1. HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa July 2002

2. Trends in the HIV/AIDS Epidemic

3. HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-2001
1991
20 – 39%
10 – 20%
5 – 10%
1 – 5%
0 – 1%
trend data unavailable
1996
2001
outside region

4. Number of people living with HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980-200130
Millions 25 20 15 10 5
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Source: UNAIDS, 2002

5. Number of people who died from HIV/AIDS
in sub-Saharan Africa,
2,500
Thousands
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Source: UNAIDS, 2002

6. Percentage of workforce lost to AIDS by 2005 and 2020 in selected African countries50
2005
2020 40 30 % 20 10
Nigeria
Togo
Botswana
Ethiopia
Cameroon
Zimbabwe
Cote d’Ivoire
Mozambique
South Africa
Guinea-Bissau
Central African Republic
United Rep. of Tanzania
Sources: ILO (2000) POPILO population and labour force projection; UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (1998) World Population Prospects: the 1998 Revision

7. Projected population structure with
and without the AIDS epidemic, Botswana, 2020 80
Projected population
structure in 2020 75
Males
Females 70 65
Deficits due to AIDS 60 55
Age in years 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
140
120
100 80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80
100
120
140
Population (thousands)
Source: US Census Bureau, World Population Profile 2000

8. Increase in mortality among men between
15 and 60, selected African countries, 80
estimated for 6 years before survey 70
estimated for year of survey 60 50
Probability of dying from all causes 40 30 20 10
Tanzania
1996
Malawi
1992
Zimbabwe
1994
Uganda
1995
Zambia
Source: Timaeus I, AIDS 1998, 12 (suppl): S15-S27

9. Estimated impact of AIDS on under-5 child
mortality rates, selected African countries, 2010
250
Deaths per 1,000 live births
200
Without AIDS
With AIDS
150
100 50
Botswana
Kenya
Malawi
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Source: US Census Bureau

10. Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Life expectancy (years)
with high HIV prevalence:
Zimbabwe
South Africa
Botswana
with low HIV prevalence:
Madagascar
Senegal
Mali
1950–
1955
1955-
1960
1960-
1965
1965-
1970
1970-
1975
1975-
1980
1980-
1985
1985-
1990
1990-
1995
1995-
2000
2000-
2005
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision.

11. Predicted loss in life expectancy
due to HIV/AIDS in children born in 2000
Predicted life expectancy
Loss in life expectancy due to HIV/AIDS
Botswana
Zimbabwe
South Africa
Kenya
Zambia
Côte d'Ivoire
Rwanda
Mozambique
Haiti
Cambodia 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

12. Leading causes of death in Africa, 2000
25.0
22.6
20.0
15.0
% of
Total
10.1
9.1
10.0
6.7
5.5
4.3
3.6
3.1
2.9
5.0
2.3
0.0
HIV/AIDS
Malaria
Perinatal
conditions
Tuber
culosis
Cerebro
vascular
disease
Lower
respiratory
infections
Diarrhoeal
disease
Measles
Ischaemic
Heart
disease
Maternal
conditions
Source: The World Health Report 2001, WHO

13. Reduction in production in a household with an AIDS death, Zimbabwe
Crops
Reduction in output •
Maize
Cotton
Vegetables
Groundnuts
Cattle owned
49%
37%
29%
47%
61% • • • •
Source: Stover & Bollinger, 1999

14. Estimated and projected deaths at ages 15-34, with and without AIDS in South Africa: 1980-2025
2,000
Without AIDS
1,600
With AIDS
1,200
Deaths (Thousands)
800
400
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision.

15. Reduction in size of primary- school-age population by 2010, in selected African countries
30.0
25.0
20.0
% reduction
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Kenya
Uganda
Source: World Bank, 2000

16. Reduction in life expectancy compared to the ‘no AIDS’ scenario in selected countries: 2000-2005
Botswana
Zimbabwe
Swaziland
South Africa
Kenya
Mozambique
Côte d'Ivoire
Cameroon
Burkina Faso
Haiti
Guyana
Bahamas
Cambodia
Dominican Rep.
Angola
Myanmar
Thailand 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Number of years
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2001) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision.

17. who do not know that a HIV-infected person
Percentage of girls
who do not know that a HIV-infected person
may look healthy,
100 90 80 70 60
Percentage who do not know 50 40 30 20 10
Chad
Niger
Nepal
Lesotho
Mali
Benin
Eritrea
Turkey
Togo
Kenya
Peru
Malawi
Haiti
Zambia
Uganda
Brazil
Madagascar
Bangladesh
Cambodia
Mozambique
Guatemala
Mongolia
Viet Nam
South Africa
Cape Verde
Cameroon
Tanzania
Côte d'Ivoire
Romania
Comoros
Zimbabwe
Papua New Guinea
Dominican Republic
Central African Republic
Sources: UNICEF, DHS surveys and other nationwide surveys,

18. Public expenditure on health as percentage of general government expenditure in African countries: 1998
18.0
15.0
Abuja Target = 15.0%
12.0
% Expenditure on health
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0
Guinea-Bissau*
Central African Republic*
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Djibouti
Equatorial Guinea
Sao Tome and Principe*
Burundi
Morocco
Cape Verde
Congo
Togo
Egypt
Sudan
Eritrea
Somalia
Nigeria
Botswana
Niger*
Cameroon*
Cote d'Ivoire
Benin*
Angola
Gabon
Tunisia
Mauritius
Sierra Leone*
Liberia
South Africa
Madagascar*
Kenya*
Seychelles
Swaziland
Mali*
Comoros
Ethiopia*
Mauritania*
Burkina Faso
Lesotho
Algeria
Ghana*
Uganda*
Mozambique*
* Heavily indebted, poor countries
Gambia
Namibia
Chad*
Zambia*
Guinea*
Senegal*
DR Congo*
Rwanda*
Malawi*
UR Tanzania
Zimbabwe
Source: WHO, World Health Report 2001