1. Improvement Selection:
IENG 451 / 452
IENG Lecture 12
Improvement Selection:
Developing Criteria, Pair-wise Ranking, FMEA
7/29/2018
IENG 451 Operational Strategies
(c) D.H. Jensen

2. Improvement: Selection Criteria
At some point in every project, the set of potential improvement solutions must be narrowed. Criteria must be developed to do this:
CTQs must be addressed
The “triple constraint” that must be considered in every project forms additional criteria that must be considered:
Time
Budget
Functionality (objectives of the project)
Other criteria should be addressed, too, before beginning the down-select process:
Safety Requirements
Regulatory Requirements
Strategic Alignment of the Project
Ethics of the Project
Politics of the Project
… and more!
7/29/2018
IENG 451 Operational Strategies

3. IENG 451 Operational Strategies
Developing Criteria
Some questions to help determine selection criteria:
What will the best solution(s) look like?
What are the barriers to implementation?
What types of solutions are the cheapest to implement?
Which types of solutions will be the most dramatic or visible?
Which types of solutions will show fastest results?
Which types of solutions will deliver the greatest return for the investment?
Which types of solutions will be easiest to implement ? (least resistance)
7/29/2018
IENG 451 Operational Strategies

4. IENG 451 Operational Strategies
Down-Select Process
(Down-selecting the criteria may be necessary, too) The goal is to come up with a tractable solution selection process. Steps:
Remove non-starters from the list – consider:
Organizational fit
Management commitment
Organizational values and strategic factors
Operating / management systems
Determine Goal Impact for remaining solutions
Standalone Solutions – must be completely independent of other solutions
Coupled Solutions – can attain desired performance working with other solns
Additive Solutions – improve overall performance on top of other solutions
Narrow the list
Multi-voting
CDAM (Combine, Delete, Add, Modify)
Create a Selection (Decision) Matrix, Pair-Wise Ranking or FMEA and evaluate alternatives
7/29/2018
IENG 451 Operational Strategies

5. Decision (Solution Selection) Matrix
Decision Matrix is used to prioritize semi-quantitatively. Steps:
Identify the items to be compared:
List on the left side in the matrix
Review criteria for comparison
Estimate the relative Weights of the criteria with the entire group
Create criteria and weights for comparison
List the Criteria on the top of each column on the matrix
List the Weights below each criterion in the matrix
Score each option on every criterion
Use team opinion to score each solution
Record the result in each cell
Compute the Weighted Total for each option
Weighted Total = Sum of the Weight * Score on all criteria
Interpret results after all comparisons are complete
Higher weighted totals are preferred options
Beware of weighted totals that are very close, though (resolution problem!)
7/29/2018
IENG 451 Operational Strategies

6. Decision Matrix Example
Available from the Materials Page:
Decision Matrix
Process:
Process Impact
Time Impact
Cost / Benefit
Criterion A
Criterion B
Criterion C
Weighted Total
Weight  5 3  4  2  1 
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
Option 4
7/29/2018
IENG 451 Operational Strategies

7. IENG 451 Operational Strategies
Pairwise Ranking
Pair-wise Ranking is used to prioritize qualitatively. Steps:
Identify the items to be compared:
List on a white board for everyone to see
Label the options (letters or numbers) for identification in the matrix
Create a square matrix for comparison
Label both the rows and columns with the identifiers for each option
Block out the diagonal and the lower triangular portion of the matrix
Review criteria for comparison
… for clarity of the entire group
Compare each option with every other option
Use voting to select the better solution in head-to-head comparison
Use only the top triangular portion to avoid duplication of comparisons
Record the results in the cell
List the winner and the winning vote tally
Interpret results after all comparisons are complete
Listing the winning vote tallies often emphasizes the strong differences
Higher winning vote tallies prioritize the options (highest to lowest)
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IENG 451 Operational Strategies

8. Pairwise Ranking Example
Comparing A to B: B wins 4 to 2
Comparing A to C: A wins 4 to 2
Comparing A to D: D wins 5 to 1
Comparing B to C: B wins 6 to 0
Comparing B to D: B wins 5 to 1
Comparing C to D: C wins 6 to 0
(Sometimes have consistency problems! A beats C, and D beats A, but C beats D?)
Overall: B-15, C-6, D-5, A-4
So prefer B greatly
then prefer C ...
AHP (similar process)
estimates consistency
issue severity A B C D
B 4
A 4
D 5
B 6
B 5
C 6
7/29/2018
IENG 451 Operational Strategies

9. IENG 451 Operational Strategies
FMEA
An acronym for Failure Modes and Effects Analysis.
The purpose of an FMEA is to provide a structured method to:
Identify the ways in which the system can fail
Estimate the risk of specific failure mechanisms
Prioritize the actions necessary to reduce or eliminate the risks
Generate a plan for validating the choice of Improvement Stage solution(s)
FMEA may be used in other stages of the project. Examples:
To understand the risks of the project in the Define Stage
To prioritize KPIVs for the Measurement Stage
To understand the solution implementation risks in the Analyze Stage
To assess the effectiveness of the plan for the Control Stage.
7/29/2018
IENG 451 Operational Strategies

10. IENG 451 Operational Strategies
FMEA Process Steps
Review the process, service, or product to identify the steps, stages or components
Brainstorm the possible failure modes for each step/stage
Identify the potential effects for each failure mode
Assign severity ratings and likelihood of each occurrence
Severity is rated 1 – 10, a rating of 10 is the most severe
Likelihood is rated 1 – 10, with a 10 being the most likely to occur
List current monitoring /controls for each failure, estimate a detectability rating
Detectability is rated 1 – 10, a rating of 10 being the least likely to be detected in current controls
Calculate the Risk Priority Number (RPN) for each failure
RPN = Severity x Likelihood x Detectability
Prioritize the failure modes using the RPNs
Sort high to low (Pareto Order)
Plan to reduce or eliminate risk associated with high priority failure modes
Identify potential / root causes
Develop Preventative Action Plans to reduce or eliminate root causes before occurrence
Develop Contingent Action Plans to limit damage caused after occurrence
Implement plans and document
Re-compute RPNs and assess for implementation readiness
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IENG 451 Operational Strategies

11. FMEA Example Spreadsheet
Available from the Materials Page:
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Process:
Prepared by:
Process Step
Potential Failure Mode
Potential Failure Effect
Severity (1 - 10)
Potential Cause
Probability of Occurrence (1 - 10)
Current Controls
Detectability (10 - 1)
RPN
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IENG 451 Operational Strategies

12. IENG 451 Operational Strategies
Questions & Issues
Exam Review is next class
On-Campus exam is next Thursday at LAB (providing a 2 hour exam period!)
Distance / On-line exam instructions were covered earlier in term (see Lecture 01)
instructor for ADA accommodations
7/29/2018
IENG 451 Operational Strategies
(c) D.H. Jensen