1. AP Government
Public Opinion
To what extent do elections reflect the will of the people? How do we know?

2. Questions to Ponder
Why does public opinion matter? (Who cares about it?) How do polls try to measure it? What are some of the risks and benefits of polling? How do polls affect elections?

3. Public Opinion
Public opinion is the distribution of the population’s attitudes and beliefs held by a large number of people about politics and policy issues.

4. Why does public opinion change so fast?
We all have differing opinions. There is diversity throughout America. Communicating to the government “Significant number of Americans…”

5. census: “actual enumeration” of the population every ten years
Population changes affect public opinion as needs of states change.

6. Population is POWER because the bigger your state is in population, the more federal funds you can receive and the more representation you have in the House of Representatives.

7. Reapportionment
States gain or lose congressional representation as their population changes.

8. It’s worth repeating: Population is power, and power shifts as population does.
435 seats are reallocated to states after the census every ten years.

9. The US will soon become a “minority majority” society, where minority groups will outnumber the present white, Anglo-Saxon majority. Hispanics and Asians (1980s, 1990s) are creating the “minority majority.” By 2060 Asians, Hispanics, and African Americans will outnumber whites.
American Melting Pot

10. Ideologies change! Culture does not!
political culture: set of shared values and beliefs about the nation such as: liberty and freedom; the Constitution; Bill of Rights; political equality; private property rights
We all share the same political culture!
Ideologies change! Culture does not!

11. How do we know that Americans share these beliefs?
Opinion polls
Disagreements aren’t over values but interpretation or ordering of values (liberty vs. equality) and which value is held in higher esteem or importance.
Political ideologies
liberals: greater emphasis on equality
conservatives: greater emphasis on liberty

12. Ideology is a set of beliefs about life, culture, government, and society.
Most Americans determine their positions on an issue-by-issue basis, rather than by ideology.

13. The selection is usually random.
Public opinion is the answer an individual gives about a particular public matter.
The question can be asked verbally through on-the-street polls, telephone polls, and classroom polls, or written in the form of a questionnaire.
The selection is usually random.
Reasons for error:
People lying
Interview technique
Questionnaires
Sample selection

15. Public opinion affects voter turnout.
Public opinion deals with the political system in general, specific political leaders, specific groups, and people’s loyalty to groups, their distrust of the government, and specific policy issues.
Public opinion affects voter turnout.

16. Measuring Public Opinion
Political parties inform leaders about voter attitude and changing opinions on issues.
Interest groups contact officials about specific issues.
Mass media measure program ratings to gauge public interest.
Politicians use newspapers, magazines, editorials, and talk shows to keep track of public interest.
Individual letter writing indicates level of support.

17. scientific polling: usually measured using polls of approximately 1,000 citizens
universe: group of people to study, such as all Iowans or all women in the US
representative sample: small group of people typical of the universe; most commonly used
random sample: equal chance of being selected for the survey; used by survey researchers

18. Reasons for polls:
determination of political climate
candidate identification
voter priorities and expectations
issue identification

19. sampling error: how much the results may differ from the sample universe; level of confidence in the poll; more interviewed = more confidence

20. exit polls: surveys used by major media pollsters to predict electoral winners with speed and precision; most criticized type of poll

21. What Do Polls Reveal?
The average American has a lower level of political knowledge than citizens of other countries. Increased levels of education and availability of information have not raised public knowledge about politics.

22. Poll results are only a snapshot of public opinion.
MEASUREMENT PROBLEMS
Citizens without telephones, such as the poor or Deaf, are typically excluded from polls as are those who refuse to answer the interviewer’s questions.
The way a question is phrased can greatly influence people’s responses along with the appearance or tone of voice by the interviewer.
The urge to give “socially desirable responses” also impacts polling results. (You answer the way you think society wants you to.)
Polls conducted through telephone interviews and questionnaires are cheaper and more convenient than face-to-face interviews.
Poll results are only a snapshot of public opinion.

23. The biggest criticism of polling is that pollsters can get pretty much the results they want by altering the wording of the questions.

24. FRQ Practice: Located in Resource Packet
Older people in the “graying of America” are more active and more vocal about what policies they want from the government. Why? What do they have that your generation does not?

25. FRQ Practice
Political scientists have coined the phrase “the graying of America” to describe a specific shift in demographics.
Explain what this phrase refers to.
Describe three ways in which this phenomenon might have an impact on politics.

26. Rubric: FRQ “Graying” of the Electorate
It refers to the increasing number of senior citizens in the electorate.
“Explaining” means giving more: give examples or connect to the government.
This development has occurred because people are living longer as a result of medical technology. OR
The increasing number of this segment of population is having an effect in politics.

27. Rubric: FRQ “Graying” of the Electorate
b. Describe THREE ways. . .
“Describing” means giving more than just listing three ways. You must make yourself clear and give examples!
Setting a policy agenda: Now that seniors are the majority group, they have more power in setting policies such as Medicare to help them.
Public policy priorities shift: Issues that concern senior citizens such as health care, rights for people with disabilities, and SS are more likely to receive attention of politicians.

28. Senior citizens are very active and are the most informed and experienced group of people and, therefore, vote in much greater numbers than people of other age groups. This quality gives them more political power. The “graying of America” turns the focus away from other demographic groups’ concerns. Issues such as education, welfare support, etc., are ignored while politicians cater to the elderly. This shift threatens to upset the balance of policy making in favor of one specific group of Americans.