1. Human Population: Growth, Demography and Carrying Capacity
AP Environmental Science
LCHS
Dr. E 1

2. Population Pyramids Graphic device: bar graph
shows the age and gender composition of a region
horizontal axis: gender
male: left-hand female: right-hand
absolute number of people or %
vertical axis: age
5-year or 10-year age groups

3. Population Pyramid with young cohorts

4. Population Pyramids High Growth: Afghanistan
Population Pyramids on the Web
High Growth: Afghanistan
Moderate Growth: Mexico
Zero Growth: U.S.
Negative Growth: Austria or Italy

6. Population Pyramids Moderate Growth: Mexico
Population Pyramids on the Web
High Growth: Afghanistan
Moderate Growth: Mexico
Zero Growth: U.S.
Negative Growth: Austria or Italy

8. Population Pyramids Zero Growth: U.S. Population Pyramids on the Web
High Growth: Afghanistan
Moderate Growth: Mexico
Zero Growth: U.S.
Negative Growth: Austria or Italy

9. 9

10. Population Pyramids Negative Growth: Italy
Population Pyramids on the Web
High Growth: Afghanistan
Moderate Growth: Mexico
Zero Growth: U.S.
Negative Growth: Italy 10

11. 11

12. Demographic Transition
Movement of a nation from high population growth to low population as it develops economically
Transition as a result of four stages
Stage 1—Birth and death rates are both high
Stage 2—Death rates fall; birth rates remain high; growth rate rises
Stage 3—Birth rates fall as standard of living rises; growth rate falls
Stage 4—Growth rate continues to fall to zero or to a negative rate 12

13. The Demographic Transition
                                                                                                                                                                

14. Five Stages of the Demographic Transition
Used to be 4, now 5 stages
birth rates, death rates and growth rates systematically change through time as societies change:
modernize, urbanize
gain access to technology 14

15. Population Pyramids and Demographic Stages
characteristics shapes of ‘pyramids’
wide base (true pyramid)
wide middle (bulge), somewhat wider base
urn- or bottle-shaped
reversed pyramid
different shapes--different dynamics 15

16. Stage 1
high birth rates, high (at time erratic) death rates, low growth rates
stage for much of human history, traditional societies
practically no country today

17. 17

18. Stage 2 high birth rates, declining death rates, rising growth rates
improvements in
sanitation (water)
and medicine
in Europe during Industrial Revolution
in developing countries since the 50s/60s
much of Africa today, some countries of Asia (Afghanistan, Nepal, etc.) 18

19. Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base
stage 3: wide middle
stage 4: slender
stage 5: narrow base

20. Stage 3 continued decline of death rates, declining birth rates,
growth rates decline from
high to lower levels
change in behavior: adaptation to lower death rate, in particular infant mortality rate
economic change: urbanization (incentive to have fewer children)
Mexico today 20

21. Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base
stage 3: wide middle
stage 4: slender
stage 5: narrow base

22. Stage 4 & 5 Stage 4: low birth rates, low death rates, low
growth rates
United States today
Stage 5: low birth rates, rising death rates, declining growth rates (if birth rates drop below death rates: negative growth rates)
several countries of Europe today (Austria)

23. Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base
stage 3: wide middle
stage 4: slender
stage 5: narrow base 23

24. Population Pyramid and Demographic Transition
Stage 2: wide base
stage 3: wide middle
stage 4: slender
stage 5: narrow base 24

26. Demographic Trap “Trapped” in Stage 2 of Demographic Transition
High birth and low death rates result in explosive population growth
Downward spiral in standard of living 26

27. A country with an age distribution like that shown in the figure below, is most likely a country that
is experiencing rapid growth
is experiencing slow or no population growth
is experiencing a high death rate
has 40% of the population under age 15
is a less-developed country

28. As a country goes through the demographic transition, the greatest rate of population growth takes place during which phase?
The preindustrial
The pretransitional
The transitional
The industrial
The postindustrial

29. Which of the following is the best description of a population that has a stable age distribution?
A large population that is growing at a constant rate
A large population with a negative growth rate
A population that is in the early stages of logistic population growth
A growing population in which the proportions of individuals in the different age classes remain constant
A small population that has not yet achieved exponential growth

30. Tracking the baby-boom generation in the United States

31. Effects of Population Decline
As percentage of 60+ aged people increases, population begins decline
60+population increase --> severe economic and social problems because 60+ consume
more medical care
Social Security
costly public services
Labor shortages require automation & immigration

