1. North Ayrshire December 2016
Skills Assessments
North Ayrshire
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for North Ayrshire
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Located in the southwest of Scotland, and bordered by the local authority areas of Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, East Ayrshire and South Ayrshire
Irvine is the largest town
Ayrshire is one of the most agriculturally fertile regions of Scotland
The local authority is a diverse mix of urban, rural and isolated towns and villages

9. Business Trends
Growth of the business base exceeded the Scottish rate (10.0% v. 7.3%) 2014 – 2015
285 new businesses including: Business Administration and Support Services (+60), Professional, Scientific and Technical (+50) and Construction (+25)
99% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
45 businesses employ more than 50 people, with 5 of these employing >250 people
231 businesses per 10,000 population compared to 313 nationally
11.7% self employment in North Ayrshire, same as the national figure (10.8%)
Number of Growth Sector businesses grew by 6% to 1,330 ( )
Proportionally fewer businesses (42% v. 46%) and employment (24% v. 28%) are in Growth Sectors compared to the national picture
High number of businesses in Sustainable Tourism sector, low proportion in Financial and Business Services
The Growth Sectors are: Food and Drink, Financial and Business Services, Life Sciences, Energy (including Renewables), Sustainable Tourism (Tourism related Industries) and Creative Industries (including Digital)

10. Population and Projections
Population of 136,130
2.5% of Scotland’s total population (2015)
Small decrease in population over the year (-0.3%), against a small rise nationally (+0.5%)
Between 2005 and 2015 North Ayrshire has experienced little population growth despite +5% growth nationally
In line with Scotland, there has been significant growth in the population aged 65+ (+23%), although there has been a steeper decline across other age groups than nationally, including a 10% fall in 0-15 year olds
Forecast Population Growth :
Total population forecast to fall by 9% (-12,100), set against a 9% rise nationally
The working age population forecast to fall by 26% (-22,000) compared to 4% nationally

11. Workforce Trends Total employment in North Ayrshire = 39,700
1.3% increase over the year, however below the Ayrshire region (2%), national (3.2%) and GB rate (2.7%)
Number in employment remains below pre-recession level
34% work in higher level occupations compared to 42% nationally (2015)
74% of employed population work in the private sector compared to 77% nationally
23% of employees work part-time, a fall from 27% the previous year and below the national average (26%)
5.6% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, slightly higher than the national rate (5.4%)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in North Ayrshire is 64%, a 6ppt fall from the previous year and well below the national rate (73%) (2015)
55% of employed residents work in North Ayrshire
17% work elsewhere in the Ayrshire region
A large proportion (28%) work outside the region
Key areas for out-communing are Glasgow City (12%) and Renfrewshire (8%)
The unemployment rate in North Ayrshire was above the national average (11% v. 6%), unemployment increased by approximately 5ppts whilst nationally it declined (-0.4ppts)
90% of year olds in North Ayrshire are participating, and 3% are not, broadly mirroring Scotland’s participation rates (2016)
Unemployment = ILO measure, i.e. those who are available for and actively seeking work
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population

13. Qualifications and Earnings
A lower proportion of working age adults in North Ayrshire (34%) hold SCQF Level 7-12 qualifications than in Scotland (43%) and the UK (37%) (2015)
North Ayrshire’s resident and workplace earnings average £488 and £480 respectively, and are both below the national average

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 7,594, 2.7% of Scotland total
92% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, in line with the national average
MA uptake decreased by 5% from 2014/15 to 845
3% of national total in 2015/16
Construction most popular MA framework group
17% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 99% male
73% achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Ayrshire College there were 17,160 enrolments
6% of Scotland’s total
82% FE and 18% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Care, Engineering, Sport & Leisure
Part-time: Special Programmes, Engineering, Care
61% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 2,600 students at the two HEIs in the region in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Subjects Allied to Medicine, Creative Arts and Design, Education
HE/FE data is available at Ayrshire regional level only, comprising East, North and South Ayrshire. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA
Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to decrease by 0.2% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, an equivalent rate of 0.2% growth is expected for Scotland as a whole. Such a fall equates to 700 less jobs in the area by Administrative and support activities and construction are expected to have growth of 200 and100 jobs respectively over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the manufacturing and public sectors. The number of jobs within manufacturing is expected to fall by 600 jobs over the forecast, whilst those within public administration and defence will fall by 300 jobs.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
North Ayrshire Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 18,600 openings within North Ayrshire over the forecast. Whilst a decline in expansion demand will lead to -700 fewer jobs openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in17,900 openings over the period. Openings will be greatest in elementary and professional occupations , with both driven by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in sales and customer services and caring, leisure and other service occupations is also expected to rise noticeably over the period.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. North Ayrshire: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The jobs recovery in North Ayrshire evident in 2013 and 2014 continued in The 500 new jobs, and increases of 1.3%, comes at a time of almost no jobs growth across Scotland as a whole. North Ayrshire had suffered significant job losses during and after the recession, but employment numbers are now just 100 short of 2009 levels.
There were also sector shifts in Job increases were greatest in health (+500), accommodation & food services (+300) and wholesale & retail (+200) and to a lesser extent in the transport, property and finance & insurance and arts & related sectors. At the same time, there was significant contraction in production jobs (500) and also in construction (-300) and professional, scientific & technical services (-100). There has been a further shift to public sector employment and not all the new jobs in the private sector are in higher value added services.
The business base continues to grow, and recently at rates above the Scotland average, although overall output is only just increasing and is well below pre-recession levels. North Ayrshire has the twin challenge of maintaining (and increasing) competitiveness in the important manufacturing sector with making the transition to a knowledge-based economy.
Glasgow

20. North Ayrshire: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population has not grown over the last 10 years at a time of growth for Scotland as a whole, and is forecast to fall by 9% to There is a predicted loss of 22,000 people of working age, a 26% decrease. Now almost one in three out-commutes from Ayrshire.
More are employed in elementary occupations, the skilled trades and as operatives than the Scotland average, given the manufacturing base. Despite a predicted fall in the number of jobs, replacement demand will create up to 19,000 openings, highest in elementary roles but also in professional, sales, care and administrative occupations.
A higher than average proportion from North Ayrshire go into Further Education from school.
The top MA frameworks by take-up reflect the local economy – construction, hospitality & tourism, retail & customer services, administration & related and health & social care (with sport), although fewer engineering & energy MAs.
Glasgow

21. North Ayrshire: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for North Ayrshire include:
Increasing the number of local jobs. Despite recent job growth, numbers remain below 2009 levels.
Increasing the quality of jobs. There are fewer higher value added business and professional services jobs - and the supply of skills should seek to help address this.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors and occupations, including manufacturing, health and sales & customer services. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, as well as care, administration and sales. Progression needs to be engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow