1. World Population - Trends & Numbers
What are the trends in the world’s population as well as regionally?
What issues do you think various regions face given their population trends?
Know basic population numbers for the world and top 5 countries

3. World Population Growth Through History
Billions 12 11
2100 10 9
Modern
Age 8
Old
Stone
Bronze
Iron
Middle 7
Age
New Stone Age
Age
Age
Ages 6
2000
Future 5 4
1975 3
1950 2
1900 1
Black Death —
The Plague
1800
1+ million
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
A.D.
years
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C.
B.C. 1
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

8. Projected Population Change, by Country
Percent Population Change,
Women worldwide are having fewer children in their lifetimes, from an average of five children born per woman in the 1950s to below three in 2000.
All of the most recent projections put forth by the UN assume that levels of childbearing will continue to decline in the next century.
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

9. In mid-2008, world population stood at 6. 7 billion, up from 6
In mid-2008, world population stood at 6.7 billion, up from 6.0 billion in The next milestone, 7 billion, will be
met in 2011.
During the 20th century, nearly 90 percent of
population growth took place in countries classified
as less developed (LDCs) by the United Nations—
all countries in Africa, Asia (except Japan), Latin
America and the Caribbean, and Oceania (except
Australia and New Zealand).
This remarkable development resulted from an unprecedented
decline in death rates in LDCs brought about by the spread of public health measures, health care, and disease prevention, particularly after the end of World War II in These improvements evolved over centuries in the more developed coun- tries (MDCs), but the LDCs were able to benefit
from them virtually overnight.

10. TFR

11. Components of Growth During 2008, about 139 million babies will have
been born worldwide and 57 million people will
likely die, so that global population will increase by
82 million.
Overall, women would average about
2.6 children at the pace of childbearing in 2008, but that figure varies substantially from region to region and country to country. In MDCs, women average 1.6 children, a number insufficient to fore- stall eventual population decline.
Some European countries and Japan are already experiencing more deaths annually than births. In the LDCs, excluding the large statistical effect of China, women average 3.2 children, twice that of the wealthier countries. In the 50 UN-defined least developed countries, the number is even higher—4.7 children per woman.

12. Important Population Tends
Between 2009 and 2050, virtually all population growth will take place in the LDCs.
The small amount of population growth projected for MDCs will be largely accounted for by the United States and Canada.

13. Growth in MDCs
In many MDCs, most growth will likely be due to immigration from LDCs.
In the United States, however, natural increase (births minus deaths) still accounts for more than 50 percent of annual population growth.
While the LDCs are projected to increase from 5.6 billion in 2009 to 8.1 billion in 2050, the MDCs are projected to grow from 1.2 billion to just 1.3 billion.

14. Africa
Africa is the region with both the highest birth rates and the largest percentage of population growth projected for The continent’s current population of nearly 1 billion is projected to double in size by 2050.
Even after declines, Africa’s birth rates remain quite high and its population is very young, with 43 percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s population below the age of 15.

16. Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide
Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population
Natural Increase
Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. And women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s.
Nevertheless, if death rates are lower than birth rates, populations will still grow.
Also, it is possible for absolute numbers of births to increase even when birth rates decline.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

17. Calculating Population Changes
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) = # of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the population
Crude Death Rate (CDR) = # of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the population
Rate of Natural Increase (NIR) = the % that a population grows in a year
NIR is calculated by subtracting CBR - CDR, after first converting the measures to %.
If a country has a CBR of 15 and a CDR of 10, the NIR is .5%
NIR does NOT include migration!

18. A small % can mean a lot . . . Of people
Country ‘A’ has a population of 1 billion (1,000,000,000).
Calculate the number of people added to the population with a 1.0 NIR
Calculate the number of people added to the population with a 1.1 NIR
List the issues that this country might face with the number of people being added to the population each year

19. Looking at the graph below, what can be said about the correlation between education and fertility rates (TFR)?

20. Population in Countries With Low Fertility
Decline or Growth,
Percent
Country (average number of children per woman - TFR or Total Fertility Rate = the average # of children a women will have in her life in a particular country.
Thailand (1.7)
China (1.6)
Armenia (1.3)
Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)
All countries shown here have below “replacement level” childbearing —the level required for population to ultimately stop growing or declining. Yet, half will continue to grow and half are projected to decline by 2050.
This disparity is due to the effects of population momentum. In populations with a young age structure, even if fertility declines sharply, the numbers of children will continue to increase for a generation as the cohorts of young people pass through their reproductive years. Consequently, populations will continue to grow for decades even if fertility is instantly reduced to replacement level. On the other hand, some low-fertility countries are subject to negative population momentum. Their populations have aged enough to result in relatively small cohorts under age 30, and therefore even if fertility were to rise to replacement level, population size would decline for sometime.
Italy (1.3)
Russia (1.4)
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

21. World’s 10 Largest Countries in Population
2007
Country Population (millions)
China 1,318
India 1,132
United States 302
Indonesia 232
Brazil 189
Pakistan 169
Bangladesh 149
Nigeria 144
Russia 142
Japan 128
2050
Country Population (millions)
India 1,747
China 1,437
United States 420
Indonesia 297
Pakistan 295
Nigeria 282
Brazil 260
Bangladesh 231
Dem. Rep. of Congo 187
Philippines 150

23. Life Expectancy @ Birth
Highest
Country Years
Japan 82
Australia 81
France 81
Iceland 81
Italy 81
Sweden 81
Switzerland 81
Austria 80
Canada 80
Israel 80
Malta 80
Netherlands 80
New Zealand 80
Norway 80
Singapore 80
Spain 80
Life Birth
What geographic patterns do you see in both the highest and lowest life expectancy categories?
Lowest
Country Years
Swaziland 33
Botswana 34
Lesotho 36
Zimbabwe 37
Zambia 38
Malawi 40
Angola 41
Afghanistan 42
Central African Republic 43
Mozambique 43

26. What trends/patterns do you see on the above charts?

28. Trends in Population Growth Worldwide
Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods
Percent increase per year
Millions
This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year.
Over the period , the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world’s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year).
From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers’ and grandmothers’ generations.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

29. The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition
Women worldwide are having fewer children in their lifetimes, from an average of five children born per woman in the 1950s to below three in 2000.
All of the most recent projections put forth by the UN assume that levels of childbearing will continue to decline in the next century.
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

30. 10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide
Average number of children per woman,
A TFR of about 2.1 is considered replacement level = the number of children needed to keep the population stable, excluding migration
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

31. Women of Childbearing Age
Number of Women 15 to 49
Billions
The number of women of childbearing age more than doubled between 1950 and 1990: from 620 million to over 1.3 billion.
Their numbers are expected to reach over 2 billion by the middle of this century, according to the UN’s medium projections.
The growing population of women in their childbearing years and their male partners will contribute to future world population growth, even if levels of childbearing continue to decline.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

32. Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction
Average number of children per woman
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

34. Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region
Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
In , infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years — up ten years from today.
Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years.
Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

35. Trends in Urbanization, by Region
Urban Population
Percent
Currently, world regions differ greatly in their levels of urbanization. In more developed regions and in Latin America and the Caribbean, over 70 percent of the population is urban, whereas in Africa and Asia, under 40 percent of the population is urban. By 2030, however, the urban proportion of these two regions will exceed 50 percent.
By 2030, roughly 60 percent of the world’s population will be living in urban areas.
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.

36. Age Distribution of the World’s Population
Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005
Millions
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
Age
0-4
Male
Female
Male
Female
Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries.
Almost one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In contrast, less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15.
Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents.
Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.