1. Objectives and workflow
BACKGROUND AND
PROJECT PROPOSAL
Objectives and workflow
Odei Rey Orozko
September 2015, CERN, Geneva
21st MPS Meeting ,

2. OVERVIEW ON RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
BACKGROUND
OVERVIEW ON RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
Qualifications
Degree in Mathematics, University of the Basque Country (EHU)
Masters degree in Mathematical Modeling, Statistics and Computing, EHU
Previous work
Researcher at EHU, Mathematical modeling in finance, Department of Applied Mathematics.
Junior professional at ESS. Reliability Analysis for the accelerator. Statistical modeling in engineering systems and Data Analysis. Development of an Excel based tool for Reliability analysis (Excel vba and MatLab).
Researcher at EHU, Generation and modeling of dialogues based on stochastic structural models. Development of a python based software for dialogue generation and evaluation. Design of an algorithm to model Dialogues based on Stochastic Bi-Automaton.

3. OVERVIEW ON RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
Previous work at ESS
OVERVIEW ON RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
OVERVIEW ON RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
Base – Starting point
Reliability Analysis - November Rebecca Seviour.
All systems were listed in one excel file lines.
Different types of redundancy and repair cases were assumed to fine-tune the overall LINAC reliability and availability numbers.
Mission time = 144 h = 6 days.
Preliminary Reliability Analysis: Excel based model
Created one excel file per system.
Removed redundancy and repair assumptions.
Mission time = 1h according to input from XFWG on reliability
Identify failure rate/MTBF data source.
Identify and redefine structures and formulas behind.
Created statistical macro that calculates the overall reliability and availability numbers and creates a structure graph of the system.
We had a reliability analysis form Rebecca, done in November 2012.
An excel file of 600 lines, with all the system's analysis in there.
Different types of redundancy and repair cases were defined.
The mission time was 144 h.
What we did first was: create an excel file per system, remove the redundancy and repair assumptions and change mission time to 1h.
Then, we identified the MTBF data source, the structures behind each system and the formulas behind each calculation.
Finally, we created a macro based on the statistical model identified behind the excel file witch calculates the availability and reliability numbers among many others as Mean Down Time
But why using excel macros for reliability analysis when there are plenty of sophisticated software in the market for this purpose?

4. ONLINE LEARNING OF STOCHASTIC BI-AUTOMATON TO MODEL DIALOGUES
PREVIOUS WORK AT EHU
ONLINE LEARNING OF STOCHASTIC BI-AUTOMATON TO MODEL DIALOGUES
OVERVIEW ON RELIABILITY ANALYSIS
CORPUS Set 1
Initial DM
LearnedDM
Learning
Online Learning
1840 dialogues CORPUS
500 dialogues
x 5
CORPUS Set 2
Learning SU
Stg 1
Stg 2.1
Stg 2.2

5. Optimize the overall operational efficiency of accelerators
PROJECT PROPOSAL
OBJECTIVES
Availability and reliability studies.
Optimize Availability and Energy efficiency
Define maintenance and operational policies
Find the methods to identify critical parameters
Optimize the overall operational efficiency of accelerators
CLIC

6. OBJECTIVES PROJECT PROPOSAL
Comparative study of the modeling tools available.
Detection of the methods to identify the critical parameters.
Formulation of “best approaches” (existing, new mathematical models or methodologies).
Implementation and testing of the proposed new “best approaches”.
Comparison of the new modeling tools and existing ones.

7. Implementation, testing and comparison
PROJECT PROPOSAL
WORKFLOW
Literature review, study and trainning of the existing modeling tools and methods.
Explorative studies on CLIC
Comparison of the different modeling tools and how they perform for parameter sensitivity analysis.
Formulation of new mathematical models
Implementation, testing and comparison
Design of the best methodology for availability studies
Thesis definition
Thesis writing

8. WORKFLOW PROJECT PROPOSAL
Literature review, study and trainning of the existing modeling tools and the methods behind them.
Explorative studies on CLIC.
Comparison of the different modeling tools and how they perform for parameter sensitivity analysis.
Formulation of new mathematical models
Implementation, testing and comparison
Design of the best methodology for availability studies