1. Equity, ESSA, and Secondary School Reform and Innovation
Robert Balfanz, Everyone graduates Center, School of Education, Johns Hopkins University
CSSOS Annual Policy Forum November 2016

2. This is like … CLIMBING A MOUNTAIN IN THE RAIN IT IS DIFFICULT WORK
UNDER CHALLENGING
CONDITIONS

3. To climb a mountain in the rain you need ...
HOPE
PURPOSE
KNOW HOW

4. HOPE

5. Real progress for NCLB, Common Core, and Race to Top Generation 2001-2016

6. High school graduation rates - big improvements after 35 years of stagnation
2000
Today
High school graduation rate
70%
83% an all-time high
Low-income & minority students
almost 40% dropped out
high school graduation was not the norm for low-income and minority students
most gains occurred among minority students
1.2 million more minority graduates
Low graduation rate high schools attended almost exclusively by low- income and minority students
2,000
produced half of all dropouts
1,000
1 million fewer students attending these high schools

7. College readiness and access-opportunity gaps are closing
As high school graduating classes have become larger, more diverse, and less advantaged -- college readiness rates have remained the same -- this means:
more students
more diverse students
more low income students are graduating college ready then ever before
And more of them are enrolling in Postsecondary institutions right after high school
Thus on the path to being first recent cohort of young adults to experience both rising educational attainments and opportunity gap closing

8. There is considerable variability by state
All states experienced progress
But rate of progress and areas of progress vary considerably
Places that worked the problem and stayed with it -- saw the biggest and widest gains
National economic or social changes did not lift all boats

9. PURPOSE

10. Despite progress - current education system is not working for about 1/3 of the students
About 17% of students are not graduating with their high school class - primarily, low income, minority, SWD and ELL
About 17% of students are graduating from high school but not immediately enrolling in post-secondary and by available metrics they are not ready to do so

11. Visualizing the challenge
To reach a 90% high school graduation rate by 2020
310,000 more graduates per year are needed
Bob
310,000 more students will need to graduate to reach our 90 percent goal – 3 Rose Bowl stadiums worth
To reach 90% with equity, and be the nation we want to be, we will need to see means of 90% for all students
THAT’S 3 ROSE BOWL STADIUMS

12. 90% on a level playing field requires
Four out of five to be Low-Income
One out of three to be African American
One out of three to be Latino
One out of Five to be English Language Learners
Two out of five to be Students with Disabilities

13. To close opportunity gaps between lower and upper income students
Need four more Rose Bowls of low income students who
graduate high school college ready with access to post-secondary
4 ROSE BOWL STADIUMS

14. Those still left behind are concentrated in neighborhoods and communities that are socially and economically isolated
Urban areas of high and/or multi-generational concentrated poverty-both inner city and inner ring suburbs
De-industrialized America- Northern, Midwestern, Southern, small cites and towns that served as satellites for industrial America
Rural areas across South, Southwest, and West and Native American Communities with high poverty rates

15. 1,000 High Schools with Graduation Rates of 67% or Less*
Where the work remains
1,000 High Schools with Graduation Rates of 67% or Less*
A third of the nation’s dropouts come from 1,000 high schools
Half the students experiencing extreme poverty are in just 68 districts
These low grad rate HS’s are disproportionally clustered in a small number of urban, suburban & rural districts
Half of off-track African American and Latino students are in 800 schools in just 70 districts
*Adjusted cohort graduation rates for 2014

16. The typical low graduation rate high school is very challenging
Characteristic
Average Outcome for Regular and Vocational HS’s with 300 or more students and Grad Rates of 67% or Less
Enrollment
916
Graduation Rate
57%
Chronic Absenteeism > 15 Days
19%
Suspensions 9%
Repeat 9th Grade
17%
Teacher Absenteeism >10 Days
24%
Percent Minority
72%
Percent Children Live in Poverty
29%

17. BUT AVERAGES HIDE THE DEPTH OF THE CHALLENGE IN SOME LOCALES

18. High poverty and high minority inner ring suburb- whole district is struggling
High School A B C
Total Enrollment
1,762
1,884
1,215
Graduation Rate
62%
67%
69%
Chronic Absenteeism % and Number
74% (1,311)
75% (1,425) ND
Suspension Rate % and Number
49% (870)
40% (758)
39% (479)
9th Grade Retention
34%
12%
28%
Percent Minority
99%
Percent Children Live in Poverty
32%

