1. Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler
Sensitivity of Emissions and their Drivers to economic Growth and Fossil Fuel Availability: a regional Analysis
Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Elmar Kriegler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Promitheas Conference
Athens, 9-11 October 2013

2. Motivation and Objectives
Economic growth is an important determinant of energy demand and fossil fuel availability one of energy supply.
How do these two factors affect baseline developments and climate stabilization requirements?
Regional resource endowments and energy end use determine technology use and mitigation potential.
What are possible regional emission patterns and their drivers, and regional abatement strategies?
What are robust versus sensitive elements of scenarios for achieving a sustainable global energy future in compliance with ambitious climate protection goals across world regions?
Which findings are robust across world regions and when do regional characteristics prevail? 2 2 2

3. Scenarios Economic growth: Fossil fuel availability:
based on 2008 Revision of UN World Population Prospects
assumptions on speed of growth and convergence
these scenarios: medium population, fast convergence
Fossil fuel availability:
data on total size of fossil resource base, recovery rates
extraction costs
Stringency of climate protection:
no-policy and 450 ppm CO2-equiv concentration
overshoot and full when and where flexibility
A: Economic growth: GDP paths through adjustments of labor productivity; B: Reference assumptions on long-term fossil fuel availability, with a focus on variations of coal, oil, and gas: these assumptions lead to the development of different extraction cost curves; C: stringency of climate protection targets.
Drivers 
Policy
Medium Growth
Slow Growth
Fast Growth
Medium Fossils
High Fossils
Low Fossils
Baseline
BAU DEF
BAU SL Gr
BAU FS Gr
BAU HI Fos
BAU LO Fos
450 ppm CO2-equiv
450 DEF
450 SL Gr
450 FS Gr
450 HI Fos
450 LO Fos 3 3 3

4. REMIND Model
Multi-regional (11 regions) hybrid model with timespan
Coupled economic growth model, detailed energy system model, and simple climate model
Ramsey-type optimal growth, optimizing intertemporal global welfare
Production factors (capital, labor, and final energy) produce economic output (GDP) used for investments in capital stock, consumption, trade, and energy system expenditures 4 4 4

5. Regions
Europe
China
USA
Five major regions at different stages of their economic development (developed, emerging, developing)
India
Africa 5 5 5

6. Emissions - Default Baseline
Global cumulated emissions: ~65% of global cumulated emissions by investigated regions
Total emissions : China ~22%; USA and India ~13% each, Europe ~9%, Africa ~7%
Temporal trends
Developed: conservative changes but noteworthy increases at the second half of the century
Emerging and developing: initial sharp growth and then stabilizing or declining
Per capita emissions
US and Europe at the high end
China converges
Africa and India below world average despite considerable initial increases 6 6 6

7. Kaya Identity 7 7 7

8. Emissions Drivers – Baseline Economic Growth Scenarios
Findings on major emiters (total and per capita) remain robust
Higher emissions with faster growth
Drivers in emissions differences
Till 2050 almost entirely GDP and EI.
With faster growth, higher GDP (scenario assumptions) and lower EI (substitution of energy with capital, energy efficiency).
After 2050 also CI developments are important
With faster growth, higher fossils extraction but faster exchaustion and earlier switch towards renewables
Diverse CI reactions accross regions: inter-fuel substitution varies depending on price increases accross fuels and regions
Africa: till mid-century - sharp growth in CI and also population growth; GDP per capita and EI improvements grow steadily
after mid-century - lower population growth rates and CI improvements allow emissions to stabilize
India: till mid-century - mainly economic growth, insufficiently compensated by energy intensity improvements aggravated by population and CI
after mid-century - lower economic growth rates and CI and population decrease
China: similarly to India, sharp economic growth and only partly dampened by EI improvements, and then lower economic growth rates and CI and population decrease.
however, at last two decades CI starts to increase again.
Europe and US: that is similar to EUR and US, where after an initial decline, CI increase sharply at some point in time 8 8 8

9. Emissions Drivers – Baseline Fossil Fuel Scenarios
Findings on major emiters (total and per capita) more sensitive
Tendency for higher availabilty relating to higher emissions but numerous exceptions
Drivers in emissions differences
EI tend to be higher for high availability (limited price-induced energy-to-capital subtitution effect)
CI are the key drivers of changes in emissions
With higher fossils, higher oil shares (liquids), gas and coal (electricity) and lower renewables
Inter-fuel substitution (oil versus coal) can lead to counter-intuitive effects in some regions
Africa: till mid-century - sharp growth in CI and also population growth; GDP per capita and EI improvements grow steadily
after mid-century - lower population growth rates and CI improvements allow emissions to stabilize
India: till mid-century - mainly economic growth, insufficiently compensated by energy intensity improvements aggravated by population and CI
after mid-century - lower economic growth rates and CI and population decrease
China: similarly to India, sharp economic growth and only partly dampened by EI improvements, and then lower economic growth rates and CI and population decrease.
however, at last two decades CI starts to increase again.
Europe and US: that is similar to EUR and US, where after an initial decline, CI increase sharply at some point in time 9 9 9

