate is currently declining
Projected to continue to decline in the coming years,
Pace of the future change is uncertain. Currently, estimated it will become less than 1% by 2020 and less than 0.5% by 2050.
Yet, world pop. will continue to grow in the 21st century, but at a slower rate compared to the recent past.
World population has doubled (100% increase) in 40 years from 1959 (3 billion) to 1999 (6 billion). It is now estimated that it will take a further 42 years to increase by another 50%, to become 9 billion by 2042.

5. Contemporary Picture
World pop. – at current rate – increases by 1 billion every 13 years!
80 million people each year
According to pop. stats. the world’s pop. may soon be correcting itself
Global avg number of children is 2.5 per family but dropping
Fertility rates tend to decrease when countries get richer and when women receive higher levels of education
People tend to have fewer children when they live in cities and more in country

6. Big Picture Population growing Rate decreasing
Women having fewer children (overall)
Population (generally) is aging
Trend is occurring in both developed and developing world

7. About those terms developed/developing…
“Developing” or “Countries in transition”
Former Soviet countries (Eastern Europe), “stan” countries in Central Asia, select South American and African nations
Lower living standard, undeveloped industrial base, and low Human Development Index (HDI)
a compound indicator of the above statistics, to gauge the level of human development for countries
income per capita (per person) (GDP), life expectancy, the rate of literacy/education, health care, etc.
Developing countries are in general countries which have not achieved a significant degree of industrialization relative to their populations, and which have, in most cases a medium to low standard of living.
FYI: There is a strong correlation between low income and high population growth.

8. Developed/Developing… undeveloped
A developed country is one that allows all its citizens to enjoy a free and healthy life in a safe environment. Kofi Annan
More objectively (and economically), countries with highest income per capita (GDP), level of industrialization, high HDI
In common practice, Japan, Canada, United States, Australia, New Zealand, and Western Europe, are considered "developed" regions or areas
There is no established convention, i.e., no universally agreed definition
And there is criticism that the terms imply superiority or inferiority based on a limited number of factors
“Undeveloped country,” (low HDI score) not a term often used, are at the bottom of stats… typically not a great place to live
DRC, Niger, Burundi, Haiti

9. World Map: HDI index   
  High
  Medium
  Low

10. Why is it that the poorest countries have the highest fertility rates?
Poverty increases the likelihood of having many children, trapping families and countries in a hard-to-stop cycle
Poverty cycle = poor families become impoverished for at least three generations, i.e. for enough time that the family includes no surviving ancestors who possess and can transmit the intellectual, social, and cultural capital necessary to stay out of or change their impoverished condition.

12. Fertility & Fecundity
Very important aspects of life for individuals and society
E.g., as family size decreases and fertility rates decline, it becomes more expensive for taxpayers to pay for social programs (health care, welfare, pensions, etc.)
Changes in fertility have a profound effect on our society
Increasing birth rate MAY result in overpopulation, increased likelihood of starvation, drain on resources, e.g., water & food supplies

13. Fertility & Fecundity cont…
Refers to actual reproduction.
A woman is fertile if she has born, or is bearing, offspring
Fecundity:
Denotes the ability to reproduce.
Once a girl reaches menarche (first menstrual cycle), she is fecund.

14. Fertility Rates Definition: The actual number of children had by women
Can be affected by physical and environmental factors as well as social and cultural factors

15. World Fertility Rate

16. Country Comparison
95% of all the world’s population growth today is in the “developing” world
Nearly half of their population is under the age of 15
Niger at 7.52, Uganda at 6.65
Japan at 1.39, Germany at 1.41, Australia at 1.77
Deaths may very well outnumber births
Of all the “developed” countries, only U.S. is at replacement level (2.1-ish # of births required to maintain stable population)… but barely
All developed countries growing from immigration alone

17. Why has there been such a change in fertility rates, particularly in developed/developing nations?
A lot of factors:
1 - Change of marriage (and divorce) rates
divorce rates have increased greatly since the introduction of Divorce Laws in 1968
43.1% of marriages expected to end in divorce before 50th W.A.
2 (minor reason… but interesting) - Increase in infertility: Infertile = when a couple have been trying to conceive for over one year unsuccessfully
Estimated 1/5 couples in Canada
Why?
Rapid spread of sexually transmitted diseases
Decline in sperm counts in men in developed countries
Half of what they were 60 years ago… say huh?
Perhaps due to high levels of estrogen in water supply
From where?... Oral contraceptives… you got it… The Pill
And from other chemicals, plastics that mimic the action of female sex hormone, raising the level of estrogen

18. Why cont… 3 – Contraceptives 4 – Education
Substantial increase in contraceptives since late 1960s
Initially in developed (West) and quickly in developing (Latin America, Asia and Africa)
Contraceptive technologies more readily available worldwide, more affordable, less stigmatized,
4 – Education
Education correlates with smaller families
Countries in which more children are enrolled in school—even at the primary level—tend to have strikingly lower fertility rates

19. From Earth-Policy.org
Female education is especially important. Research consistently shows that women who are empowered through education tend to have fewer children and have them later. If and when they do become mothers, they tend to be healthier and raise healthier children, who then also stay in school longer. They earn more money with which to support their families, and contribute more to their communities’ economic growth. Indeed, educating girls can transform whole communities

20. Why cont…
5 - Change of social expectations and values regarding family and home
Desire to have children, view of children as infringing on freedom
Couples in developed countries (married or not) have fewer children
Trend for women to delay motherhood, often to establish careers
Many women having babies in 30s rather than in their 20s
More than 1/3 of all babies born in Canada are from women in their 30s
Decrease in fertility rates because women’s fertility declines considerably as they age
Older you are less likely you become pregnant and less time to have multiple births
Biological clock ticking…