19. Single high school districts – with highly challenge HS
High School Characteristics
Medium City- Intense Poverty
Suburb-Large and All Minority
Rural-
Total Enrollment
1146
3525
511
Grad Rate
30%
63%
57%
Chronic Absenteeism
73%
24%
15%
Teacher Absenteeism >10 Days
80%
17%
39%
Suspended
50%
25% 9%
9th Grade Retention
11%
13%
Percent Minority
97%
95%
27%
Children Live in Poverty
47%
29%
31%

20. Characteristics of high school graduates not enrolling and not prepared for post-secondary
Very few students with A’s and B’s are not enrolling immediately in post-secondary
High school graduates with A and B averages, regardless of race/ethnicity, gender or income levels enroll in post-secondary
The high school graduates who are not immediately enrolling in post-secondary and do not appear ready to do so are low C and D average students -- these students are disproportionately low income, minority, and male. (The students for whom the current system is not working)
Percent of male high school graduates with C or D average -- 50%
Percent of female high school graduates with A or B average -- 63%

21. Poverty Complicates the Work in these Schools ONE OF THE BIGGEST WAYS POVERTY TAXES SCHOOL SUCCESS IS BY MAKING HARD FOR STUDENTS TO ATTEND EVERYDAY, FOCUS IN CLASS, AND COMPLETE THEIR ASSIGNMENTS

22. Many Low Grad Rate High Schools are in the 4% of Districts which account for 50% of chronically absent students
See Chronic Absence Story Map at

23. Many small, poor rural school districts have few students but face high rates of chronic absenteeism
See Chronic Absence Story Map at

24. THUS SCHOOL DISTRICTS WITH LOW GRADUATION RATE HIGH SCHOOLS OFTEN FACE A VERY DIFFERENT SET OF CHALLENGES THAN OTHER SCHOOL DISTRICTS.
IN THE United States WE HAVE ISLANDS OF CONCENTRATED POVERTY SURROUNDED BY SEAS OF BETTER OFF.

25. Midwestern districts by the percentage of children in concentrated (40%+) poverty neighborhoods
(Balfanz et al., 2015) 25

26. There is no inoculation again impacts of poverty
Academic proficiency is not protective of poverty
In large randomized study across 30 high poverty middle schools found that 1/3 of students who were academically proficient in math and English at the end of 5th grade, developed an early warning indicator in 6th grade -- they became chronically absent, got in trouble, or failed math or English
What is required are constant and adaptive supports

27. KNOW HOW

28. What we know about what works in high needs high poverty low graduation rate high schools
Get the analysis right -- not all low graduation rate high schools are the same
Some have locked capacity
Some are over-matched
Some are dysfunctional

29. What works continued …
Focus on reforms which influence the key drivers of student success:
Quality of Coursework-How students cognitively engage with their schoolwork
Quality of Relationships-What drives students to attend, focus, believe, and try
Equitable Access to Strong and Supported Pathways to Post-Secondary Success including Shaped Experiences (e.g. extra-curricular)-Where equity often falls short

30. Lessons learned from DIPLOMAS NOW – surround teachers and students with support
Instructional Supports
Double dose math & English
Extra help labs
Common college preparatory or high school readiness curricula
Organizational Supports
Inter-disciplinary and subject area common collaborative work time
Weekly Student Success data review meetings
On-site school transformation facilitator
Professional Development
Job-embedded coaching - Math and English instructional coaches
Professional learning community
Professional development linked to grade/subject specific instructional practice
Professional development linked to building a college and career readiness school/classroom culture
Data Supports
Easy access to student data on Early Warning Indicators
Formative assessment tied to national and state standards
Weekly data reports demonstrating students progress toward college and career readiness
Teacher Team (4 teachers)
75-90 students
Student Supports
Whole-school attendance, positive behavior, college-going culture
Strengthening student resiliency, social-emotional skills
Multi-tiered Systems of Support Intervention Model
Second shift of adults (Success Mentors) to provide targeted academic and socio-emotional supports
Case Managed Supports for high needs students
Interventions to address early warning indicators of
Attendance
Behavior
Course Performance

31. Using ESSA and Perkins
To meet the challenges the remain we need to combine evidence- based practice with innovation
In areas of economic and social isolation one of the greatest assets is the young people of the community -- need to use high school as an engine of economic development and social integration

32. Things to consider to help achieve equity with ESSA EVERYONE GRADUATES CENTER initiatives
National Center for Student Attendance and Success (MBK Success Mentor Initiative-addressing chronic absenteeism)
Next Generation Indicator and Response Systems -- extending early warning systems to college readiness and persistence
The Great American 21st Century High School Campaign (coming attraction)
For more info- and

33. THE WORK THAT REMAINS IS ESSENTIAL, HARD, AND DOABLE.

34. LETS GET TO WORK!