10. Emissions – Climate policy
Total emissions:
Drastic reductions in all regions
Per capita emissions:
Convergence towards 2080
Economic growth variation: negligible change in CI, some variation in EI
Fossils Variation: both CI and EI unaffected 10 10 10

11. Emissions Drivers – Climate policy
Higher emission in baseline, higher emission requiremens
EI improvements mainly till 2050, most reductions through CI reductions
Greatest reductions: Africa, US, China, India, Europe
EI improve more in developing and emerging economies, lower CI when more BECCS
All regions develop their renewables capacities, BECCS, (nuclear), and reduce fossils
Technological implications of climate stabilization are robust. 11 11 11

12. Conclusions
Baseline emissions and emission reductions sensitive to scenario variation, but climate policy trajectories and regional technology portfolios robust towards massive emissions reductions through renewables deployment and fossils phase out.
China, the US, and India remain the greatest emiters, highlighting their importance for global climate.
Per capita emissions difference between advanced and developing economies remains in a no-policy world, while climate policy achieves greater convergence.
In climate policy, both EI and CI improvements important, but the effect of the latter dominates.
Relative fossil prices crutial for emissions patterns, but regional vulnerability to fossil fuel prices not relevant under climate policy.
Carbon free energy technologies boosted by faster growth, lower fossils availability, and carbon pricing.
Developing economies, such as Africa, might pose a significant opportunity for low carbon-development. 12 12 12

13. More information on RoSE:
Website:
Policy Brief with key messages
Special Issue in Climatic Change
Public available database
Acknowledgements: 13 13 13

14. BACK UP SLIDES 14 14 14

15. Energy Mixes – Default Baseline
Africa: till mid-century - sharp growth in CI and also population growth; GDP per capita and EI improvements grow steadily
after mid-century - lower population growth rates and CI improvements allow emissions to stabilize
India: till mid-century - mainly economic growth, insufficiently compensated by energy intensity improvements aggravated by population and CI
after mid-century - lower economic growth rates and CI and population decrease
China: similarly to India, sharp economic growth and only partly dampened by EI improvements, and then lower economic growth rates and CI and population decrease.
however, at last two decades CI starts to increase again.
Europe and US: that is similar to EUR and US, where after an initial decline, CI increase sharply at some point in time 15 15 15

16. Energy Mixes – Default Baseline
Africa: till mid-century - sharp growth in CI and also population growth; GDP per capita and EI improvements grow steadily
after mid-century - lower population growth rates and CI improvements allow emissions to stabilize
India: till mid-century - mainly economic growth, insufficiently compensated by energy intensity improvements aggravated by population and CI
after mid-century - lower economic growth rates and CI and population decrease
China: similarly to India, sharp economic growth and only partly dampened by EI improvements, and then lower economic growth rates and CI and population decrease.
however, at last two decades CI starts to increase again.
Europe and US: that is similar to EUR and US, where after an initial decline, CI increase sharply at some point in time 16 16 16

17. Emissions Drivers – Default Baseline
Economic growth and energy intensity (EI) improvements
Main drivers of emissions for all regions
Higher economic growth rates in developing and emerging economies (scenario assumptions)
Faster EI improvements (substitution of energy with capital, efficiency parameters)
Africa: till mid-century - sharp growth in CI and also population growth; GDP per capita and EI improvements grow steadily
after mid-century - lower population growth rates and CI improvements allow emissions to stabilize
India: till mid-century - mainly economic growth, insufficiently compensated by energy intensity improvements aggravated by population and CI
after mid-century - lower economic growth rates and CI and population decrease
China: similarly to India, sharp economic growth and only partly dampened by EI improvements, and then lower economic growth rates and CI and population decrease.
however, at last two decades CI starts to increase again.
Europe and US: that is similar to EUR and US, where after an initial decline, CI increase sharply at some point in time
Carbon Intensities (CI)
Important and affecting significantly temporal emissions trends
Africa and India, sharp increase (more fossils to fuel development) but then decline. Others, coal to substitute oil.
Population
More important in emerging and developing economies 17 17 17