1. Analyse the impact of media on election results
(short term factor)

2. Three types of media = three points in the essay
Newspapers
Television
Internet/Social Media

3. Traditionally we have spoken about the print media
Newspapers have long claimed to have an impact on how we vote in elections. Newspapers are allowed to be biased (TV is not)
The Sun tends to successfully predict election winners, and always seems to back the winner it claims that this shows that it has influence over the electorate
Most newspapers support the Conservative party – although there have been changes over time- when Tony Blair led the Labour Party he managed to convince a lot of Newspaper owners to support him. Some say Rupert Murdoch (owner of the Sun) has too much power.

4. Newspaper Bias – most newspapers support the Conservatives
Labour
The Daily Mail
The Express
The Times
The Telegraph
Guardian
Mirror
Daily Record

5. Newspapers can influence the way we think about policies and leaders
Editorial bias – wording of articles – presentation of policies favourably or negatively
Pictures
Presentation of leaders – Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn
Tool of Conservative Party campaign manager – Lynton Crosby – Jockophobia, fear of the SNP

7. Rupert Murdoch
Political leaders have been desperate to gain support from Rupert Murdoch and his newspapers – this is a sign of the strength of newspapers.
There is evidence that parties have even changed policies in exchange for support from the Sun - Tony Blair was in favour of the UK joining the Euro, but couldn’t if he wanted to maintain the support of Rupert Murdoch.

8. However… Few people today buy newspapers
People are aware of the bias of the newspapers that they buy/read – they often read newspapers that agree with the ideologies that they support already – so newspapers are not changing people’s minds, they are just confirming what people already believe.
Newspapers are also linked to social class, and so newspapers are not necessarily in opposition to social class as a factor affecting voting behaviour – they work together.
Survey in 2015 by Panelbase: the research group said TV was "by far the most influential media source", outscoring newspapers and social media.
Of the papers, the Daily Mail came top followed by the Guardian and the Times.

9. TV
People tend to think that they can trust TV news more than newspapers – as they are aware that newspapers are biased. The BBC is publicly owned and the BBC Charter means that it has a responsibility to report news which is not biased towards/against political parties.
However, although they may succeed (arguably) in this, they are certainly biased in favour of the establishment and the maintenance of the status quo – so are pretty anti the SNP and UKIP.

10. TV debates
For the first time in 2010, the leaders of the 3 main parties took place in TV debates against each other in prime time evening TV spots.
So in 2010, Gordon Brown (PM), David Cameron and Nick Clegg debated against each other. In 2015 the TV debates were opened up to the leaders of the other parties too (except from Northern Ireland), so Nicola Sturgeon, Lianne Wood, Natalie Bennett, Nigel Farage joined David Cameron (PM), Nick Clegg (Deputy PM) and Ed Miliband on stage.

11. But did they affect voting?
In 2010, Nick Clegg did very well in the TV debates – this led to a phenomenon called “Cleggmania” where he suddenly became very popular. David Cameron and Gordon Brown were trying to get him onside in the debate “I agree with Nick”.
However, by the time of the election, although the Lib Dems got a few more votes, they did not get more seats.
On the other hand, they did then form a coalition with the Conservatives who could not win a majority in Parliament.
Gordon Brown performed worst – and the Labour Party vote collapsed.
David Cameron was judged to have done best overall across the 3 debates

12. 2015 debate
On 2 April, an average audience of seven million people watched the leaders of the seven biggest parties in England, Scotland and Wales take part in a leaders' debate on ITV.
More than a third of voters were influenced by the TV debates between the political leaders in the run-up to the election, a survey has found.
According to a Panelbase survey of 3,019 people, 38% were influenced by the debates, 23% by TV news coverage and 10% by party political broadcasts.

13. In 2015…
David Cameron did not want to take part in TV debates, as he was already winning – he had most to lose.
David Cameron demanded that the Greens be allowed to take part in the debate – this was a tactic to make sure that Ed Miliband would be attacked from the left.
In the seven-way debate David Cameron managed to stand apart from everyone else and not really get involved in the arguments – looking more Prime Ministerial.

14. Other leaders
Ed Miliband did not win, but did not do as badly as expected. Still Labour lost the election, and lost significant seats – including all but one seat in Scotland.
Nigel Farage’s performance in the leader debate did not win over any new supporters, especially when he talked about people with HIV coming here to take advantage of the NHS. However, he did shore up support from UKIPpers, and came out with a solid 13% of the vote – coming second in 118 constituencies. He did not win his own seat of Thanet South. Following the election he attempted to resign, but his party apparently wouldn’t accept his resignation

15. Nicola Sturgeon! Legend
She was not afraid to speak up and be heard on the stage. During the seven way debate it was clear that the men had underestimated the abilities and experience of Nicola Sturgeon. She has been in government for 8 years, longer than any of the other members of the panel – in minority and majority government. And before that has been in Shadow Cabinet in Scotland. She has faced Ministerial Questions and First Minister’s Questions. She was not a novice. She has firmly claimed leadership of the party.

16. However…
A YouGov poll carried out in 2015 shows that although people want to see the TV debates, only 39% think the debates will help make up their mind on how to vote. 48% believe they won’t.
Many people had already decided how to vote and the debates just reinforce that.

17. Social Media
The past few elections, the pundits have always said, this is the social media election – and although the use of the internet by political parties is certainly increasing, it is still clear that it falls behind the other media in terms of its ability to convince voters.
The Conservatives spent the most on Internet advertisements – they were spending £100,000 per month on Facebook promotions, and they were paying £3000 in marginal constituencies that they were trying to target (under their 40/40 plan)

20. Social media were most effectively used by the Greens and the SNP, who rely heavily on young voters for support.
It is so mush easier to circulate posters using the internet, and so the Greens and SNP benefited as they don’t have the same amounts of cash to spend on election billboards which can cost thousands of pounds.
The Conservatives were effective at using the internet to shore up the people who already supported them. They used gamification tactics to encourage their supporters to share more posts.

21. However…
The reach of social networks can be quite limiting, as there is a tendency of people to be friends with people who they already agree with politically, so they may be sharing political messages with people who were already going to vote that way. It doesn’t win round new people.
The Panelbase survey found people were least likely to be influenced by social media and magazines, with Facebook the leading influencer for just 7%, followed by Twitter at 4% and magazines at 2%.
So social media has not yet taken over from print news or TV.