1. BACKGROUND FOR THE 2011 HURRICANE SEASON
JUNE 1 -- DECEMBER 31, 2011
Supercourse lectures on Hurricanes
HURRICANE EARL
Hurricanes    Part I  (in Spanish) Part II  (in Spanish)   Part III   (in Spanish)
Hurricane Rita 
Hurricane     (In Spanish)      (In Chinese)  
Attribution of Recent Increases in Atlantic Hurricane Activity 
“BAD” HURRICANES:
TO EVACUATE OR NOT TO EVACUATE FOR HURRICANES. Part I    Part II
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

2. SEVERE WINDSTORMS: HURRICANES
In the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Eastern Pacific areas cyclonic tropical storms with well-formed central “eyes” and with wind speeds above 74 mph are referred to as HURRICANES.

4. THE NAMES FOR 2011’S HURRICANES
THE NAMES WILL BE THE SAME AS IN 2005, EXCEPT 5 (E.G, DENNIS, KATRINA, RITA, STAN, and WILMA) THAT WERE RETIRED

5. NAMES:ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2011
ARIENE
BRET
CINDY
EMILY
FRANKLIN
GERT

6. NAMES: ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2011
HARVEY
IRENE
JOSE
KATIA
LEE
MARIA

7. NAMES: ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2011
NATE
OPHELIA
PHILIPPE
RINA
SEAN
TAMMY
VINCE
WHITNEY

8. DEVELOPING A REALISTIC DISASTER SCENARIO FOR A COMMUNITY FACING SEVERE WINDSTORMS

9. SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION
SEVERE WINDSTORMS
INVENTORY
VULNERABILITY
LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENT
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
PREVENTION/MITIGATION
PREPAREDNESS
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
EDUCATIONAL SURGES
POLICY OPTIONS
Wind profile
Storm Hazards:
Wind pressure
Surge
Rain
Flood
Waves
Salt water
Missiles
Tornadoes
Gradient Wind
Ocean
COMMUNITY

10. A POLICY FRAMEWORK RISK ASSESSMENT POLICY ASSESSMENT EXPECTED LOSS
VULNERABILITY
EXPOSURE
EVENT
POLICY ASSESSMENT
COST
BENEFIT
CONSEQUENCES
SEVERE WIND-STORMS
EXPECTED LOSS
POLICY ADOPTION

11. THE KEYS: 1) KNOW YOUR REGION’S METEOROLOGICAL HISTORY, 2) KNOW YOUR COMMUNITY

12. 1325 HURRICANE PATHS:
EACH HURRICANE HAS PREDICTABLE PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT CAN BE USED TO DEVELOP DISASTER SCENARIOS WITHIN A REALISTIC POLICY FRAMEWORK.

13. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS
Very low pressure in the “eye” (increases the height of storm surge and likelihood that wind will lift roofs off buildings and pop out windows after landfall)

14. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS
Low vertical wind shear along the path of the storm (maintains storm’s cohesiveness and rotation)

15. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS
A long path passing through warm water and a slow rate of travel (increases the likelihood that the storm will grow in strength and become a RAINMAKER after landfall)

16. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS
Wind field and rain bands extending 500 km or more from the “eye” (increases area of potential wind damage, flooding, landslides, and need for evacuation).

17. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS
Landfall in rain-saturated areas having steep slopes (increases likelihood of landslides (e.g., mudflows))

18. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS
Landfall in populated areas that are unprepared:
increases the likelihood of inadequate warning, inadequate evacuation, inadequate wind engineering (e.g., roof systems, “safe rooms”), inadequate safe havens, and inadequate INSURANCE.

19. An element’s vulnerability (fragility) is the result of a community’s actions or nature’s actions that change the destructiveness of the storm