1. Gauging Inflation: a financial markets approach
Measuring Inflation Accurately and Effectively
Inflation, Monetary Policy, and the Public   Joseph Haubrich
30 May 2014
The views expressed herein are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

2. Why look at financial markets?
Aggregate information
Money where mouth is
Frequent data
Caution: Comparability
CPI vs PCE
CPI-U vs CPI-W
Man in street?

3. Ten Year Breakeven Rate from TIPS
Percent
done
Source: Haver Analytics

4. Inflation: Ten Year Swaps and Ten Year SPF Forecast
Percent
Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters/Haver analytics

5. Cleveland Model: Ten-Year Expected Inflation
Percent
Expected Inflation
Inflation Risk Premium
Done 6/18
Source: Haubrich, Pennacchi, Ritchken (2012)

6. Cle Model: Ten-Year Expected Inflation
Percent
Expected Inflation
Inflation Risk Premium
Done 6/18
Source: Haubrich, Pennacchi, Ritchken (2012)

7. Expected Inflation Yield Curve
Percent
May 2014
April 2014
May 2013
Horizon (years)
Source: Haubrich, Pennacchi, Ritchken (2012)

8. 3-Year, 2-Year-Forward Inflation Rate
Percent
Source: Haubrich, Pennacchi, Ritchken (2012)

9. Gauging Inflation: a financial markets approach
Measuring Inflation Accurately and Effectively
Inflation, Monetary Policy, and the Public   Joseph Haubrich
30 May 2014

10. Term Structure of Expected Inflation
Source: Haubrich, Pennacchi, Ritchken (2012)