1. A15: High School Graduate Trends
Peace Bransberger WICHE, Colorado

2. Fewer Grads in Total; More Non-White Grads

3. Fewer Grads in Total; More Non-White Grads
GRADUATES IN 2025
1992
2007
2025
2032
2013
Trends for Total number of graduates, in Grey, are:
 Peaked ~ 2010
 - 2.4% to + 3.0% per year to 2025
 Early 2030s -- back to 2008 levels
For White graduates, in Blue:
 Declines ongoing (since 2007)
 - 0.5% grads per year to 2025
 Early 2030s -- back to 1992 levels
Hispanics are where the increases come from, and it represents fundamental changes in the composition of the graduating classes.
Currently, the ratio of Hispanic:White grads is 1:3; 2025 and thereafter, about 1:2
Over the next 7 to 8 years, for every 1 fewer White grad, there will be 1 and then eventually 2 additional Hispanic grads
 + 22k / +3% grads per year to 2025
 80%+ of all additional grads
 Early 2030s -- back to 2020 levels
Black graduates continue to be a substantial portion, from 12 to 14 percent of the total, about the same or slightly fewer in number in each coming year.
But, they are now only about 2/3s of the number of Hispanic graduates, and are projected to be about half the number of Hispanic graduates from 2025 on.
Asian/Pacific Islander graduates increase in numbe in each coming year, from 184k to 241k
About 50 percent increase over the next 15 years
but there will be about 1 Asian graduate per every 3 to 4 Hispanic graduates.
American Indian graduates are about 1 percent.
Given the strong influence of non-White students, there are frequently questions about immigrants.
About 25% of children live in immigrant families—whether they themselves are US citizens or not.
And, as much as 10 percent of public school students might live in families that have some level of undocumented status.
As for DACA, of August 2016, California’s estimated 387,000 applications and 359,000 approvals. Texas, 220,000 applied, and nearly 200,000 of those have been approved.

4. Regional Variation Avg. Annual Change 2000- 2013 2013- 2025 South 2.6%
0.6%
West
2.1%
0.2%
Midwest
0.8%
-0.4%
Northeast
1.6%
-0.5%

5.  Fewer graduates  About the same  More graduates
Growth or Decline
 Fewer graduates  About the same  More graduates

6. (Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number)
South
Growth Regions
Additional grads from Texas and Florida account for ~80% of all additional U.S. grads by 2025
California may have seen its high year, or very near so
Whether growing or contracting, state trends largely driven by Hispanic grad trends
In California, 60k more Hispanic grads by 2025, then almost that many fewer by 2030s
West
(Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number)

7. (Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number)
Midwest
Regions in Decline
24 of the U.S. states do not have a new high projected
14 states have a small new increase between 2013 & 2025, but it doesn't exceed their prior high
10 states are in perpetual decline
16 of the states with little increase or none at all are in the Midwest and Northeast
Northeast
(Compared to states’ recent or new projected high number)

8. Compared to 2013 by State 2020 2030 Nation: -0.1% Nation: -4.0% 2025
See Knocking pages for Top 10 States & state annual change.

9. Total Graduates, 2013 to 2020 Midwest Northeast South West
Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2020.
 Fewer  About the same  More

10. Total Graduates, 2013 to 2025 Midwest Northeast South West
Proportional to % of region. Change from 2013 to 2025.
 Fewer  About the same  More

11. Racial/Ethnic Diversity
 White
 Hispanic
 Black
 Asian
 American Indian
 Private schools
Fewer White graduates bring down the total,
but there are additional graduates in virtually every state.

12. Fewer Grads in Total; More Non-White Grads
Graduate populations that increase in most states are
Hispanic Black Asian
White Private school
graduates are decreasing in most states
2025 compared to Percent Change in Total No. of HSGs

13. Increase for Most States in the South
 White
 Hispanic
 Black
 Asian
 Am. Ind.
 Private
Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.

14. Growth in Western States Mitigated by Slowdown from California
 White
 Hispanic
 Black
 Asian
 Am. Ind.
 Private
Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.

15. The Midwest: Strong Minority Graduate Increases But Steep Downturn of White Graduates
 Hispanic
 Black
 Asian
 Am. Ind.
 Private
Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.

16. Decreases for All Northeast States Except New York
 White
 Hispanic
 Black
 Asian
 Am. Ind.
 Private
Average annual change from 2013 to 2025.

17. Increase of First Generation Students
Children Ages 5 to 17 in 2015
Families with Children Ages 0 to 8 in 2012
Race/
Ethnicity
Total Millions
Parent with Assoc. or Higher
White
26.9
61%
Hispanic
12.1
25%
Asian
2.4
70%
Black
6.7
35%
Income
Total
Millions
Parent with Assoc. or Higher
All Families
11.9
47%
< 200% Fed. Poverty Level
7.9
21%
>= FPL
4.0
68%
Source: NCES 2015 Digest of Education Statistics, Table , from American Community Survey (ACS) data.
Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from 2012 ACS PUMS file.

18. More Students from Lesser Means
Income Distribution of Households With Children, U.S.,
More Students from Lesser Means
Asian 1.8M
White 20M
All Races
Medians
 HHs with children
-- All Households
Distribution (95% of families)
Each bar segment is 20% of the families
Black 4.3M
Hispanic 6.6M
American Community Survey PUMS Five-Year Estimates