1. Social Infrastructure Planning
Project EASY
Availability of population estimates and projections
2001 Census
now
future -1 -2 -3
ONS
Borough
ONS
GLA
GLA
Ward
ONS
EASY
EASY
LSOA
Social Infrastructure Planning
Local Authorities & PCTs
Community Infrastructure Levy

2. How important is population estimation to you?
Project EASY
Question for discussion
How important is population estimation to you?
What is your view?

3. Project EASY Census Digitally available 1971 1981 1991 2001 .......
Changes in administrative boundaries
Changes in reporting geography
Changes in questions
Value not just in population count
Issues of accuracy and
consistency over time

4. Project EASY ONS small area population estimates
Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and LSOA
For LSOA estimates, data sets used are:
NHS patient register
Child benefit
Older persons dataset
Special populations:
Prisoners
UK armed forces
Foreign armed forces and dependents
Constrained to Local Authority MYE
The first three data sets are used to calculate
change ratios for quinary are groups and gender
which are then applied to the previous year’s
estimate.
Key assumption is that the relationship between
these data sets and the true population remains
the same for all years at small area geographies.

5. Project EASY GLA 2007 round demographic projections
Mid-year estimates at Local Authority and Ward
Change analysis based on ONS MYE
Future fertility rates and gender/age-specific survival rates based on ONS 2006 MYE
Main determinant of population distribution is the 2004 London Housing Capacity Study and DCLG 2004-based household projections
Inputs are:
Base population
Fertility
Mortality/survival
migration matrix
2001 migration flow age structures
, , gross inflows and net flows
Development data
2004 household representative rates

6. Project EASY Our criteria
In order to develop useful population estimates, we adopted the following criteria:
Locally accessed data sets
Up-to-the-moment estimates
Small geographical areas (LSOA)
Can be carried out locally by analysts
Good quality data
Model-based rather than counts-based
Key starting point: dwelling stock by Council Tax bands