1. Teaching sustainability… how to get the message across?

2. 2100?
2014

3. On the Origin of Species (1859)
Darwin Phase II?
On the Origin of Species (1859)
Challenged the contemporary (religious based) understanding of the Human-Earth Relationship and the contemporary economic paradigm.
Today, most of us accept we belong to a species but that the combined activities of that species can influence how the Earth functions also challenges the contemprory understanding of the human-earth relationship (AND the contemporary economic paradigm)
Today, scientists are struggling with getting acceptance for the scientific evidence for climate change (similar to Darwin)
What we often don’t realize in our zealor to explain and communicate climate change is that the real message to society is much much larger:
That human societies not only have the capacity but they are changing the way the whole Earth works in ways that – ultimately – challenge the continued development and existence of human societies
And the evidence is both strong and convicincing!

4. No umbilical cord!!
”logik for dværghøns”?
MDG
Rio+20
There is a limit to the supply of critical resources and services necessary for the development of human societies!

5. Is Sustainability still possible?
Understanding ”Sustainability”…
Recent advances in Earth System understanding gives us the environmental definition (supply and demand)!
Brundtland Report (1987) recognised that sustainability is comprised of economic, environmental and social components –
But they gave no definition of the environmental and social

6. or accelerated sharply
The changing human
enterprise, from 1750
to 2000
Note the start of the
’Great Acceleration’
around 1950, when
many activities began
or accelerated sharply
Vand: Empire State Buildings hver dag! > 70% til landbrug!
Steffen et al. 2004
Steffen et al 2004

7. ”Business as usual is dead!” Lord Nicholas Stern, 2009
Responses of the
Earth System to the
accelerating
human enterprise.
Root cause =
demand for
resources
approaching
supply!
Typical economist to focus on business - definitely true this changes the game for business but it changes the game with respect to much more than business!
It also changes the game for science and the role of science.
Firstly, underscores that the contnued survival and development of human societies is absolutely dependent upon wise use of scientific knowledge (and I don’t just mean technological development!)
Secondly, it means we can use our science for society differently that we have done in the past – pig’s ear – proactively!
A first example:
Steffen et al 2004
”Business as usual is dead!” Lord Nicholas Stern, 2009
Steffen et al. 2004

8. The greatest challenge of the 21st Century:
Acknowledging that the planet’s resources are limited and the development of mechanisms to share these resources among 9 billion people!
Climate is only a proxy for a much larger challenge.… 8 8

9. Population is NOT the problem!
Global goal: ”2o” (1-2 t CO2 /person i 2050)
EU goal: 80-95% reduction in emissions by 2050 (in relation to 1990).
Population is NOT the problem!

10. What does that mean for Denmark?
1990 emission sources:
59% heat and electricity
16% transport
16% agriculture
7% open environment
2% NS oil and gas
In order to reach 80%, agriculture and transport HAVE to be addressed!!

11. Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene (Nature, 461 : 472 – 475, Sept )

12. The Resilience of the Earth System

13. Humanity’s 12,000 years of grace

14. Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles
Enhedens navn
Climate
Change
Ozone
depletion
Atmospheric Aerosol
Loading
Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles
Planetary
Boundaries
Ocean
acidification
Rate of Biodiversity
Loss
Global
Freshwater
Use
Land
System Change
Chemical
Pollution
Sted og dato

15. ? ? ? ? ? ? Climate Change Ozone depletion Phosphorus flow
Enhedens navn
Climate Change
Ozone depletion ?
Phosphorus flow
Latest
data
Atmospheric aerosol load ? ?
90-00 ?
Nitrogen flow
Ocean acidity
70-80 ?
50-60
Biodiversity loss
Freshwater consumption ?
Pre-
Ind.
Agricultural
land use
Chemical
pollution
Sted og dato

16. For the first time in human history, the demand for some essential natural resources and services is beginning to exceed supply
”Environment” can no longer be regarded as being distinct from societies (economic) interests (natural resources = currency)
Environmentally sustainable development can only be based on more efficient resource use and/or the development of alternatives for resources where supply cannot meet demand.
Sustainability Science Centre

17. ”Sustainability” anno 1987
economic
environment
environmental
social

18. Sustainability anno 2014 environment environmental social economic

19. PBs establish a new ”global spec” for world food production
Stay within 350 ppm, an agricultural system that goes from being a source to a global sink
Essentially a green revolution on current cropland (expansion from 12 % to 15 %)
Keep global consumptive use of blue water < 4000 km3/yr, we are at 2,600 km3/yr today and rushing fast towards 4000 km3/yr
Reduce to 25 % of current N extraction from atmosphere
Not increase P inflow to oceans
Reduce loss of biodiversity to < 10 E/MSY from current E/MSY

20. Putting it all in perspective:
The Earth was formed about 4.7 billion years ago
Our species in its present form has been on Earth for about 250,000 years…
About 10,000 generations…
Most generations lived in caves… 20 20

21. Over the past two generations, we have realised that the Earth functions as a SYSTEM
And there are surprising interactions between humans and ALL components of the Earth System
We are the fourth generation since the burden of transporting goods and people shifted from animal power to mechanical power.
We are only the second generation to enjoy automotive personal mobility. 21 21

22. Not for the sake of the ”climate” or ”nature” but for our own!
That knowledge gives both the POWER and the RESPONSIBITY to change and to manage the Human-Earth Relationship
But it is our generation that is the first … to have the sheer scale of numbers and intensity of economic activity … that our presence on this planet is starting to have a significant impact on the planet's total ecosystems.
We are the first generation to have the intelligence and imagination to understand the collective impact.
We are the first generation to have the opportunity to start to redefine our relationship with the planet, … to move it from consumption and exploitation …towards sustainability.
Not for the sake of the ”climate” or ”nature” but for our own! 22 22