32. The Graying of Japan
Family-planning access, cramped housing, expensive land, late marriage, education cost --> voluntary decrease in birth rate
Low immigration rate
Health insurance and pension - 45% of national income; could -->low economy
Illegal immigration bolsters work force 32

34. 34

35. MI L I O NS 35

36. 36

37. Current World Population
Population ClockPopulation Clock Vital Events (per time unit)
Global population was 7,299,685,471
On January 18, 2016 at 2:57 pm
The global population grows by:
Nearly 2.3 persons per seconds
Nearly 8,343 persons per hour
Over 200,234 persons per day
Over 73 million persons per year

38. How Much is a Billion? 1,000 seconds = 16.7 minutes
1 million-s = 16,677 min = 11.6 days
1 billion-s = 11,574 days = 31.7 years
1,000 pennies = ~ 88 ounces = 5.5 pounds
1 million pennies = 5,500 pounds (~1-Suburban)
1 billion pennies = 2,750 tons (~2 Space Shuttles)

39. Human Population Dynamics
There are just three sources of change in population size —
fertility
mortality
"natural decrease" refers to population decline resulting from more deaths than births
migration
Net migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

40. Population Growth Intrinsic rate of growth depends upon
birth rates
death rates
immigration rates (into area)
emigration rates (exit area)
Pop = Pop0 + (b + i) - (d + e)
ZPG
(b + i) = (d + e) 40

41. One thousand one hundred and seventy deer are living on an island that is four hundred and thirty square kilometers in size. What is the population density of the deer per square kilometer?

42. A city with 23,340 people has 876 births
A city with 23,340 people has 876 births. What is the birth rate (as a percentage)?

43. A city with 23,340 people has 876 births
A city with 23,340 people has 876 births. What is the birth rate (per thousand)?

44. Rates of Global Pop. Change use: International Data Base http://www
Rates of Global Pop. Change use: International Data Base then Online Demographic Aggregation
CBR (crude birth rate) = # births / 1000 population
1990: 24 now: 20.6
CDR (crude death rate) = # deaths / 1000 population
1990: 9 now: 8.8
Growth Rate = (b + i) – (d + e)
1990: 1.5% now: 1.19%
growth rates have come down 44

47. Human Population Dynamics
Years
TFR
1950–1955
4.95
1955–1960
4.89
1960–1965
4.91
1965–1970
4.85
1970–1975
4.45
1975–1980
3.84
1980–1985
3.59
1985–1990
3.39
1990–1995
3.04
1995–2000
2.79
2000–2005
2.62
2005–2010
2.52
2010–2015
2.36
Human Population Dynamics
Total fertility rate (TFR)
The average number of children born to a woman
Average in developed countries = 1.5
Average in developing countries = 3.8
Worldwide 2.36
United States 2.06

48. Human Population Dynamics
Years
TFR
1950–1955
4.95
1955–1960
4.89
1960–1965
4.91
1965–1970
4.85
1970–1975
4.45
1975–1980
3.84
1980–1985
3.59
1985–1990
3.39
1990–1995
3.04
1995–2000
2.79
2000–2005
2.62
2005–2010
2.52
2010–2015
2.36
Human Population Dynamics
Total fertility rate (TFR)
The average number of children born to a woman
Average in developed countries = 1.5
Average in developing countries = 3.8
Worldwide 2.36
United States 2.06
Replacement fertility rate (RFR)
The number of children a couple must have to replace themselves
A RFR of 2.1 for developed countries with low infant and child mortality rates
Africa RFR = 2.5

50. Rule of 70
= # of years
% growth

51. Overall, the world population is growing at a rate of about 1
Overall, the world population is growing at a rate of about 1.7 per cent; if this rate continues, the population will double in 42 years.
Unabated, such a rate would lead to a point about 2000 years hence when the mass of humanity would weigh more, and be larger, than the Earth.
But, the growth rate is decreasing

52. Human Population Dynamics
Infant Mortality Rate
IMR
infant deaths per 1000 live births (infant < 1 yr)
1990: 62 now: 59 (normal in 1900: 200)

53. http://www. povertymap

54. Human Population Dynamics
Infant Mortality Rate
IMR
infant deaths per 1000 live births (infant < 1 yr)
1990: 62 now: 59 (normal in 1900: 200)

55. www.tte-online.com/.../table-of-contents/ chem-enc-1.html

56. Maternal Deaths per 100,000 Live Births
Source: WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA Maternal Mortality in 1995: Estimates Developed by WHO, UNICEF AND UNFPA, 2001.

