1. Effects of the Doubling of Carbon Dioxide

2. Effects of the Doubling of CO2
Doubling of CO2 projected by end of century, causing approximately a 5° F increase in average temperature (most rapid change in over 10,000 years)
~1.5 foot maximum sea level rise
More storms and fiercer ones as illustrated by Atlantic hurricanes in 2005 with 10° hotter Caribbean sea temperatures
Loss of coral reefs
Increase in tropical diseases since no winter coolness to kill insects
25% decline in species that cannot shift range
Warming expected to be greater over land
Hot areas expect greater evaporation from hotter winds causing drought
In the past, half of produced carbon has gone into storage as in the oceans.
Heating of the surface ocean layer could stop ocean mixing and absorption into lower layers, thus shutting off carbon absorption.

3. Global Warming Effects
Global Warming is an average measure
Local warming or climate fluctuations can be very significant
Arctic is 5° warmer
Ice cap is ½ the thickness of 30 years ago
Partly due to natural cycle, partly man caused global warming
Antarctic is 5° warmer
Ice shelves over the sea are melting and breaking off and may allow the 10,000 foot thick ice sheet over Antarctica to slide off the continent faster
This would cause a sea level rise
Rainfall is hard to predict. It could be increased or decreased.
Drought can partly be caused by increased evaporation at the higher temperature.

4. Global Warming Predictions for 2100 for business as usual
Global Warming Predictions for 2100 for business as usual. The average increase is 5°F. Since we don’t live over the oceans, warming will be larger.

5. Worldwide Glacial Melting, causing 2/3 of sea level rise of an inch a decade.

6. Global Warming effects in California
Summer temperatures rise by 4-8° F by 2100 for low emission scenario: 8-15° F for higher emissions.
Heat waves will be more common, more intense, and last longer.
Spring snowpack in the Sierra could decline by 70-90%, as winters will be warmer.
Agriculture, including wine and dairy, could be affected by water shortages and higher temperatures.
More forest fires.
Tree rings show that in eras of global warming, megadroughts of decades hit the southwest US.

7. CO2 Effects to Increase Over Centuries

8. Hasn’t yet
added in
Hurricane
Katrina in
2005

9. Permafrost melting by 2050 or 2080
Depending on high or low emissions model, most of permafrost in Canada, Alaska, and Russia melt by 2050 or 2080.

10. Worldwide increases in the average number of frost-free days by 2080

11. Sea level rise has been 2 mm/yr for 50 years, but 3 mm/yr for the last decade

12. Florida with a 1 meter sea level rise or storm surge

13. Nile and Sea Level Rise
At 0.5 m, 3.8 million population displaced (intermediate blue).
At 1 m, 6.1 million population displaced (light blue).
The protective 1-10 km sand belt is eroding due to the Aswan dam.

14. Similar 1 m sea level rise in China would displace 72 million people.
Ganges River delta and 1m sea level rise in Bangladesh. 13 million displaced and 16% of rice production lost.
Similar 1 m sea level rise in China would displace 72 million people.

15. Increase in Droughts (red) from 1948 to 2002
Increase in Droughts (red) from 1948 to The fraction of global land experiencing very dry conditions (-3) rose from about 10-15% in the early 1970s to about 30% by Almost half of that change is due to rising temperatures rather than decreases in rainfall or snowfall.

16. IPCC 2007 Summary Graphs

17. Historical Changes in Greenhouse Gases over 10,000 years
CO2
Methane
NO2

20. Blue shaded bands show the range from climate models using only the natural forcings due to solar activity and volcanoes. Red shaded bands show the range from climate models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings.

23. Global Surface Warming for This Century

24. Economic Climate Models, Roughly in Order of Temperature Increases, High to Low
A2 Growing population, regional inequities
A1 Peaking then declining population, world equity, high tech growth
A1FI Fossil fuel intensive
A1B Balance of sources
A1T Non-fossil fuel sources
B2 Increasing population, regional inequities, lower population growth than A2 and tech development than A1
B1 Peaking then declining population, world equity, non-material economy, clean solutions

25. U.S. Carbon emission sources