1. Civic Education Workshop
Day 2:
Puzzles in Electoral Politics

2. Paradox of Voting Jane John Lyn Arab Delight (A) Burger Heaven (B)
First Choice
Arab Delight
(A)
Burger Heaven
(B)
Café China (C)
Second Choice
Arab Delight (A)
Third Choice

3. Paradox of Voting Assumes voters vote for their most preferred choice
It does not always happen, but it can
It is more likely when:
Preferences are diverse
The number of voters increases
The number of choices increases
Sometimes there is no clear majority
The rules of how we vote can determine which option wins

4. Practical Examples of the Paradox of Voting
Sports playoffs
Faculty hiring decisions
Our system of Primaries then general elections sets the voting agenda

5. Linking Presidential and Congressional Elections
The party of the president wins more seats in Congressional elections when Presidential approval is high and the economy is strong.

6. When to Measure
If you could measure Presidential Approval and the Health of the Economy in any ONE quarter only of an election year, measures taken during which quarter would best predict how well the President’s party does in a House election?
1st (Jan. – March)
2nd (April – June)
3rd (July – Sept.)
4th (Oct. – Dec.) (Election held in November)

7. The Answer is . . .
The First quarter (Jan. – March); which is 8-10 months before the election
Why?
That’s when candidates for the House must finalize whether they are running
The strategic behavior of candidates contributes to the pattern of House elections responding to Presidential Approval and the Health of the Economy

8. One more on Presidential Approval
Presidential Approval responds to:
The Economy
Wars
Scandals (at least sometimes)
Presidential approval influences both congressional elections (we just saw that) and subsequent Presidential Elections

9. Presidential Approval: the Case of Bush Sr.
George Bush was extremely popular in 1991 as a result of the Gulf War
Many top Democrats chose not to run for President for 1992 (esp. Nunn and Cuomo)
Instead, we get Clinton, Paul Tsongas, and other Democrats who are willing to run
But look . . .

10. Approval of Bush Percent that Approve Months of Term 1 59 29 89
Jan/Feb ‘91
Gulf War
Percent that Approve
Months of Term 1 59 29 89
Actual
Approval
Predicted
Approval

11. The moral of the story is . . .
The graph shows Bush’s actual approval ratings and what it “should” have been based only on the economy
Anyone who guessed the election would be about “The Economy Stupid” would have run (and won?)
Welcome President Clinton!