1. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Migration in Europe
OECD NERO Meeting
July 6, Paris
Ruud A. de Mooij
CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

2. Migration in Europe Immigration from outside EU (2/3)
labour market tightness
ageing
Labour mobility within the EU (1/3)
income/unemployment disparities
asymmetric shocks
EU enlargement

3. Does Europe need more immigrants?
UN report: constant ratio 65+ and age 15-64
--> NL in 2100: +580%
CPB report: constant fiscal burden
--> NL in 2100: +18%

4. Economic effects of immigration
Fiscal impact
Revenue
Expenditure
Labour market effects
Wage (-distribution)
Unemployment
Externalities

5. Critical factors for economic effects: the Dutch experience
Participation rate / follow-up
Dependency ratio
Skill level / average income
Age structure

6. Participation rate Dutch immigrants (NL = 100)

7. Follow-up migration

8. Dependency ratio Dutch immigrants

9. Net income of migrants (NL = 100)

10. Brain drain

11. Age structure of Dutch migrants

12. Conclusions on external migration
Prime motivation is ageing
Economic impact depends on:
Participation (-)
Dependency ratio (-)
Skill (-)
Age (+)

13. Labour mobility in the EU
Labour mobility and regional disparities
Responsiveness to wage and unemployment differentials
Why is labour mobility low?
Preferences
Policy distortions

14. Gross migration rates

15. Regional unemployment dispersion

16. Regional wage dispersion

17. Migration responses in the EU

18. Effect of u on migration rate

19. Effect of w on migration rate

20. Why is mobility low? Population vs labour migration Language Culture
Female participation
Institutions

21. Institutional barriers to mobility
Housing market (Oswald)
Social insurance (pensions)
Diplomas
Informational barriers
Regional aid