57. Migration
Net migration is the number of immigrants minus emigrants

59. Influencing Population Size
Most countries restrict immigration
Canada, Australia, U.S. - most immigration
Involuntary immigration results from
armed conflict
environmental degradation
natural disaster --> environmental refugees
~1% of developing nations pop. Emigrates
Migration from rural to urban areas

60. What Is Family Planning?
Definition
Measures enabling parents to control number of children (if they so desire)
Goals of Family Planning
Not to limit births
For couples to have healthy children
For couples to be able to care for their children
For couples to have the number of children that they want

61. Family Planning: reduce births and abortions
59% contraceptive use in developed countries -46% overall, up from 10% in 60s

62. Rewards and Penalties to reduce births
What might work:
encourage, rather than coerce, people to have fewer children
reinforce existing customs and trends toward smaller families
don’t penalize for already existing larger family
increase poor family’s economic status

63. Empowering women to reduce births
Women tend to have fewer, and healthier children when:
they have access to education and paying jobs outside home
their society doesn’t suppress women’s rights
But women do most of the work
not shown in GDP because of lower pay
Women excluded from economic and political decision making 63

64. Case Studies - India
Family planning efforts began in 1952; fertility rate declined from 5.3 to 3.4 but population grow is still exponential -1.9%
Disappointing results due to:
poor planning
bureaucratic inefficiency
low status of women
extreme poverty
lack of administrative & financial support 64

65. Case Studies - China
Family planning efforts began in 1970; TFR fell from 5.7 to 1.8; infant mortality and illiteracy rates 1/3 to 1/2 of India’s rates
Population control program is extensive, intrusive and strict:
postpone childbearing
only one child/family -->benefits
effect b/c China is dictatorship; limited resources would have mean disaster 65

66. Cutting Global Population Growth
U. N.Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, 1994
8 goals to be met by 2015 (p. 276)
are these goals wishful thinking?
Replacement level fertility can be met in years as shown by Japan, Thailand…
Invest in family planning, reduce poverty, and elevate status of women 66

67. Short of thermonuclear war itself, rampant population growth is the gravest issue the world faces over the decades immediately ahead. If we do not act, the problem will be solved by famine, riots, insurrection and war.
Robert S. McNamara 67

68. percentage growth rate percentage population change
We can calculate ____ by subtracting the number of people leaving a population from the number entering it during a specified period of time.
growth rate
population change
percentage growth rate
percentage population change 68

69. If a city of population 10,000 experiences 100 births, 40 deaths, 10 immigrants, and 30 emigrants in the course of a year, what is its net annual percentage growth rate?
0.4%
0.8%
1.0%
4.0%
8.0% 69

70. A village of 33,473 people has 2,342 births and 573 deaths
A village of 33,473 people has 2,342 births and 573 deaths. What is the growth rate for this village? 70

71. A small country of 1,744,785 people has 44,678 immigrants and 12,567 emigrants. They also experience 15,898 deaths and 35,665 births. What is the growth rate of this small country? 71

72. A small country of 1,744,785 people has 44,678 immigrants and 12,567 emigrants. They also experience 15,898 deaths and 35,665 births. What is the growth rate of this small country?
How many years will it take for this country to double its population?

73. Recycling aluminum cans Using fuel-efficient vehicles
Which of the following practices would have the biggest impact on achieving global sustainability?
Recycling aluminum cans
Using fuel-efficient vehicles
Replanting deforested areas
Reducing human population size
Developing ecotourism venues 73

74. Which of the following is a true statement about the total fertility of a society?
is the difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate.
is the number of children necessary for a couple to replace themselves in the next generation.
is positively correlated with the average education of women.
is negatively correlated with the number of women of child-bearing age.
decreases as the society progresses through the demographic transition. 74

75. The current global human population is about 7
The current global human population is about 7.3 billion and is growing at an annual rate of 1.35 percent. If world population were to grow at this rate for the next year, approximately how many people would be added?
9.6 X 105
9.6 X 106
9.6 X 107
9.6 X 108
9.6 X 109 75