1. Climate, Drought, and Agricultural Adaptations: Vulnerabilities and Responses to Water Stress Among Paddy Farmers in Sri Lanka
Just to give credit to the team; background – Victoria , one of the storage reservoirs for the Sri Lanka irrigation and hydropower system
Josh Bazuin, Amanda Carrico, James Fraser, Jonathan Gilligan, John Jacobi, George Hornberger, Lanka Thabrew, Heather Truelove

2. Collaborative Work with Colleagues in Sri Lanka
Again, just to give credit as we could not do the work without collaboration of Sri Lankan colleagues

3. Drought Adaptation?
How do psychological, social and institutional factors affect farmer adaptation decisions?
How do changing climate patterns, land use, and water allocation decisions affect water availability and rice yields?
How might future changes in the natural environment and social & institutional circumstances affect farmers' vulnerability?
The general research questions

4. ABM – scenario analyses
Natural science variables
Rainfall
Temperature
River flow
Reservoir storage
Forest cover
Land for cultivation
Social science variables
Risk appraisal
Coping appraisal
Social appraisal
Adaptive and behavioral responses
ABM – scenario analyses
Water Availability
Schematic to suggest the pieces and parts
Rice Production

5. A multi-level, multi-method approach differing communities analyzed
A natural quasi-experimental setting
differing communities analyzed
Drought analysis methods
Archival analysis and key interviews
characterize political decision making
Agent based modeling
integrate multiple streams of data
generate a set of possible scenarios
The approach

6. Drought and Rice Production in Sri Lanka
Two growing seasons
Maha (Sep – Mar)
Yala (May – Aug)
PDSI was calculated for each growing season in four rice producing districts
Trincomalee
Dry
Matale
Preliminary results (we got our first data about October 2011)
Intermediate
Wet

7. Drought and Rice Production in Sri Lanka
Correlation between PDSI and rice production was found in Trincomalee - Yala
Trincomalee is dry and at the end of the irrigation line
R = 0.51
P = 0.02
Just a correlation; much work remains to be done.

8. To be continued …….