1. Safety Challenges for a South Texas Spaceport
Wayne Eleazer & Edward Ellegood
ERAU Space Traffic Management Conference
November 2014
Eddie - Brace yourselves, we’re going to try to burn through about a slide a minute.

2. Eddie - Wayne and I focused on the various challenges that SpaceX and other companies will face in trying to operate from a launch site proposed in South Texas.
The proposed Boca Chica spaceport is less than three miles north of the Mexico border, east of Brownsville.
As we note in our paper, the site selection was approved in May after an Environmental Impact Statement and a series of public meetings.
Boca Chica

3. EIS did not fully address several safety and operational risk factors
More analysis needed for FAA launch and site operator licenses
No “showstoppers” but several significant challenges lay ahead
Wayne – The Environmental Impact Statement found no problems that could not be mitigated.
But it was primarily an Environmental document and didn’t address several factors that will have to be considered in SpaceX’s application for an FAA launch site operators license and multiple FAA launch licenses.
But is it Feasible?

4. Flight Safety Analysis Approach
Od Way – Risk Avoidance
New Way – Risk Management
Wayne - Why is a South Texas Spaceport even theoretically possible now? And why was it not built before?
I tend to attribute this change to the different way in which flight safety analysis for space launches is done now.
At one time the approach was basically that of Risk Avoidance. For that reason our launch centers were located at places such as Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg AFB, and Wallops Island, where rockets could be launched and not fly over land for thousands of miles downrange.
Today we employ Risk Management to a much greater degree. The required data is gathered and studied. The data is then used in computer models to provide a quantitative estimate of just how much risk there is. The risk estimate can then be compared to national standards, such as the 30 in a million casualty number that is now used.
The old way would have been to just say NO to a South Texas Spaceport. But what will be required is not to ignore flight safety standards but to evaluate and apply them properly.
We were unable to fully apply the Risk Management approach in our study but we can make some observations based on it.
Flight Safety Analysis Approach

5. Minimizing Population overflight
Two corridors identified
~93 degree trajectory between Florida and Cuba
~112 degree trajectory between Cuba and Yucatan (requires dogleg turn)
93 degree trajectory assumed
Booster fly-back must also be considered
Wayne - Boca Chica has a very limited set of trajectory alternatives and is suitable only for equatorial orbits.
Shooting the gap between Florida and Cuba seems to be the best alternative, but a more southerly track between Cuba and the Yucatan is possible too…but this trajectory would require a ‘dogleg’ turn to avoid overflying Jamaica.
The red areas indicate drop zones for Falcon-9 booster stages and payload fairings, based on previous missions from Florida.
Minimizing Population overflight

6. Maritime and Aviation Traffic
Near-shore pleasure craft
Cargo and oil tankers
Cruise ships
Drilling platforms
Multiple air traffic routes
Eddie – The Gulf is a busy place, with drilling platforms, oil tankers, pleasure boaters, cruise ships, cargo ships, and multiple air traffic routes that could be impacted by SpaceX launches.
Dealing with these other multinational users could become difficult. Routing air traffic around Florida launches appears to be much easier, since the traffic corridor is closer to the coast and can be shifted to the west of the launch pad. Airlines hate to be rerouted and the FAA won’t be the only authority involved.
Maritime and Aviation Traffic

7. International Coordination
Launch hazard area encroaches Mexican territory
Mexican safety enforcement required?
Potential for debris impact on Cuban territory
Security risk from Mexican criminal activity nearby
Interference of foreign maritime, aviation, and oil exploration
Eddie – There have been at least two instances where U.S. launch vehicles have inadvertently landed in -- coincidentally -- Mexico and Cuba. A modified V-2 launched from White Sands went off course and landed just south of Juarez in 1947, and a Thor rocket launched from the Cape killed a cow in Cuba in Both were equipped with range safety flight-termination systems.
At Boca Chica, the range clearance area includes Mexican territory, and farther downrange, the trajectory is quite close to Cuba.
International Coordination

8. Independent Range Authority, Tracking and Telemetry
Ensuring public safety may require an independent authority to oversee each launch
How will launch vehicle performance be monitored?
How will flight termination requirements be handled?
Who will be responsible?
Wayne – A launch range is more than just technical assets. There must be Leadership, management and expertise. And for the flight safety function there needs to be a degree of independence. It is not clear who will provide this at Boca Chica. This fact, combined with the strict safety limits that must accompany any launches from Boca Chica, is the most significant issue we can identify.
A commercial launch company or its payload customer might hesitate to delay or terminate a launch that presents an unacceptable hazard. Will the FAA be the decision authority for this?
Independent Range Authority, Tracking and Telemetry

9. Conclusions None of the challenges are “show- stoppers”
Some are unique and will be very challenging
Together, they may cause SpaceX to have second thoughts about their Boca Chica plan
Wayne – Our paper goes into much more detail on these and other findings. The gist is that a Boca Chica spaceport is possible, but some of the safety challenges are unique and may make operations there more difficult than anticipated.
Conclusions

13. — NOMINAL ELEVATION TRAJECTORY — HIGH ELEVATION TRAJECTORY
LAUNCH
STAGE SEPARATION
FIRST STAGE SPLASHDOWN
— NOMINAL ELEVATION TRAJECTORY
— HIGH ELEVATION TRAJECTORY
Figure 4